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ruble

  • 9
    JUL12
    Ruble REER continued to weaken in June, declining 4.3% MoM

    The ruble real effective exchange rate weakened 4.3% MoM in June, intensifying from a drop of 1.7% MoM (CBR upgraded May data from -2.0% MoM), bringing the YTD change to a negative value of -0.4% (from +4.0% in January-May). The ruble fell against the dollar,...

  • 22
    MAY15
    RUB: flattish session

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market had an uneventful session, with RUB seeing marginal swings. RUB opened slightly weaker, going above the 50.0 mark (against USD), but soon the combination of stronger oil dynamics and export selling flows brought it back. However, the export support faded in the evening, and the balance on the market shifted towards FX buyers, pushing RUB a tad lower, to 49.98 (-0.4%). At the same time, Brent closed at USD 65.4/bbl, adding 2.7% during the day. The CBR continued its...

  • 21
    MAY15
    RUB: weak risk sentiment weighs on the market

    Yesterday, RUB continued to correct, weakening 0.5% against USD by the end of the session. In the meantime, BASKET closed just 0.3% in the red amid EUR’s global underperformance. USDRUB settled on a rising trend from the morning, peaking at 50.15 by midday. However, a recovery in oil prices provided just marginal support to the Russian FX market, so RUB ended the day at 49.77. In turn, Brent picked up 0.8%, climbing to USD 63.7/bbl. The EM FX space traded mixed, but the average index still firmed...

  • 20
    MAY15
    RUB: can’t resist oil

    Yesterday, risk sentiment on the Russian FX market was spoiled by a dive in oil prices as well as MinFin’s statements on FX purchase for external redemption financing. Later, in its commentaries to RIA news agency, the CBR clarified that MinFin was buying FX not through the open market, but directly from the CBR. In the afternoon, the oil factor began to play a major role, outweighing export selling flows. As a result, RUB corrected down 0.9% to 49.55 against USD, while the Brent price dipped 3.7%...

  • 19
    MAY15
    RUB: exporters support the market

    Yesterday, RUB appreciated another 0.9% against USD, ending the session at 49.10. Trading volumes on the MICEX remained subdued, at USD 3.2bn, while export selling flows were mainly seen in the first part of the day. As a result, USDRUB tested the 49.00 level in the morning, but found a strong resistance level there, consolidating in the 49.10-49.20 range for the rest of the day. Oil’s attempt to recover failed yesterday, with Brent slipping to USD 65.6/bbl (-0.3%), peaking by midday at USD 67.0/bbl...

  • 18
    MAY15
    RUB: flirting with 50.0

    At the end of the week, liquidity on the market worsened, with the MICEX reporting only USD 3.0bn of turnover on Friday. For most of the session, USDRUB was trading slightly above 50.00, but in the evening it moved lower, edging down at 49.53. In the meantime, the oil market provided little support for RUB, as Brent closed flat at USD 65.8/bbl. In contrast, EM FX currencies continued trading in the black, though they posted milder gains than before: MXN and TRY advanced 0.6% against USD, KRW rose...

  • 15
    MAY15
    RUB: alarmed by CBR’s FX interventions

    The CBR’s decision on FX interventions spooked the market yesterday, with USDRUB hiking to 50.60 as soon as the news hit the wires. Within a short time, USDRUB returned to 50.00, consolidating at this level amid a fragile oil recovery and the gradual increase of export selling flows (MICEX turnover picked up to USD 4.1bn, yesterday). At the close, RUB was quoted at 50.07 (-1.5%), while Brent was trading at USD 65.7/bbl, almost flat to the previous day. The EM FX universe remained in good shape, with...

  • 14
    MAY15
    RUB: fresh highs

    Yesterday, RUB posted a remarkable performance, easily moving below the 50.00 level first thing in the morning. The strong performance of the crude oil market underpinned the risk appetite in the Russian FX market. Additionally, global geopolitics looked favourable. Hence, in the end, RUB closed at 49.32 against USD, gaining 1.3% over the session. Meanwhile, Brent closed 0.7% in the red, as it stumbled down to USD 65.8/bbl after peaking at USD 67.2/bbl in the evening. The EM FX index firmed 0.6%...

  • 13
    MAY15
    RUB: a good start to the week

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market had a strong session, though liquidity remained poor, with MICEX volume turnover amounting to only USD 2.7bn. RUB opened flat, but continued on a stronger footing amid a surge in oil prices. At the end of the day, RUB closed at 49.97 against USD, having firmed 1.9% from Friday’s levels. In the meantime, Brent advanced to USD 66.3/bbl, posting rather volatile dynamics during the session. EM currencies continued to recover, with the EM FX index firming another 0.4%...

  • 12
    MAY15
    RUB: a step backward

    Friday’s session was rather slow, with the MICEX reporting only USD 3.2bn of turnover. RUB kicked off on a softer footing, moving further into the red amid low liquidity and jittery oil dynamics. Brent’s recovery in the morning was interrupted by a sudden dip to USD 63.0/bbl, so finally it closed just 0.3% stronger, at USD 64.3/bbl. At the end of the day, RUB weakened 1.2% against USD, edging down at 50.91. In contrast, the EM universe enjoyed good risk appetite: the EM FX index rose 0.5% against...

