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Russia

  • 18
    APR14
    Russia Output & Demand – March

    Yesterday, Rosstat published its March statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment slid to 5.4%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%. Real retail sales growth almost unchanged at 4.0%, mainly due to the non-food component, which posted a gain of 6.9%, the strongest since January 2013, offsetting the slowdown in food items (+0.7% YoY vs. 1.8% YoY a month ago). Investment in fixed capital remained under water, but the pace of its decline slightly advanced to 4.3% YoY...

  • 21
    MAR14
    Russia Output & Demand - February; enjoy cheerful data while it lasts

    Rosstat has published its February statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment remained at 5.6%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. Real retail sales growth almost doubled, to 4.1%, mainly due to the non-food component, which posted a 13-month high annual gain of 6.4% (vs. 3.4% in January). Investment in fixed capital remained under water, but the pace of its decline halved to 3.5% YoY. Construction simultaneously softened its drop to 2.4% YoY, after a significant...

  • 17
    MAR14
    Russian Economy Monthly - March; chilling recession winds blow

    This morning, we published our regular Russian Economy Monthly. An extract from the front page is presented below. Uncertainty shock hits. There are many signs that the economy is now being hit by an uncertainty shock. Faced with heightened uncertainty, firms are delaying investment and ...

  • 6
    MAR14
    Russia Early Indicators - February

    This morning, we have published our regular Russia Early Indicators report, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for the last winter month of 2014. We provide key extracts from the report below. February’s early economic statistics (survey-based and hard data) ...

  • 17
    FEB14
    Macro week ahead – January data for Russia

    In Russia, the week starts with Rosstat releasing its monthly raft of economic statistics for January, including data on IP, internal demand and the labour market. On Wednesday, the regular weekly CPI is due out in Russia. Otherwise, the main focus is the ...

  • 13
    FEB14
    Russian Economy Monthly - February; Hot.Cool.Yours.

    Yesterday, we published our regular Russian Economy Monthly. An abstract from the front page is presented below. Hot. The rouble led the EM sell-off in January. With a 7% YTD weakness, the rouble looks technically oversold, and we expect a rebound toward USDRUB 33.5 through 1Q14. From ...

  • 6
    FEB14
    Russia: CPI – January; disinflation takes hold

    Last month, headline CPI decelerated 0.4pp to 6.1% YoY, in line with our and the consensus estimates. January’s inflation slowed on moderating food and tariffs inflation. Core inflation remained in check despite some price gains across non-regulated services. That said, early February disinflation continued and the recent weekly CPI report implies that headline inflation has slid to 6.0% YoY, thanks to deflation in eggs and slow gasoline inflation. Looking ahead, we expect disinflation to gather...

  • 28
    JAN14
    Russia Output & Demand - winter sun melts incomes

    Rosstat has published its December statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment increased to 5.6%, from 5.4% in November. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also ticked up to 5.6%. Real retail sales growth decelerated 0.7pp to 3.8% YoY on the food component. Investment in fixed capital growth managed to stay in the black with a 0.3% YoY increase, likely owing to the favourable base effect. Construction declined 3.0% YoY, after the modest 0.3% YoY drop a month ago. Real wage growth...

  • 10
    JAN14
    Russia Early Indicators - December; warm weather and chilling sentiment

    Yesterday, we published our regular Russia Early Indicators report, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for the last month of 2013. We provide key extracts from the report below. December’s early economic releases (both survey-based and hard data) ...

  • 18
    DEC13
    2014 Russian Equities Outlook - A study in investment

    Yesterday, we published 2014 Russian Equities Outlook - A study in investment. Excerpts from this report are given below. The ‘Russian discount’ does not stem from the quality of assets, instead it arises from investment governance, in our view. Investments have limited pass-through ...

