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oil

  • 20
    MAY15
    RUB: can’t resist oil

    Yesterday, risk sentiment on the Russian FX market was spoiled by a dive in oil prices as well as MinFin’s statements on FX purchase for external redemption financing. Later, in its commentaries to RIA news agency, the CBR clarified that MinFin was buying FX not through the open market, but directly from ...

  • 6
    MAY15
    RUB: on the wheels of oil

    Yesterday, Brent gained 2.3% (from last Thursday) to close at USD 66.4/bbl. Subsequently, RUB firmed 2.1% (also vs. Thursday) against USD and ended at 50.51. Meanwhile, the EM FX index declined 0.7% for the same period, with TRY being 1.2% in the red, whilst NOK was down 0.6%.

  • 6
    MAY15
    Oil and gas – tax breaks for companies using Russian equipment in exploration might be introduced

    Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has requested that the ministries of Finance, Economy, Energy and Natural Resources develop a mechanism of tax breaks for Russian oil and gas companies using domestic equipment in exploration activities, according to Kommersant. The mechanism might imply deductions of exploration expenses from taxable income, starting from 2016. No further details are available yet. The ministries ...

  • 20
    APR15
    Oil companies might get easier access to hard-to-recover oil

    The Ministry of Natural Resources has suggested easing access to hard-to-recover oil via cancelling auction payments and granting licences based on requests, according to Sergei Donskoy, the Minister of Natural Resources, Kommersant reports. The only requirement within the licence would be to start operating on schedule. Under current ...

  • 17
    APR15
    RUB: flat in spite of higher oil

    Yesterday, trading activity on the FX market increased, with MICEX reporting USD 4.5bn of USDRUB turnover. During Moscow trading hours, RUB was a bit volatile and paid little attention to the continuing recovery in crude prices. However, late in the evening RUB gained a stronger footing, moving sharply to 49.65 from the 50.10 seen mid-day. Hence, RUB closed at 49.81 (-0.2%), and Brent jumped 3.3% to USD 62.2/bbl. The EM market closed in the black, with the EM FX index up 0.5% against USD. ZAR outperformed...

  • 16
    APR15
    Oil companies – FAS might initiate investigation into recent kerosene price hike – neutral

    The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) might initiate an investigation into the recent kerosene price increase, according to Igor Artemiev, the Head of the regulator, Vedomosti reports. The tax manoeuvre has set the export duty for kerosene at 48% of oil export duty in 2015, from 65% in 2014. As a result of the change in both the policy and the macro environment, the kerosene domestic market premium has decreased from USD 54/t in 4Q14 to USD -96/t in 1Q15, for the central region, we calculate. As ...

  • 16
    APR15
    RUB: encouraged by oil

    Yesterday, RUB enjoyed another strong session. At the opening, USDRUB dipped 1.0% to 50.50, consolidating at this level until the evening. However, rising oil prices spurred further RUB strengthening, pulling USDRUB below 50.00. As a result, RUB gained 2.5% on the day, closing at 49.73, its highest since December. Meanwhile, Brent climbed 4.5% to USD 60.2/bbl. Despite the start of the tax period, trading ...

  • 15
    APR15
    Russian Oil & Gas – wholesale kerosene prices hiked 26% for the last two months on SPIMEX

    ... to the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) to investigate the recent kerosene price hike at airports. According to the paper, fuel prices at some airports rose 10-15% for the last month. The tax manoeuvre has set the export duty for kerosene at 48% of oil export duty in 2015, from 65% in 2014. As a result of the change in both the policy and the macro environment, the kerosene domestic market premium has decreased from USD 54/t in 4Q14 to USD -96/t in 1Q15, for the central region, we calculate. As ...

  • 15
    APR15
    Oil companies might gain access to offshore oil deposits

    Oil companies might get access to offshore oil deposits if they are Russian owned, experienced in offshore development and have sufficient financial resources to fund the project, according to Denis Khramov, Deputy Minister of Natural Resources, Vedomosti ...

  • 16
    MAR15
    RUB: oil correction shapes price action

    ... Meanwhile, NOK declined 1.3% and the EM FX index fell around 1.1-1.6% with TRY closing down 2.1%, BRL lost 2.6% and ZAR was 1.5% in the red. In our view, investor focus on the Russian exchange market is set to switch more to the performance of the crude oil market, as Brent's price dipped below USD 55/bbl. On the other hand, we are entering the tax period with the heaviest payments (VAT, MET) due next week. Subsequently, the increased export selling flow could provide a certain support for the RUB.