  • 8
    MAY15
    RUB: back in black

    Most of yesterday’s session in the Russian exchange market was inactive, in terms of both price action and flows: the MICEX reported only USD 3.4bn in USDRUB turnover. In the morning, RUB opened stronger amid a crude oil bounce, but later on USDRUB stayed in the 50.30-50.60 range until the evening. A couple of hours before the bell, USDRUB approached 50.0 but it finally closed at 50.32. RUB firmed 1.0% vs. USD. Interestingly, Brent ended the day deeply in the red, having lost 3.1% in price. The EM...

  • 7
    MAY15
    RUB: attempt to break 50.0 did not bear fruit

    Yesterday morning, RUB enjoyed strong momentum, buoyed by the continuing recovery in crude as Brent traded near 2.0% in the black. Hence, USDRUB quickly dropped to 50.0 and scratched 49.80-49.85 a few times during the session. However, the bid at these levels proved to be rather solid, which constantly pushed USDRUB above 50.0. In the evening, as the 50.0 mark remained an unbeatable resistance level, USDRUB quickly spiked and closed at 50.82, so RUB weakened 0.6% against USD. However, RUB surrendered...

  • 6
    MAY15
    RUB: on the wheels of oil

    Yesterday, Brent gained 2.3% (from last Thursday) to close at USD 66.4/bbl. Subsequently, RUB firmed 2.1% (also vs. Thursday) against USD and ended at 50.51. Meanwhile, the EM FX index declined 0.7% for the same period, with TRY being 1.2% in the red, whilst NOK was down 0.6%.

  • 5
    MAY15
    Local sovereign debt: back in the red

    On Thursday, the OFZ market saw yet another decent session, with the curve tightening near 20bp on the long end and about 30bp in the belly. Price-wise, RFBL 28 (YTM 10.60%) gained near 1.3pp, while RFLB 19 6.80 (YTM 10.9%) moved up to the same extent. Subsequently, the 5s10s OFZ spread moved up 10bp to -20bp. Regarding the impact on the market of the CBR's policy decision last week, we highlight that current OFZ trading levels assume medium-term inflation of near 8%, which is in line with the CBR’s...

  • 30
    APR15
    RUB: all eyes on the CBR

    Yesterday, RUB firmed 0.6% against USD, but only 0.3% against BASKET, as the non-event FOMC statement triggered EURUSD short covering. The FOMC noted that it saw the weakness in activity in 1Q15 as ‘transitory’ (real GDP was up only 0.2% annualised), while inflation is likely to go back up to 2%. The 8 May nonfarm payroll report is the likely decider for a June rate increase, though the consensus is still with September.   As the CBR’s meeting approaches, trading activity on the Russian FX market...

  • 28
    APR15
    Russia: more room for manoeuvre

    Since the CBR’s BoD meeting in March, data releases have provided additional evidence of stabilisation in depreciation expectations and the normalisation of the inflation run rate. First, the March CPI print demonstrated a sizable decline in sequential inflation, from 3.4% MoM SA in January 2015 to 1.4%. Furthermore, in April the run rate of inflation broke below the 0.2% WoW mark, signalling declining headline inflation driven by weakening demand. Second, the contraction in real wages reached -9...

  • 28
    APR15
    RUB: tax factor fades away

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market underwent a correction, as the export flow visibly abated with the end of the tax period. RUB kicked off softer from the morning, with the market starting to accumulate positions ahead of the CBR’s policy meeting on Thursday. The back down in oil prices put additional pressure on RUB, finally drawing it down 2.2% to 52.02. In turn, Brent surrendered 1.7% to close at USD 62.6/bbl. In the meantime, EM peers were trading strong, with the EM FX index closing 0.5% in the...

  • 27
    APR15
    RUB: holding ground

    On Friday, the Russian FX market opened strongly, with USDRUB nudging down to 50.20 amid solid export offer. However, the export flow dried up in the afternoon, and RUB began to surrender positions, as market participants were taking profits before the weekend. In the evening, RUB gained a stronger footing from the uptick in the oil prices, thus slipping just 0.1% to 50.87, finally. Brent climbed to USD 63.6/bbl (+1.6%), refreshing a new high of the year. Today VAT and MET are due, so RUB might enjoy...

  • 24
    APR15
    RUB: solid support

    Export selling flows, coupled with the continuing upturn in oil prices, left RUB no choice but to strengthen yesterday. In early trade, RUB rose 1.4% to 51.50 amid a decent export offer, then lingered there for a while. In the evening, the baton of market support passed from exporters to oil, so RUB advanced further, ending the day at 50.81 (+2.7%). In the meantime, Brent climbed 3.4% to USD 62.6/bbl, flirting with USD 63.0/bbl during the session. Trading activity on the Russian FX market was more...

  • 23
    APR15
    RUB: regaining ground

    Yesterday, export sales continued to provide support to the Russian FX market, though trading activity moderated visibly, with the MICEX reporting only USD 3.5bn of turnover. RUB gained a firmer footing right in the morning, moving steadily in one direction for the whole session. In the evening, the bounce in Brent gave a fresh impulse to RUB, so it closed at 52.19 against USD, thus firming 2.9%. In turn, Brent recovered 2.1%, settling at USD 60.5/bbl. The peak of tax payments falls next Monday and...

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