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  • 20
    Moody's, as expected, downgraded Russia from Baa1 to Baa2

    Late on Friday, Moody's downgraded Russia’s sovereign rating from Baa1 to Baa2 with a 'Negative' outlook. Among the key factors, the rating agency mentioned the subdued mid-term economy growth prospects amid elevated geopolitical risks (meaning the lack of access to international capital ...

  • 6
    Russia Early Indicators - September; same morass

    On Friday, we published our regular Russia Early Indicators, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for September. We provide key extracts from the report below. Autumn began with muted colours. Although the ‘cash-for-clunkers’ programme and the better ...

  • 29
    Macro week ahead – EU to review sanctions on Russia

    This week, the key news in Russia is the submission to the State Duma of the draft federal budget for 2015-17. The expenditures breakdown of GDP in 2Q14 and the weekly CPI report for the final week of September are also to be published in Russia. Elsewhere, in CEMEEA we await the ...

  • 20
    Russia Output & Demand – July; local demand grinds to a halt

    Yesterday, Rosstat released its economic statistics for July. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9% (vs. 4.9% in June and 5.0% BBG); and SA UR – at 5.1% for the second consecutive month; Fixed capital investments: -2.0% YoY (vs. +0.5% and -1.0%); Retail sales: +1.1 % YoY (vs. +0.7% and +0.9%); Construction: -4.6% YoY (vs. +1.2% the previous month); New houses: +38.5% YoY (vs. +35.3% the previous month); Real wages: +1.8% YoY (vs. +2.1% (revised up from 1.7%) and +1.7%); Agriculture: +8.5%...

  • 4
    Russian Oils – sanctions are only mildly negative for Russia’s oil production outlook

    According to Vedomosti, the sanctions imposed by the US and EU might negatively affect oil production in Russia. On 29 July, the EU issued a statement that the export of oil equipment to Russian would now require advance approval. Similar sanctions were imposed by the US. There are a number of onshore technologies that Russian oil companies use widely ...

  • 4
    Macro week ahead – inflation in Russia moderates, early indicators point downwards

    This week is relatively light on market-moving data releases across our CEEMEA universe, with the CPI report from Russia taking centre stage. Rosstat is to release its July inflation numbers early this week, with the headline number expected at 7.5% YoY (its first decline since the start of the year). The slower indexation of regulated tariffs this year was the ...

  • 16
    European Council – to consider additional sanctions for Russia today

    Today, the European Council is to consider the matter of introducing additional economic sanctions against Russia in light of the ongoing (and recently escalating) military standoff in eastern Ukraine. Yesterday, ITAR-TASS reported that nine countries (including Germany, France and Italy) were against such action, which would require consensus among EU members ...

  • 15
    Oils – potential tax manoeuvre might decrease the number of refineries in Russia

    ... the Ministry of Energy recently reported that the potential tax manoeuvre might mean that four of Rosneft’s refineries (Komsomolsky, Ryazansky, Saratovsky and Achinsky) as well as Surgutneftegas’ Kirishi become loss-making . As detailed in our Russian Oils: Tax manoeuvre — Snatch, Turkish and Tommy, of 30 June, in refining, the growth in crude netback would mean more expensive feedstock for domestic refineries. However, assuming a netback pricing mechanism, the profitability of upgraded refineries ...

  • 4
    Russia Early Indicators – June

    Yesterday, we published our regular Russia Early Indicators report, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for the first summer month of 2014. We provide key extracts from the report below. At the beginning of summer, the sun seemed to be shining on the ...

  • 25
    Russian Equities Strategy - Through a glass darkly

    Yesterday, we published Russian Equities Strategy - Through a glass darkly. Excerpts from this report are given below. The start of 2014 was a rollercoaster ride for the Russian stock market, as the EM-led slide was followed by a geopolitical shock from Ukraine. As the risks ...

  • 8
    Russia Early Indicators – April

    The start of 2Q14 saw more of the same trends observed in the previous quarters – weakening domestic and export demand, deteriorating business sentiment and elevated inflationary pressure. Thus, Russia is slipping into technical recession, but on the positive side this process seems slow and gradual rather than massive and sharp. Also of note, although FX pass-through is yet to push core inflation higher in 2Q14, cost inflation has already started ...

  • 5
    Russian Economy Monthly - May

    Spring got underway with rising geopolitical tensions propagating into an uncertainty shock and the first damage assessment reveals that the sectors of the Russian economy have each been unhappy in their own way. Households brought forward discretionary spending in anticipation of a spike in import prices and found refuge for their savings in cash FX and real estate. Corporates slashed capex outlays and ...

  • 28
    Rating downgrade – S&P lowers Russia to BBB- – leaves negative outlook

    On Friday, S&P cut its foreign currency rating on Russia to BBB- from BBB due to rising risks to the country’s growth prospects on large capital outflows in 1Q14 and the narrower possibility for external financing. It kept the rating outlook as negative, citing risks to Russia's creditworthiness from ...

  • 18
    Russia Output & Demand – March

    Yesterday, Rosstat published its March statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment slid to 5.4%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%. Real retail sales growth almost unchanged at 4.0%, mainly due to the non-food component, which posted a gain of 6.9%, the strongest since January 2013, offsetting the slowdown in food items (+0.7% YoY vs. 1.8% YoY a month ago). Investment in fixed capital remained under water, but the pace of its decline slightly advanced to 4.3% YoY...

  • 21
    Russia Output & Demand - February; enjoy cheerful data while it lasts

    Rosstat has published its February statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment remained at 5.6%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. Real retail sales growth almost doubled, to 4.1%, mainly due to the non-food component, which posted a 13-month high annual gain of 6.4% (vs. 3.4% in January). Investment in fixed capital remained under water, but the pace of its decline halved to 3.5% YoY. Construction simultaneously softened its drop to 2.4% YoY, after a significant...

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