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  • 28
    Russian oils: Government suggests increasing excise taxes for Euro-4 and Euro-5 gasoline and diesel

    ... excise tax rate on oil products was the only economic incentive for Russian oils to invest in improving fuel quality. We estimate the total effect from the increase in excises on EBITDA 2013 to reach some USD 160mn for whole industry, with Lukoil and Gazprom Neft to be hardest hit. For Lukoil, we expect the total effect on EBITDA 2013 to reach some USD 70mn, while for Gazprom Neft it is USD 30mn. Overall, we see this initiative as questionable as, on the one hand the government is giving oil companies ...

  • 5
    European gas prices and the EU

    ... prices than was the case last winter. That may or may not have a bearing on the way the EU handles its relationships with major gas suppliers to EU member states. The European Commission (EC) has just opened formal proceedings to investigate whether Gazprom might be in breach of EU anti-trust legislation for reasons that include whether it ‘may have imposed unfair prices on its customers by linking the price of gas to oil prices.’ In our view, this continues to demonstrate the strained relationship ...

  • 16
    MET on gas

    ... Ministry of Finance intends to increase Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) payments for gas companies by an additional RUB 200bn (USD 6.8bn) in 2013-14. Deputy Minister of Finance Sergey Shatalov said that incremental payments would be collected not only from Gazprom but also from independent producers. No final decision has not been made yet, with discussions ongoing. Today’s Vedomosti also mentions that the Ministry for the Economy now expects gas export parity in Russia to be reached in 2021. There are ...

  • 13
    Russian Oil & Gas companies to get full relief on export duty for new offshore projects

    ... be appreciated. He added that 70-75% of orders for equipment and services should be placed with Russian companies. Kommersant also speculates that the government might allow Russian oils to send offshore gas to export, or sell it at export prices to Gazprom. According to Putin, the estimated additional investment might reach USD 500bn for the next 30 years. Currently, only Gazprom and Rosneft have the right to explore offshore. Yesterday, the chief executives of the largest independent oil and gas ...

  • 12
    ECB to the rescue

    ... the liquid space were posted by Energies and Golds. Among individual stocks, almost all key Energy names outperformed with the most significant gains achieved by Surgutneftegaz (+2.6%, 0.8x 1M average daily trading volume), NOVATEK (+2.6%, 1.1x) and Gazprom Neft (+2.2%, 0.3x). Tatneft (- 1.4%, 1.2x) and Transneft pref. (-0.4x) were the only negative performers among Energy blue chips. In Golds, we note the advances of Petropavlovsk (+3.2%, 0.7x) which occurred after the substantial decline on Tuesday ...

  • 11
    Russian oil companies reduce exports to the Czech Republic

    ... prolonged deliveries to Czech customers. The paper also speculates that exports through the Druzhba pipeline are less attractive than ordinary export alternatives, and with BTS-2 now having been launched, Rosneft and LUKOIL will prefer it to Druzhba. Gazprom Neft might partially offset the decline by increasing its exports to the Czech Republic in 2Q12. According to the Kommersant, alternative ways of supplying crude oil would be at USD 4-5/bbl more expensive.  LUKOIL’s and Rosneft’s delivery ...

  • 10
    Taking a breather after discouraging US employment

    ... reshaping the alcohol retail market, if it happens, would be hurtful for Food Retailers as well. Otherwise, VimpelCom (– 1.8%, 0.3x) and CTC Media (–2%, 0.4x) were also among the US traded laggards. On the domestic trading front, in the Energy space, Gazprom Neft (+2.6%, 0.1x) saw a better bid after the company approved dividends with an implied yield of 4.8%; in Steels and Bulks, KTK (2.6%, 3.4x) saw profit-taking after a streak of outperformance. Elsewhere, Automakers (–1.7% on average, 0.7x) ...

  • 9
    Weak US March payrolls dent sentiment

    ... which has been advertised for some time might finally be institutionalised. As for details of the price action on Friday, the retreat was quite broad-based, led primarily by Energy and Banks, with SurgutNG (-3.0%, 0.3x of 1M average daily volume) and Gazprom (-2.5%, 0.3x) staying at the front line. MinFin and Gazprom are expected to reach agreement on the gas MET rate this week, which could negatively impact the natgas monopoly’s EBITDA (but we believe that a higher tax makes the government a more ...

  • 6
    Risk aversion provokes attack on Swiss franc

    ... the negative sentiment. As for Russian stocks yesterday, in terms of sectors Metals and Mining names were generally in greater demand, while Energies and Financials were a mixed bag. Among individual liquid stocks, LUKOIL (+1.5%, 1.0x 1M avg volume), Gazprom Neft (+1.4%, 0.1x) and Rosneft (+1.0%, 0.6x) looked particularly strong in the Energy sector, while Polymetal Intl (3.8%, 1.2x), Severstal (+2.0%, 0.9x) and Evraz Group (+1.8%, 1.0x) outperformed in the M&M sector. Key Financials also ended the ...

  • 22
    More evidence of thinning oil demand

    ... while taking an even more cautious stance on Uralkali (as we commented yesterday, the decent price it got from China for 2Q12 does not alter the low capacity utilisation outlook for 2012 amidst soft fertilizer demand). Otherwise, in this morning’s Gazprom: MET Discussions, our energy team explains that Gazprom’s investment case is not (and has not been for the last several years) about underlying economics or the level of EBITDA (at 2.5x current EV/EBITDA, it is unambiguously cheap on that metric),...

  • 21
    Oil price in the spotlight

    ... market decline, the major Russian equity benchmarks have slid 4% since last Thursday: the RTS index closed below the 1,700 level (1,693) and a thin 1% above the previous local bottom of 1,677. Blue chips were sold off more intensively, with gas names Gazprom (-3.0%, 1.3x 1M ADTV) and NOVATEK (-6.1%, 1.3x) underperforming and Sberbank (-1.5%, 1.0x) enjoying a better bid. Among other liquid names there were noticeable price movements registered in Norilsk Nickel (-4.2%, 1.3x), Uralkali (+2.1%, 2.0x ...

  • 20
    Russian equities presage oil prices moving lower?

    ... already adequately reflected in the current prices). Yesterday’s 2.5% selloff across Russia’s main Energy names might be telling just this story, even as other sectors provided a much better return on balance. Thus, among blue chips index heavyweight Gazprom (-2.9%, 1.3x) put the main drag on the gauges, while the most liquid Sberbank (-0.4%, 0.9x) managed partly to smoothen the decline on the back of the relatively good performance from the Financial sector overall (both in Russia and globally). ...

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