  • 18
    DEC13
    Russia to invest USD 15bn in Ukrainian Eurobonds

    Yesterday in Moscow, the presidents of Russia and Ukraine signed several major deals and supplements to existing agreements. The major items of note are as follows. Russia is to invest USD 15bn into new Ukrainian Eurobonds over the course of the next few years, with the first issuance of up ...

  • 18
    DEC13
    Russia Economic Update - Cruising close to stall speed

    Yesterday, we published Russia Economic Update - Cruising close to stall speed, our Russian macroeconomic outlook. Excerpts from the front page are given below. Persistent structural and cyclical headwinds in the face of constrained policy room suggest that the Russian economy ...

  • 16
    DEC13
    Macro week ahead – November data for Russia

    In Russia, the week starts with Rosstat releasing its monthly raft of economic statistics for the last autumn month, including data on IP, internal demand and the labour market. On Wednesday, the regular weekly CPI is due out in Russia. Otherwise, the main ...

  • 6
    DEC13
    Russia Early Indicators - November

    November’s package of early economic releases (both survey-based and hard data) was not encouraging. Although the Services PMI pointed to an improvement in local demand, car sales continued to contract and labour market conditions seem to have soured further. On the supply side, the underlying trend also looks fairly soft, suggesting that the decline in IP is likely to have intensified in November. IP technical drivers became drags in November. The warmer weather this November is mainly to blame...

  • 8
    NOV13
    Russia Early Indicators

    The first bunch of economic releases for October (both survey-based and hard data) looks mixed, but shows tentative signs of improvement. On the one hand, PMIs and electricity consumption gained some traction, while gas output surged; on the other hand, contracting imports, car sales and rail cargo volumes put the chill on any excessive enthusiasm. Overall, this bodes well with our expectation of a growth uptick in the coming months, but only an ‘optical’ one on the back of the favourable base effect...

  • 1
    OCT13
    Andrey Kostin: «Probably the speed of our growth will not be so fast, but we’ll continue to be one of the most reliable banks in Russia»

    — I am joined by Andrey Kostin, the CEO and Chairman of VTB Bank. First I want to ask you about the investment climate and the concerns over what was seen in the US right now and the government shutdown. How much of a concern is that? — The Russian stock market is very much influenced by international investors. On one side, we have the slowdown of the Russian economic growth. On the other hand, we now have bad news coming from America about shutdown of the government, about debt ceiling ...

  • 10
    SEP13
    Russian Economy Monthly - September

    We have published our Russian Economy Monthly - September; a turning point. Extracts from the front page are presented below. Autumn might bring shift in growth structure. While investment (the key hurdle in the aftermath of the crisis) is likely to be spurred by faster ...

  • 13
    AUG13
    Russian Oils

    ... increase in gasoline prices, reports Vedomosti. The FAS is worried that gasoline prices have risen to RUB 38,000-39,000/t, or by 20%, since the beginning of the month. The situation is even more important prior to the planning maintenance season at Russian refineries. We believe that the current growth in motor fuel prices is temporary rather than driven by major structural issues. We also note that MinEnergo recommended that Russian oils stop gasoline export and increase its stocks recently. ...

  • 1
    AUG13
    RUSSIA – Weekly CPI: growth in headline CPI remained at 6.4% YoY as of 29 July

    Rosstat has released its weekly CPI report for 23-29 July. It suggests that during the first 29 days of July, consumer prices added 0.82% (vs. 1.23% in the respective period of 2012). The average daily growth in consumer prices declined to 0.009% on 23-29 July, from 0.005% on 16-22 July. The higher growth in heating prices (0.8% WoW vs. 3.2% WoW a week ago) was a key CPI growth driver over the last week, although the impact was much smaller vs. last week. Overall, we think that the acceleration in...

  • 10
    JUL13
    Russian oils decreased crude exports in 1H13

    Vedomosti reports that Russian oil companies decreased crude export to ‘far abroad’ countries 2% in 1H13, despite an increase in production for the period. At the same time, the companies started to send more crude to domestic refineries (throughput grew 2.4% YoY in 1H13),...

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