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ruble

  • 9
    JUL12
    Ruble REER continued to weaken in June, declining 4.3% MoM

    The ruble real effective exchange rate weakened 4.3% MoM in June, intensifying from a drop of 1.7% MoM (CBR upgraded May data from -2.0% MoM), bringing the YTD change to a negative value of -0.4% (from +4.0% in January-May). The ruble fell against the dollar,...

  • 6
    JUL15
    RUB: 56.0 passed, what next?

    On Friday, trading activity and flows were subdued as the US market were closed for Independence Day. The MICEX reported total turnover of just USD 2.9bn in USDRUB. Meanwhile, all eyes were on the Greek referendum that took place on Sunday, so it is unsurprising that investors were generally cutting down on risk positions. In light of this, the EM FX index slipped 0.3-0.5%, with ZAR down 0.6% and TRY closing 0.2% in the red, while BRL dipped 1.2% and MXN declined 0.5%. The performance of commodity-based...

  • 3
    JUL15
    RUB: ahead of peers

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market turned around again, benefiting from oil’s recovery and the calm newsflow from Greece. RUB opened stronger, promptly touching the 55.60 level, but the next move came in the afternoon, when Brent scratched USD 62.0/bbl. In the evening, the oil market started to lose momentum, but a knee-jerk pull-back in the US dollar after the US jobs report helped RUB to hold its position. As a result, RUB firmed to 55.52 (+0.6%) against USD, while Brent closed at USD 60.8/bbl, surrendering...

  • 2
    JUL15
    RUB: back to base one

    Yesterday’s session in the Russian exchange market was the complete reverse of Tuesday’s. RUB kicked off on a stronger footing, with USDRUB stepping down to 55.30, from 55.60 at the opening. Stable crude oil helped to buoy risk sentiment in commodity-based currencies in the first half of the day, while expectations of a ‘last minute-last second’ deal for Greece underpinned EM and other risk assets in general. However, it was a day of conflicting Greek headlines, with reports that Prime Minister Alexis...

  • 1
    JUL15
    RUB: 56.0 proves a strong resistance level

    The price action in the Russian exchange market kicked off with a quick spike in USDRUB to 56.0. However, it only scratched (but failed to break) the mark, as many market participants started taking profits on long USDRUB positions here. Thus, in a couple of hours after the opening, USDRUB retreated down to 55.60 before settling around 55.80. Later, the oil market revived with the price of nearest Brent futures soaring 2.6% to USD 63.6/bbl, as reports continue to highlight problems in the negotiations...

  • 30
    JUN15
    RUB: export on the spikes

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market saw marked volatility. RUB kicked off on a softer footing right from the morning as global risk sentiment was undermined by concerns over Greece debt talks which, among other things, pushed the price of Brent crude oil down 1.4% to USD 60.5/bbl by the close. Hence, USDRUB quickly surged to 55.60 at the opening, but then retreated down to 55.30 as the market revealed a visible offer from exporters. Later in the day, USDRUB attempted twice more to break the 55.60 level...

  • 26
    JUN15
    RUB: flirting with exporters

    Yesterday, RUB surrendered another 0.4%, weakening to 54.70 against USD. The oil market provided no supportive backdrop, trading in the red for most of the day and going to USD 62.0/bbl (-0.1%) just before the close. During the session, USDRUB tried to break through 54.80 several times, but it seems that the export offer re-emerged at this level, providing strong resistance. On Monday, companies are due to pay CIT, so the presence of exporters might be visible at some levels today. However, in the...

  • 25
    JUN15
    RUB: export selling missed expectations

    Yesterday, global risk sentiment remained weak, weighing on EM currencies. RUB started to drift lower from the opening, disregarding oil’s flirtation with USD 63.5/bbl in the first half of the day. In the evening, RUB’s slippage accelerated, spurred by a sharp fall in oil prices as well as the absence of a compromise in the Greek debt talks. Thus, RUB weakened 1.1% against USD, edging down to 54.46. In turn, Brent declined to USD 62.1/bbl, losing 0.5% during the day. Trading turnover on the MICEX...

  • 24
    JUN15
    RUB: volatile session as global affairs in focus

    Yesterday, RUB firmed 0.2% against USD to end the session at 53.85 amid decent trading activity as MICEX reported USD 4.0bn in USDRUB turnover. The BASKET closed 0.9% in the black, as EURUSD dropped slightly below 1.12. During the day, USDRUB spiked to 54.65 as market participants were concerned by the uncertainty surrounding the Greek negotiations, while export was on the side lines. However, in the second half of the day, crude oil’s market rally (Brent ended almost 2.0% in black) prompted some...

  • 23
    JUN15
    RUB: on firmer ground

    The Russian FX market started the week on a positive note, propelled by export selling activity and oil’s attempts to recover. However, trading volumes changed little, with the MICEX reporting USD 3.6bn of turnover. RUB opened strong, flirting with the 53.50 level, but later moved a bit lower, as export selling flows slowed and oil prices lost momentum. Hence, RUB firmed only 0.2%, stopping at 53.94 against USD. In the meantime, Brent finally managed to rebound, rising 0.7% to USD 61.2/bbl by the...

