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ruble

  • 9
    JUL12
    Ruble REER continued to weaken in June, declining 4.3% MoM

    The ruble real effective exchange rate weakened 4.3% MoM in June, intensifying from a drop of 1.7% MoM (CBR upgraded May data from -2.0% MoM), bringing the YTD change to a negative value of -0.4% (from +4.0% in January-May). The ruble fell against the dollar,...

  • 27
    AUG15
    RUB: a small step forward

        Yesterday’s session was rather volatile for the Russian FX market, though oil did not post any substantial swings, and made timid attempts to recover. Trading flows declined a bit, but still remained decent, with MICEX turnover amounting to USD 6.2bn. At the opening, RUB strengthened to 68.40 against USD, but the momentum soon faded, and in the afternoon USDRUB was already flirting with 70.00. Brent was trading in a quite narrow range of USD 43.1-43.6/bbl, and even fresh EIA crude stock statistics...

  • 26
    AUG15
    RUB: Turnaround Tuesday

    Following Black Monday, it was Turnaround Tuesday, aided by a belated cut in interest rates and reserve requirements from the PBOC. A 7.6% drop in the Shanghai Composite index presumably provided the reason for the move. The response from the PBOC was enough to lift market sentiment, resulting in an increase in oil prices, the US dollar and some EM equity markets, with the Russian market being among them. Already in the morning, USDRUB moved below the 70.00 level and it continued to slide for the...

  • 25
    AUG15
    RUB: through the global turbulence

    It was a ‘Black Monday’ for the global equity markets, with an 8.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite setting the tone as the Chinese authorities failed to ratify market expectations of either a cut in interest rates or a reduction in banks’ reserve requirements. Elsewhere, last week’s rout intensified, with the S&P500 index plunging some 12% from this year’s high. The Dow was down 16% and the NASDAQ Biotech index dropped 18%. With the probability of a Fed rate hike diminishing, the DXY fell below its...

  • 24
    AUG15
    RUB: global risk-off and slump in oil shape Russian FX performance

    The oil market did not provide any relief for RUB on Friday. In the morning, RUB slipped to 68.20 against USD as Brent scratched USD 46/bbl. However, export hard currency selling provided some support for the market, and so USDRUB traded in a narrow range of 68.15-68.25 until mid-day as exporters faded every spike. Tomorrow, VAT and MET are due, so export selling will likely intensify today, but it would not offset the oil factor, as Brent slipped to USD 44.3/bbl this morning. Meanwhile, on Friday...

  • 21
    AUG15
    RUB: at oil’s mercy

      Falling oil prices continued to determine the direction of the Russian FX market. RUB opened weaker, tracking oil’s slide below USD 47/bbl. At noon, USDRUB peaked at 67.57, as Brent bottomed out at USD 46.3/bbl. At these levels, the oil market found support, going above the waterline at some point and providing firmer ground for RUB. However, the news about the pick-up in EIA US crude stocks (+2.6mmbbl last week) stopped oil’s spurt, with Brent plunging to USD 46.6/bbl (-1.2%) by the close. Having...

  • 20
    AUG15
    RUB: hammered by oil; KZT devaluates 23%

    The beginning of the session was quite supportive for RUB, which firmed to 65.55 against USD. Trading activity in the first half of the day was subdued, with USDRUB marking at 65.70, as Brent was hovering around USD 48.8/bbl, providing no clear signals regarding the direction of the next move. A storm broke in the evening, when oil lost ground, crashing to below USD 47/bbl. Trading activity immediately revived, and RUB easily surrendered 66.00 against USD amid decent trading. By the close, MICEX...

  • 19
    AUG15
    RUB: in a narrow range

    Yesterday, trading activity remained subdued, with MICEX turnover totalling USD 3.5bn. In the first trading minutes, USDRUB touched 65.90 as Brent revisited local lows, having slipped to USD 48.30/bbl. However, some profit taking emerged here, which helped RUB to recover to 65.20. For the rest of the day, USDRUB moved slowly higher and closed at 65.83 (-0.5%). The performance of the crude oil market is still the main driver for the Russian FX market, in our view. Yesterday, Brent once again failed...

  • 17
    AUG15
    RUB: scratching 65.00

    On Friday, trading activity visibly declined, with MICEX reporting only USD 3.3bn of turnover. Amid rather thin liquidity RUB was trading on its own trajectory, paying little attention to the oil market. In the morning, USDRUB approached 65.00, but failed to go higher, consolidating near 64.80 for most of the session. In the evening, when liquidity almost entirely faded away, RUB suddenly made an attempt to recover, testing 64.40 against USD. However, the momentum was short-lived and by the close...

  • 14
    AUG15
    RUB: a step backward

    The beginning of the session looked promising yesterday, with RUB easily moving below 64.00 against USD at the opening. Oil was flirting with USD 50.3/bbl, providing a supportive background for the Russian FX market. However, the 64.00 mark turned out to be a strong resistance level for RUB, which rolled back to 64.20 by noon. The downward revision of EIA forecasts spoiled the sentiment on the oil market, so Brent lost ground, crashing to USD 49.2/bbl (-0.9%). Given the relatively thin liquidity...

