VTB Analyst Consensus
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P&L indicators (in RUB, bn) |
3Q'11 |
9M'11 |
FY 2011 |
FY 2012 |
FY 2013 |
|
Interest income |
96,4 |
272,7 |
389,2 |
474,6 |
541,4 |
|
Interest expense |
-43,9 |
-125,0 |
-181,4 |
-224,9 |
-260,4 |
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Net interest income1 |
52,6 |
147,7 |
207,9 |
249,7 |
281,0 |
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Net fee and commission income |
9,2 |
27,1 |
38,4 |
46,7 |
56,4 |
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Net result from financial instruments2 |
-6,9 |
12,5 |
19,4 |
22,9 |
26,1 |
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Other income |
5,5 |
24,8 |
26,3 |
18,4 |
21,6 |
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Operating income before provisions |
60,4 |
212,1 |
292,0 |
337,7 |
385,1 |
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Provision charge for impairment |
-9,7 |
-27,4 |
-38,9 |
-53,0 |
-51,7 |
|
Operating income after provisions |
50,7 |
184,7 |
253,1 |
284,8 |
333,4 |
|
Staff and administrative costs |
-31,4 |
-98,8 |
-135,9 |
-159,5 |
-181,8 |
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Other non-operating income |
0,3 |
2,0 |
1,7 |
2,5 |
3,1 |
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Profit before taxation |
19,5 |
87,9 |
118,9 |
127,8 |
154,7 |
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Tax |
-3,9 |
-18,7 |
-24,2 |
-25,4 |
-30,7 |
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Net profit / (loss) attributable to shareholders of the parent: |
14,0 |
68,5 |
84,0 |
105,3 |
109,6 |
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Net profit |
15,6 |
69,2 |
94,7 |
102,4 |
124,0 |
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Net profit - MAX |
20,8 |
74,4 |
106,5 |
121,0 |
133,4 |
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Net profit - MIN |
9,6 |
63,2 |
76,3 |
83,1 |
100,1 |
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(1) Before provision for loan impairment |
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(2)Defined as financial assets at fair value through profit or loss, financial assets pledged under repurchase agreements and loaned financial assets, financial assets available-for-sale, investment securities held-to-maturity and Foreign exchange transactions | |||||
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Ratios (%)(excl. BoM) |
3Q'11 |
9M'11 |
FY 2011 |
FY 2012 |
FY 2013 |
|
ROE3 |
10,3% |
15,6% |
15,4% |
14,9% |
15,9% |
|
NIM4 |
4,8% |
4,6% |
4,9% |
5,1% |
5,0% |
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Provision charge/Average gross loan portfolio |
1,1% |
1,1% |
1,1% |
1,3% |
1,1% |
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NPL ratio (90+ days)5 |
7,3% |
7,3% |
7,2% |
7,0% |
6,2% |
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Allowance for loan impairment / NPLs |
107,8% |
106,9% |
109,2% |
112,6% |
125,9% |
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CIR 6 |
52,0% |
46,6% |
46,5% |
47,1% |
47,0% |
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Balance sheet indicators (in RUB, bn) |
30.09.2011 with BoM |
30.09.2011 VTB exl. BoM |
31.12.11 |
31.12.12 |
31.12.13 |
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Total gross loans |
4 050 |
3 494 |
3 799 |
4 276 |
4 982 |
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- Corporate loans, gross |
3 323 |
2 838 |
3 081 |
3 431 |
3 958 |
|
- Retail loans, gross |
727 |
656 |
718 |
845 |
1 024 |
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Allowance for loan impairment |
-314 |
-289 |
-295 |
-330 |
-365 |
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Total net loans |
3 736 |
3 205 |
3 504 |
3 946 |
4 616 |
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Total assets |
6 067 |
4 904 |
5 350 |
6 006 |
6 849 |
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Total deposits |
3 588 |
2 731 |
3 031 |
3 507 |
4 075 |
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- Corporate deposits |
2 481 |
1 843 |
2 017 |
2 291 |
2 627 |
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- Retail deposits |
1 107 |
888 |
1 015 |
1 215 |
1 448 |
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Total liabilities |
5 419 |
4 285 |
4 699 |
5 270 |
6 009 |
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* Notes: corporate deposits incl. state deposits | |||||
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(3) Calculated using net profit and average assets / equity (all including minority interest) | |||||
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(4) Net interest income divided by average interest earning assets, which include gross loans and advances to customers, due from other banks (gross) and debt securities | |||||
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(5) Non-performing loans (NPLs) represent impaired loans with repayments overdue by over 90 days. NPLs are calculated including the entire principal and interest payments. Ratio is calculated to total gross loans | |||||
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(6) Staff costs and administrative expenses divided by operating income before porovisions | |||||
The consensus for 9M’2011 and the years 2011-2013 based on analytical data from 16 investment banks (Gazprom Bank, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, ING, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Metropol, Morgan Stanly, BofA – Merrill Lynch, Renaissance Capital, TKB Capital, UniCredit Securities, Uralsib Capital, Alfa Bank, Sovlink) as of December 2, 2011.
The forecasts above have been provided to VTB by contributing investment analysts, and are, as such, publicly available information. The forecasts above are not, in any way, based on VTB proprietary forecasts. They are not endorsed by VTB nor does VTB assume any obligation to revise them to reflect circumstances arising after the date below.
Last updated on: Decemder 2, 2011
46 KB, 2 december 2011