  • 22
    JUN15
    RUB: following oil

    On Friday, the Russian FX market corrected, dragged down by the fall in oil prices and slowdown in export hard currency selling flow. Brent had a heavy session, losing 3.4% during the day and bottoming to USD 60.8/bbl. Moreover, it seems that the support from the export side moderated on Friday as MICEX turnover amounted to only USD 3.5bn. Given this backdrop, RUB kicked off on a weaker footing right in the morning, slipping to 54.04 (-1.1%) against USD by the evening. However, we highlight that...

  • 19
    JUN15
    RUB: keeping pace

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market advanced further into the black, supported by export selling flows and the recovery in oil. The tax factor is going to be centre stage, so trading volumes increased visibly, with the MICEX reporting USD 5.1bn of turnover. In the morning, the solid export offer pushed USDRUB down to 53.10, but this factor soon started to fade away, letting RUB return to the opening levels for a while. By the end of the Moscow session, RUB resumed strengthening to close at 53.45 (+0...

  • 18
    JUN15
    RUB: bounce in the late trade

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market traded the Moscow session on a softer footing, settling on a downward trend right from the morning. By the end of the session, RUB was quoted at 54.22 against USD, surrendering 0.8% to the opening levels. Interestingly, RUB continued to trade apart from oil, which started the day with a 1.4% bounce. Later, oil lost ground, with Brent dropping sharply to USD 60.5/bbl. However, in the evening the non-event FOMC meeting spurred risk appetite, providing momentum for a...

  • 17
    JUN15
    RUB: on its own way

    Yesterday, RUB continued to move forward, paying little attention to oil’s unsuccessful attempts to recover. Trading activity moderated, with MICEX trading turnover going down to USD 3.8bn. The opening was strong, with RUB easily reaching the 54.0 level, although that proved to be a rather strong resistance level. A few minutes before the end of the Moscow session, RUB got a new impulse, firming to 53.79 (+1.4%) against USD by the close. Meantime, Brent surrendered 0.3%, edging down to USD 62.1/bbl...

  • 16
    JUN15
    RUB: regaining positions

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market had a strong session, fully disregarding shaky oil dynamics. Trading activity was solid, with the MICEX printing USD 4.8bn of turnover. RUB opened slightly firmer, marking near the 55.10 level in anticipation of the CBR decision. Immediately after the press release, RUB saw a short-lived volatility spike, but quickly returned to the 55.10 mark. However, by the end of the day, RUB strengthened to 54.52 (+1.3%) against USD thanks to crude’s recovery and the slightly...

  • 15
    JUN15
    RUB: rolling back

    RUB lost momentum at the end of the week, as the crude oil market saw a decent correction: Brent has lost near 3.0% since Wednesday, closing at USD 62.7/bbl on Friday. Thus, the market ignored the previous week’s IEA report that said that demand for crude was certainly growing faster-than-expected, as it raised its forecast for global demand growth both in 1Q15 (+1.7mmb/d) and for FY15 as a whole (+1.4mmb/d), the latter being the largest increase since 2010 (which reflected the recovery from the...

  • 11
    JUN15
    RUB: trailing oil dynamics

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market had a busy session, with MICEX reporting USD 5.4bn of turnover. RUB continued to strengthen, following the oil market quotes. For most of the session, Brent was trading near the USD 65.2/bbl level, but stepped back in the evening to close at USD 64.6/bbl (+0.6%). RUB immediately followed this reversal, moving away from intraday highs. As a result, it closed at 54.35, gaining 2.2% against USD. The EM FX universe had a good session too, with the EM FX index firming...

  • 10
    JUN15
    RUB: oil supports the market

    Yesterday, volatility on the Russian FX market calmed down, while RUB got solid support due to the 4.5% uptick in the oil prices (Brent closed at USD 64.2/bbl yesterday). RUB opened a bit softer, having scratched the 56.10 level, but in the afternoon the oil factor started to play a major role, so RUB settled on a rising trend, ending the session at 55.55 (+0.8%) against USD. Trading activity slightly decreased, with MICEX turnover volumes printing USD 3.6bn. In the meantime, according to the latest...

  • 9
    JUN15
    RUB: volatile session

    Yesterday, volatility on the Russian FX market increased markedly, with USDRUB swinging in the 55.70-56.30 range during the day. At the same time, trading activity moderated: MICEX reported only USD 3.8bn of turnover. In the morning, RUB opened weaker, but found firmer ground in the middle of the session, going for a moment below the 55.70 level. Later, the resumed correction on the oil market, coupled with hawkish geopolitical rhetoric at the G7 summit added a bitter tone to market sentiment, but...

  • 8
    JUN15
    RUB: bounce up

    On Friday, RUB regained ground thanks to a recovering crude oil market amid a rather active trading session. Hence, MICEX reported USD 6.0bn in USDRUB turnover. RUB firmed 0.5% against USD to close at 56.13, but the session was volatile, with USDRUB swinging between 55.6 and 57.2. Meanwhile, Brent surged 1.9% on the day to USD 62.2/bbl, while the day’s lows were at USD 60/bbl. Global headlines took centre stage at the end of last week. The US jobs report for May was rather strong. Nonfarm payroll...

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