  • 13
    AUG15
    RUB: addicted to oil

    The bounce on the oil market provided some support to RUB yesterday. Trading activity moderated a bit, with MICEX turnover declining to USD 4.7bn. At the opening, USDRUB broke through 65.00, but found a strong resistance level there. The oil market bounced, with Brent moving above the USD 49/bbl already in the morning. However, for most of the session RUB contemplated oil’s recovery, hovering indecisively in the 64.5-64.8 range. In the evening, the oil factor eventually outweighed, and USDRUB moved...

  • 12
    AUG15
    RUB: it’s all about oil

    The uptick in in crude prices was short lived, and yesterday oil resumed its correction, dragging down the Russian FX market. RUB opened weaker, but Brent’s spike to USD 51.0/bbl gave an impression for an instant that a bounce was about to happen. However, from then until the end of the session, Brent was moving south, finally edging down to USD 49.2/bbl (-2.4%). With no support from the oil market, RUB started to surrender its previous gains amid fairly decent trading flow (MICEX turnover amounted...

  • 11
    AUG15
    RUB: roller-coaster trading

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market made a remarkable move, supported by the U-turn in oil dynamics. The opening was weak: USDRUB scratched 64.70 in the first trading minutes, and looked as though it would go further north over the rest of the session. However, moderate liquidity contained further RUB weakening, with the latter consolidating in the 64.2-64.5 range. In the evening, the oil market bounced, likely encouraged by the growth in China’s crude imports (4.1% MoM and 29.3% YoY), so Brent surged...

  • 10
    AUG15
    RUB: jittery session

    On Friday, the Russian FX market was rather volatile amid increased trading activity – MICEX turnover amounted to USD 4.7bn. RUB opened a bit stronger, supported by the recovery on the oil market in the morning. However, in the afternoon oil dipped below the waterline, moving steadily deeper into the red over the rest of the session. Hence, by noon USDRUB hit 64.50 and rolled back to 64.10-64.20 as investors had been waiting for the release of the US jobs report.

  • 7
    AUG15
    RUB: at a crossroads

    Yesterday, USDRUB spiked at 64.0 during the first trading hour. Later, RUB touched 64.40 against USD, which turned out to be the lowest point of the entire day. However, except for the morning's volatility, the rest of the session was range bound, trading in the 64.00-64.20 range amid fairly modest flows. Overall, MICEX reported near USD 4.1bn in USDRUB turnover. EM was of no guidance: on average EM FX ended slightly in the black. However, the underlying performance was very mixed: BRL lost 1.4%...

  • 6
    AUG15
    RUB: oil spoils track record

    The beginning of yesterday’s session was quite encouraging. At the opening, USDRUB dived to 62.60 amid a fragile bounce on the oil market, consolidating a bit higher in the afternoon. For most of the session, Brent was trading in a narrow range, providing a similar trading pattern for RUB. However, just a few minutes before the end of the Moscow session, oil lost ground, plunging to USD 49.2/bbl. This move immediately translated into the Russian FX market, with USDRUB jumping to 63.70. By the close...

  • 5
    AUG15
    RUB: regaining positions

    Bounce in oil prices set a positive backdrop for the Russian FX market yesterday. At the opening, RUB returned below 63.00 against USD, encouraged by Brent’s move above USD 50.0/bbl. In the afternoon, Brent peaked at USD 50.40/bbl, but lost momentum, stepping down from intra-day highs. USDRUB immediately reacted, moving away from 65.55. By the evening, Brent dropped back to USD 50.0/bbl, but still gained 1.0% during the session. RUB firmed 0.7% against USD, closing at 63.10. In the meantime, commodity-based...

  • 4
    AUG15
    RUB: in tandem with oil

    Yesterday, RUB saw heavy pressure, hammered by crude’s plunge to below USD 50.0/bbl. Oil started to fall in the morning, and moved down nonstop for the rest of the day. By the evening, Brent had lost 5.2%, crashing to USD 49.5/bbl and printing one of the weakest results of the current year. Like oil, RUB settled on a downward trend from the open, finally stopping at 63.55 (-2.9%) against USD. Trading activity was decent, with MICEX reporting USD 5.3bn of turnover. Against other commodity-based currencies...

  • 3
    AUG15
    RUB: dragged down by oil

    On Friday, the Russian FX market did not find any support. In the morning, RUB surrendered the 60.25 level against USD, in anticipation of the CBR’s BoD decision. After the announcement of a 50bp cut, RUB slipped to 61.10 vs. USD for a while, but quickly returned to the initial position. However, at this time, the crude market came to the forefront, with Brent plunging to USD 52.2/bbl (-2.1%) by the end of the session. Hence, the pressure on RUB resumed, pushing it down to 61.71 (-3.1%) against USD...

  • 31
    JUL15
    RUB: risk sentiment weakens

    The bounce in risk sentiment was short-lived, and yesterday the Russian FX market returned to correction mode. Despite the uptick in the price of crude in the morning, USDRUB climbed to 59.00 at the opening and continued to move north for the rest of the session. In the evening, Brent lost momentum, first falling to the level of the previous close and then slipping to USD 53.31/bbl (-0.1%). As a result, RUB weakened 1.8% against USD, ending the session at 59.73. The EM FX universe also traded in...

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