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oil

  • 16
    MAR15
    RUB: oil correction shapes price action

    ... Meanwhile, NOK declined 1.3% and the EM FX index fell around 1.1-1.6% with TRY closing down 2.1%, BRL lost 2.6% and ZAR was 1.5% in the red. In our view, investor focus on the Russian exchange market is set to switch more to the performance of the crude oil market, as Brent's price dipped below USD 55/bbl. On the other hand, we are entering the tax period with the heaviest payments (VAT, MET) due next week. Subsequently, the increased export selling flow could provide a certain support for the RUB.

  • 13
    MAR15
    RUB: trailing oil

    Yesterday’s session in the Russian FX market was fairly volatile, amid relatively modest trading flow: MICEX reported only USD 3.3bn in USDRUB turnover. In the morning, RUB continued appreciating, fuelled in particular by the further recovery in the crude oil market. Hence, by midday USDRUB had slipped to 60.40, which proved to be a turning point as crude pared earlier gains. By the end of the day, Brent declined 1.5% to settle at USD 56.3/bbl. Subsequently, USDRUB surged to 61.28, yet RUB still firmed ...

  • 12
    MAR15
    Oils – idea of tax experiment in oil industry receives preliminary approval

    Arkady Dvorkovich, the Deputy Prime Minister, has approved the idea of a tax on financial results for oil companies, Vedomosti reports. The list of 12 pilot projects that will participate in the experiment is to be selected from 35 submitted by oil companies, the newspaper reports. The possible criteria are small fields with low debits and no tax relief....

  • 11
    MAR15
    RUB: in the tail of oil’s sharp correction

    Yesterday, Brent remained under pressure: at the end of the day, it slipped 3.7% to USD 56.0/bbl, while in March so far crude is down 9.5%. In general, global risk sentiment has soured: for major equity markets, it was a defensive day reflecting a combination of factors ranging from the apparent stalemate in the Greek debt talks, fresh data highlighting persistent Chinese PPI deflation and pressure on US bank stocks ahead of today’s publication by the Fed of the second round of its stress tests....

  • 6
    MAR15
    Russian Oils – wholesale gasoline prices rose 8-15% over the last three weeks

    ... prices for gasoline on the St Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange rose 8-15% over the last three weeks. In the Central Region, ULR wholesale is up 14.6% and ULP has gained 8.3%. The tax manoeuvre has set the export duty for gasoline at 78% of oil export duty in 2015, from 90% in 2014. As a result, in 1Q15 the ULR netback has jumped 30% from 4Q14, we calculate. As we have noted before, were the internal market premium for oil products (namely, gasoline) to move from zero to negative territory,...

  • 6
    MAR15
    Oil and Gas - High-beta sector

    This morning, we have published Russian Oil and Gas - High-beta sector. Excerpts from the front page are given below. Oil stocks have risen 22% YTD in 2015, outperforming the RTS on its way up on the back of strengthening oil prices. This supports our conviction that oil has changed from being ...

  • 12
    FEB15
    RUB: oil down further

    ... currencies: NOK weakened 0.9% against USD, while NGN lost 2.2%; AUD and NZD were 0.5-0.7% down. Trading flows in USDRUB remained subdued, with total MICEX turnover just USD 3.2bn yesterday. In the morning, RUB opened under pressure on the back of the oil correction: at noon, USDRUB traded near 66.30 before moving up to 66.75 toward the evening. However, late in the session, RUB regained ground, apparently amid some optimism regarding the outcome of the Normandy Format group meeting in Minsk. RUB closed ...

  • 11
    FEB15
    RUB: crude oil correction weighs on risk sentiment

    Yesterday, trading flows remained subdued, with total USDRUB turnover in the MICEX of just USD 3.3bn. During the day, RUB traded heavy amid a sluggish performance from crude oil. Hence, Brent ended 1.5% down at USD 56.3/bbl, while nearest futures (CO1) slipped 3.3% to USD 56.4/bbl. In addition, the EM FX index declined 0.6-0.8% vs. USD with ZAR and TRY down around 0.8%, whilst BRL slipped 2.2%. USDRUB kicked off near 65.20 ...

  • 6
    FEB15
    Oils – adjustments to tax manoeuvre parameters might not be introduced before 2H15

    ... 2H15. No details have been provided yet. We have said on a number of occasions that the tax manoeuvre, introduced on 1 January 2015, might have unpredictable consequences, which means manual governmental interventions ahead. Lower global prices for oil and oil products, along with a significant depreciation in the rouble, mean that its effect could well differ significantly from what was initially planned. According to our calculations, the likely result is that profitability at many of Russia’s ...

  • 3
    FEB15
    RUB: it’s all about oil

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market surprised, as USDRUB spiked to 70.40 during the early trading hours, completely ignoring Friday’s rally in crude. To a certain extent, the morning’s downward correction in the oil market justified the sluggish performance of RUB. However, crude later bounced once again, with Brent closing up almost 6.0%, at USD 53.7/bbl. In light of this, USDRUB dropped to 68.32 at the end of the day, so RUB firmed 1.7% in the end. USDRUB total ...

