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ruble

  • 9
    JUL12
    Ruble REER continued to weaken in June, declining 4.3% MoM

    The ruble real effective exchange rate weakened 4.3% MoM in June, intensifying from a drop of 1.7% MoM (CBR upgraded May data from -2.0% MoM), bringing the YTD change to a negative value of -0.4% (from +4.0% in January-May). The ruble fell against the dollar,...

  • 31
    MAR15
    RUB: holding ground

    Yesterday, RUB saw marked pressure in the morning as USDRUB soared to 58.60. It is fair to say that the EURUSD slump fuelled this spike to a certain extent, though RUB slipped 1.1% against the BASKET during the first trading hours. However, later in the session RUB pared the earlier losses as the crude oil market recovered, while the payment of corporate profit tax weighed on the money market rates, pushing them up to the CBR’s offer on the FX swap market. In the end, Brent ended 0.8% in black at...

  • 30
    MAR15
    RUB: subdued session

    On Friday, trading activity visibly slowed with the MICEX reporting USD 3.2bn in turnover. RUB started softly from the off and went on to end the day 0.9% weaker. The crude oil price declined to USD 54.3/bbl (-4.3%) – as expected, military conflict in Yemen is not likely to sustain high oil prices in the medium term. The EM FX index performed a tad better, slipping 0.5% against USD. Meantime, TRY and BRL again lagged behind, losing 0.6% and 2.1%, respectively. Citing the improved juncture on the...

  • 27
    MAR15
    RUB: consolidation

    Yesterday, Brent recovered 4.6% to USD 56.8/bbl, on the back of political tensions in Yemen. However, it appears that many investors so far see the surge in crude oil as temporary. Hence, as in the previous sessions, RUB started strong, scratching 56.50 in the morning. However, as we expected, at this point the bid strengthened, pushing USDRUB quickly back up towards the opening levels. Exporters continued to sell, but volumes moderated as the peak of the tax period passed. Overall, RUB closed at...

  • 26
    MAR15
    RUB: refreshing year highs

    Yesterday, RUB remained well bid, and USDRUB had already declined to 56.90 in the morning. Exporters continued actively selling hard currency as the tax period proceeded, while we understand that many market participants are stuck in long USDRUB positions accumulated above the 60.0 level. As a result, there is a lack of incremental bid right now to balance the export selling flows. Meanwhile, MICEX reported total turnover in USDRUB of almost USD 5.0bn yesterday. The recovery crude prices also provided...

  • 25
    MAR15
    RUB: returns to start of year levels

    Yesterday, RUB gained 1.8% against USD, while Brent slipped to USD 53.22/bbl (-1.1%). Thus, USDRUB closed at 57.70, having touched 57.50 in the afternoon. The MICEX reported decent turnover of USD 4.5bn, as exporters were actively selling ahead of the VAT and MET payments due today. The next key tax date is 30 March, when companies pay corporate profit tax. In the EM FX universe, KRW and ZAR were the top performers, firming 0.9% against USD, while TRY weakened 0.4%, so the EM FX index strengthened...

  • 24
    MAR15
    RUB: double support

    RUB started the week on a positive note, appreciating to 58.75 (+0.9%) against USD. Yesterday, RUB gained double support, as the tax week kicked off and Brent bounced 1.1% to USD 53.79/bbl. Meanwhile, the EM FX index rose 1.2%, with BRL in the lead, advancing 3.1% against USD. Commodity-based currencies were also well bid: NOK firmed 1.8%, while NZD and AUD ended the day 1.1% and 1.4% in the black. On Friday, the CBR held its FX 312-P auction, allocating USD 950mn for one year at 1.45%. At the same...

  • 23
    MAR15
    RUB: in line with peers and crude

    On Friday, RUB gained 1.3% against USD to close at 59.29. In the morning, USDRUB opened near 60.0 amid the lacklustre performance from crude oil. However, risk sentiment strengthened during the session as export continued selling hard currency, while Brent bounced up 1.4% to USD 53.20/bbl at the end of the day. Meanwhile, the EM FX index gained 1.0-1.4% vs. USD, with ZAR up 2.4% and TRY advancing 1.2%, whilst MXN and BRL closed at 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, against USD. In addition, commodity-backed...

  • 20
    MAR15
    RUB: close to peers

    Several days of strong RUB performance was followed by a correction yesterday. In the morning, USDRUB moved up to 60.10, and went on to hover around this level for most of the Moscow session. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s upturn in oil prices was short-lived: at the end of the day, Brent declined 3.8% to USD 52.21/bbl. However, once again RUB remained largely resilient to the swings in the crude oil market: USDRUB closed at 60.09. Hence, RUB weakened 1.1% against USD, in line with peers. The EM FX index...

  • 19
    MAR15
    RUB: getting used to a tough environment?

    Yesterday morning, RUB once again raised eyebrows with strong resilience to the sluggish performance in oil prices. Later, Brent bounced up 5.8% to USD 54.3/bbl, which, in turn, was not ignored by the Russian FX market. In the end, RUB closed at 59.45 against USD (+3.4%), well ahead of EM FX peers. In particular, ZAR advanced 2.4% against USD, TRY gained 1.7%, and MXN ended the day 1.9% in the black. Commodity-based currencies traded in the black as well, with NOK up 1.8% against USD, whereas AUD...