  • 13
    MAR15
    RUB: trailing oil

    Yesterday’s session in the Russian FX market was fairly volatile, amid relatively modest trading flow: MICEX reported only USD 3.3bn in USDRUB turnover. In the morning, RUB continued appreciating, fuelled in particular by the further recovery in the crude oil market. Hence, by midday USDRUB had slipped to 60.40, which proved to be a turning point as crude pared earlier gains. By the end of the day, Brent declined 1.5% to settle at USD 56.3/bbl. Subsequently, USDRUB surged to 61.28, yet RUB still firmed ...

  • 12
    MAR15
    Oils – idea of tax experiment in oil industry receives preliminary approval

    Arkady Dvorkovich, the Deputy Prime Minister, has approved the idea of a tax on financial results for oil companies, Vedomosti reports. The list of 12 pilot projects that will participate in the experiment is to be selected from 35 submitted by oil companies, the newspaper reports. The possible criteria are small fields with low debits and no tax relief....

  • 11
    MAR15
    RUB: in the tail of oil’s sharp correction

    Yesterday, Brent remained under pressure: at the end of the day, it slipped 3.7% to USD 56.0/bbl, while in March so far crude is down 9.5%. In general, global risk sentiment has soured: for major equity markets, it was a defensive day reflecting a combination of factors ranging from the apparent stalemate in the Greek debt talks, fresh data highlighting persistent Chinese PPI deflation and pressure on US bank stocks ahead of today’s publication by the Fed of the second round of its stress tests....

  • 6
    MAR15
    Russian Oils – wholesale gasoline prices rose 8-15% over the last three weeks

    ... prices for gasoline on the St Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange rose 8-15% over the last three weeks. In the Central Region, ULR wholesale is up 14.6% and ULP has gained 8.3%. The tax manoeuvre has set the export duty for gasoline at 78% of oil export duty in 2015, from 90% in 2014. As a result, in 1Q15 the ULR netback has jumped 30% from 4Q14, we calculate. As we have noted before, were the internal market premium for oil products (namely, gasoline) to move from zero to negative territory,...

  • 6
    MAR15
    Oil and Gas - High-beta sector

    This morning, we have published Russian Oil and Gas - High-beta sector. Excerpts from the front page are given below. Oil stocks have risen 22% YTD in 2015, outperforming the RTS on its way up on the back of strengthening oil prices. This supports our conviction that oil has changed from being ...

  • 12
    FEB15
    RUB: oil down further

    ... currencies: NOK weakened 0.9% against USD, while NGN lost 2.2%; AUD and NZD were 0.5-0.7% down. Trading flows in USDRUB remained subdued, with total MICEX turnover just USD 3.2bn yesterday. In the morning, RUB opened under pressure on the back of the oil correction: at noon, USDRUB traded near 66.30 before moving up to 66.75 toward the evening. However, late in the session, RUB regained ground, apparently amid some optimism regarding the outcome of the Normandy Format group meeting in Minsk. RUB closed ...

  • 11
    FEB15
    RUB: crude oil correction weighs on risk sentiment

    Yesterday, trading flows remained subdued, with total USDRUB turnover in the MICEX of just USD 3.3bn. During the day, RUB traded heavy amid a sluggish performance from crude oil. Hence, Brent ended 1.5% down at USD 56.3/bbl, while nearest futures (CO1) slipped 3.3% to USD 56.4/bbl. In addition, the EM FX index declined 0.6-0.8% vs. USD with ZAR and TRY down around 0.8%, whilst BRL slipped 2.2%. USDRUB kicked off near 65.20 ...

  • 6
    FEB15
    Oils – adjustments to tax manoeuvre parameters might not be introduced before 2H15

    ... 2H15. No details have been provided yet. We have said on a number of occasions that the tax manoeuvre, introduced on 1 January 2015, might have unpredictable consequences, which means manual governmental interventions ahead. Lower global prices for oil and oil products, along with a significant depreciation in the rouble, mean that its effect could well differ significantly from what was initially planned. According to our calculations, the likely result is that profitability at many of Russia’s ...

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