  • 2
    FEB15
    RUB: unexpected rate cut; crude oil rally

    ... expectations and it was enough to re-balance the banking system through higher savings. On the other hand, the CBR projects a 3.2% GDP drop in 1H15. Combined, these considerations justified the rate cut. However, in the evening RUB turned a corner as the crude oil market bounced; in particular, Brent rallied 8.4% to close at USD 50.77/bbl, while the nearest futures (CO1) moved up to 52.99 (+7.9%) amid news of a continued and accelerating decline in US oil drilling. Hence, at the end of the day USDRUB closed ...

  • 28
    JAN15
    RUB: supported by crude oil

    Yesterday, RUB pared Monday’s post-S&P weakness: by the end of the day, it had firmed near 1.4% against USD (67.52). Partially, this happened because of EUR’s bounce, but the key driver was the crude oil market. Brent gained almost 3.0% to USD 46.5/bbl, while the nearest futures scratched the USD 50.0/bbl threshold. Meanwhile, the EM FX index closed nearly flat; ZAR slipped 1.1%. RUB outperformed other commodity-based currencies, like NOK (which gained ...

  • 13
    JAN15
    RUB: no relief in oil

    Yesterday, trading flows remained subdued in the Russia FX market, with total MICEX turnover of just USD 2.6bn, well below the normal daily figure. The performance of crude oil remains the key focus for RUB traders: Brent declined 5.8% to USD 46.50/bbl, which was hardly encouraging for commodity-based currencies. Hence, NOK weakened 1.2% and NGN lost 1.4% against USD. In general, the EM FX index closed 0.3% in the red. RUB ...

  • 12
    JAN15
    RUB: following crude oil

    Since the beginning of the year (we use 30 December as a reference point, i.e. the last trading day in the Moscow exchange) RUB has weakened 9.0% against US to 62.04 in a fairly illiquid market. Thus, trading flows over the last week were generally below USD 1.0bn due to the long New Year public holidays in Russia. Hence, the bulk of USDRUB trading was offshore. Meanwhile, Brent crude slipped about 10% YTD to the USD 49/bbl area, which was the main source of pressure on the Russian currency, we think...

  • 9
    DEC14
    RUB: can’t resist the oil

    Yesterday, RUB weakened 1.7% against USD, closing at 53.80 amid fairly low trading activity: total turnover in the MICEX was just USD 3.6bn. A triple-whammy of disappointing economic data, alongside fresh slippage in the oil price, was the main focus for markets yesterday. The latest trade data for China featured slower export growth and a 6.7% decline in imports. In Japan, real GDP growth for 3Q14 was revised down to a 1.9% annualised decline. Hence, EM FX index slipped ...

  • 3
    DEC14
    Oils – potential tax on financial results

    ... a new draft law to the Duma to replace MET with tax on financial results (TFR) by the end of the year, Vedomosti reports. The tax could be 60% of revenues decreased by operating costs. The authorities are considering a number of fields, including Lukoil, Gazprom Neft, Salym Petroleum and Surgutneftegaz, to serve as pilots to analyse the new rules over the course of three years. The Ministry of Finance has yet to examine the document. Given the lack of details, it is difficult to calculate the exact ...

  • 3
    DEC14
    RUB: underperforming crude oil

    ....50-11.00% do not look high at all. In addition, there was Brent’s near 2.2% decline, which also produced some pressure in NOK (-1.3%). Finally, the Ministry for the Economy announced revised economic forecasts for next year based on an assumption of oil at USD 80/bbl. Consequently, the Ministry sees the average USDRUB rate at 49.00 next year. We estimate RUB’s fair value at 42-43 against USD at these crude oil levels. Nevertheless, given that spot Urals is below USD 70/bbl, the message was negatively ...

  • 1
    DEC14
    Russian/CIS bonds: poisoned by weak oil

    On Friday, Russian/CIS bonds corrected down following the drop in crude and weakening FX. In high grade, long oil and gas names were under pressure: Rosneft’s issues fell near 1.0pp in price, SIBNEF 23 (YTM 7.30%) sagged 0.7pp in price, and the belly and the long end of the LUKOIL curve slipped 0.5-0.9pp in price, having widened in yield 13bp. Mid-term GAZPRU ...

  • 28
    NOV14
    RUB: oil lubricates slipway of decline

    ... against USD to close at 48.60. As we suggested, downward pressure on crude meant visible negative sentiment for RUB and other commodity-based currencies. In particular, NOK declined 1.20% as Brent fell 6.1% to USD 71.7/bbl. OPEC refrained from cutting oil production, leaving its output target at 30mmb/d. More disappointing was the absence of a commitment to adhere to the 30mmb/d ceiling (7 months out of 10 this year have been above 30mmb/d). Overall, we believe that the meeting puts the risks for Brent ...

  • 28
    NOV14
    OPEC refuses to cut – issues challenge to US tight oil

    OPEC maintained its 30mmb/d target and refused to cut production. GCC oil ministers stated that oversupply was not OPEC's problem; the market will ‘fix it’ and new high-cost non-OPEC production must now play a role in balancing the market. This effectively suggests OPEC is happy for prices to fall as low as needed to ...

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