  • 18
    MAR15
    RUB: outperforming peers

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market continued to impress, with solid resistance towards falling crude oil prices. RUB kicked off on a stronger footing and despite some intraday volatility (USDRUB touched 62.0) in the end firmed 1.3% against USD at 61.45. Meanwhile, Brent bottomed at USD 51.33/bbl, slipping another 2.3%, although the nearest futures (CO1) recovered towards the end of the session and closed flat. Trading flows moderated slightly, with MICEX reporting USDRUB turnover at USD 4.0bn. Overall...

  • 17
    MAR15
    RUB: resisting oil

    Yesterday, RUB opened a tad stronger with USDRUB touching 61.90. However, oil prices dynamics later turned negative, which undermined risk sentiment in the Russian exchange market. USDRUB gradually started surging up and in the evening, when Brent dropped to USD 51.2/bbl, it spiked to 62.6 highs. The strength of the US dollar continued to weigh on EM equity markets and commodity prices. The US dollar is supported by the divergence in monetary policy between the US and the rest of the world. However...

  • 16
    MAR15
    RUB: oil correction shapes price action

    On Friday, the Russian FX market kicked off on a stronger footing despite mounting pressure on EM FX in general and the still lacklustre performance of the crude market. By mid-day, USDRUB dropped to 60.70. However, at the end of the day RUB retreated, as the Brent price had slipped to USD 53.8/bbl (-4.5%). In the light of this, USDRUB closed at 62.23, i.e. RUB weakened 1.5%. Meanwhile, NOK declined 1.3% and the EM FX index fell around 1.1-1.6% with TRY closing down 2.1%, BRL lost 2.6% and ZAR was...

  • 13
    MAR15
    RUB: trailing oil

    Yesterday’s session in the Russian FX market was fairly volatile, amid relatively modest trading flow: MICEX reported only USD 3.3bn in USDRUB turnover. In the morning, RUB continued appreciating, fuelled in particular by the further recovery in the crude oil market. Hence, by midday USDRUB had slipped to 60.40, which proved to be a turning point as crude pared earlier gains. By the end of the day, Brent declined 1.5% to settle at USD 56.3/bbl. Subsequently, USDRUB surged to 61.28, yet RUB still...

  • 12
    MAR15
    RUB: holding ground

    Yesterday, RUB bounced up 1.2% against USD to 61.69. In the morning, USDRUB spiked to 63.0 amid decent trading flow as Brent continued slipping lower. However, that proved to be a strong resistance level. We noted some selling from export at these levels, yet more important was the profit-taking flow on short RUB positions, which were likely accumulated before. Later, crude oil started recovering, which provided certain support to RUB bulls. At the end of the day, Brent closed 2.3% in the black at...

  • 11
    MAR15
    RUB: in the tail of oil’s sharp correction

    Yesterday, Brent remained under pressure: at the end of the day, it slipped 3.7% to USD 56.0/bbl, while in March so far crude is down 9.5%. In general, global risk sentiment has soured: for major equity markets, it was a defensive day reflecting a combination of factors ranging from the apparent stalemate in the Greek debt talks, fresh data highlighting persistent Chinese PPI deflation and pressure on US bank stocks ahead of today’s publication by the Fed of the second round of its stress tests....

  • 10
    MAR15
    RUB: consolidation ahead of CBR’s policy meeting

    Yesterday, RUB closed little changed at 60.35 amid low trading flows, as the Russian FX market was closed for the public holiday. However, on Friday, RUB performed decently, with USDRUB trading near 59.50 in the middle of the session; by the end of the day RUB had strengthened 0.8% to 60.40. Overall, in the last week RUB has appreciated 3.6% against USD, outperforming all peers. The EM FX index declined 2.0-2.3% for the same period, while NOK weakened 3.0%. Meanwhile, Brent spot was down 4.5% last...

  • 6
    MAR15
    RUB: stronger, backed by export selling

    Yesterday, RUB enjoyed a strong session. At the end of the day, it firmed near 1.5% against USD to 60.89 and gained about 1.9% vs. EUR (67.2). RUB kicked off the morning in the black and continued to appreciate throughout the rest of the day. Brent traded in the black during the day, offering some support to the Russian FX market, but went on to close flat at USD 60.1/bbl. The key driver behind RUB’s performance, we think, was the increased hard currency selling flow from export, while the bid remained...

  • 5
    MAR15
    RUB: holding ground

    Trading flows in yesterday’s session remained subdued with total turnover in USDRUB of USD 2.8bn. USDRUB traded in a fairly tight range of 61.60-62.30 having closed at 61.8. Hence, RUB firmed near 0.1% against USD. However, RUB gained near 0.9% against EUR (68.5), as EURUSD dropped below the 1.11 level. Meanwhile, RUB traded against the generally weaker trend in other emerging markets. In particular, the EM FX index declined 0.5-0.8%, while NOK closed 0.8% in the red. The Brent crude price eased...

  • 4
    MAR15
    RUB: back in the black

    Yesterday’s session saw one of the lowest USDRUB volatilities in many days, while trading flows remained subdued with total turnover in the MICEX of just USD 2.8bn. Hence, for most of the day USDRUB traded in a range of 62.20-62.40. However, RUB firmed in the evening and closed 1.0% stronger against USD at 61.89. The Brent spot price moved up 0.3%, but futures (CO1) rallied 2.5% to USD 61.0/bbl, partially reversing the drop from previous days. As we have argued before, with the current level of crude...

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