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CBR

  • 1
    JUL15
    Money market: relief as the CBR offers a generous limit for one-week repo

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap closed at 11.94% (-34bp), while the weighted-average rate for the whole session printed at 12.27% (-14bp). The CBR provided RUB 1.45tn in the one-week repo tender at an average rate of 12.11%. Even though the total amount of bids was near RUB 2.0tn, we think that the offering size fitted the current situation well in the interbank market. Thus, the CBR cut the ...

  • 17
    JUN15
    FX swap normalises; CBR launches fine-tuning FX swap auctions

    Yesterday’s session was calm for the money market. The overnight FX swap moved back inside the policy rates band, trading at 12.03% at the close; the weighted-average rate printed 12.16%. Nevertheless, banks borrowed RUB 44bn in the CBR’s FX swap window, securing an additional RUB 147bn in the overnight repo operations. The regulator slightly increased the limit on the one-week repo auction yesterday, offering RUB 1.7tn (+RUB 120bn) to the market. The funds were allocated in full ...

  • 15
    JUN15
    Money market: overnight converges to the CBR’s benchmark

    On Thursday, the overnight FX swap closed at 12.72 (-41bp) and the weighted-average rate printed 12.56%. Hence, banks did not tap the CBR’s FX swap facility for the second day in a row, though they borrowed RUB 47bn in fixed-rate repo operations. The interbank market saw relief with the beginning of the new averaging period, while the regulators continued pumping liquidity into the ...

  • 15
    JUN15
    Macro week ahead – CBR’s BoD meeting

    The CBR’s Board of Directors gathers to set the key rate today, with the decision to be published at 13.30, Moscow time. Rosstat publishes hard data for May, starting with IP on Tuesday and then the rest of the package (including real wages, real retail ...

  • 15
    JUN15
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview – CBR choses the easing channel mix

    When the CBR’s Board of Directors gathers on 15 June to set rates, it will find itself still in the middle of the easing cycle. With the real interest rate in excess of 5.0% and the headline CPI firmly on the disinflation track, there seem to be no arguments ...

  • 10
    JUN15
    CBR adheres to conservative repo limits

    Yesterday, the money market was crowded, as the CBR decided to keep conservative limits on the one-week repo auction: FX swap closed at 13.50% (+26bp), while the average rate climbed to 13.31%. The regulator offered RUB 1.58tn, which effectively was refinancing of maturing auction repo funds. Banks ...

  • 8
    JUN15
    Money market: CBR increases the liquidity supply

    On Friday, the situation on the money market remained tense, with overnight rates stuck near the upper end of the policy rate band. Subsequently, the CBR conducted a one-day repo auction for RUB 200bn. Total demand was RUB 609bn and the average rate was 13.02%. In light of this, the bid for standing facilities eased, with only RUB 54bn provided in one-day standing repo and RUB 51bn in overnight FX ...

  • 3
    JUN15
    Money market: CBR plays hard ball with one-week repo limit

    Yesterday, the CBR offered only RUB 1.29tn for the one-week repo auction: banks secured the whole limit at an average of 12.8% amid RUB 1.9tn of demand. The regulator expects RUB 420bn of liquidity inflow from the budget this week, and while that could be the case we ...

  • 27
    MAY15
    CBR sets tight limit for one-week repo

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap closed at 13.5%, while the weighted-average rate for the whole session printed at 13.24% (+56bp). The situation in the money market was tense, as the volume of banks’ current accounts with the CBR declined RUB 372bn to RUB 1.1tn, i.e. below the comfortable level. In addition, the CBR surprised by setting a relatively tight offering limit for the one-week repo of just RUB 1.78tn. Total demand was near RUB 2.2tn (banks basically wanted to roll ...

  • 15
    MAY15
    RUB: alarmed by CBR’s FX interventions

    The CBR’s decision on FX interventions spooked the market yesterday, with USDRUB hiking to 50.60 as soon as the news hit the wires. Within a short time, USDRUB returned to 50.00, consolidating at this level amid a fragile oil recovery and the gradual increase ...

  • 30
    APR15
    RUB: all eyes on the CBR

    ... 1Q15 as ‘transitory’ (real GDP was up only 0.2% annualised), while inflation is likely to go back up to 2%. The 8 May nonfarm payroll report is the likely decider for a June rate increase, though the consensus is still with September.   As the CBR’s meeting approaches, trading activity on the Russian FX market continued to decline, with the MICEX reporting USD 3.2bn of turnover yesterday. RUB opened flat against USD, and only the continuing uptick in oil prices managed to break its flattish ...

  • 23
    APR15
    Money market: FX swap nudged down below the CBR’s offer level

    Yesterday, liquidity inflows from the settlement of one-week repo and Treasury auctions helped to cool demand for the CBR’s overnight facilities. Hence, banks borrowed only RUB 40bn from the regulator in fixed-rate repo operations, leaving the FX swap facility untapped. The overnight FX swap rate closed at 14.51% (-18bp), while the weighted-average rate moved down ...

  • 21
    APR15
    Money market: CBR holds ad hoc repo auction

    The CBR conducted a two-day repo auction for RUB 230bn. Banks secured the whole size amid RUB 371bn of demand at an average rate of 14.37%. In light of this, banks reduced the volume of overnight repo to RUB 14bn. However, fresh liquidity from the CBR was ...

  • 17
    APR15
    CBR: foreign debt redemption schedule

    Yesterday, the CBR published an update on the debt redemption schedule for 2015. Overall, the regulator estimates that over 4Q14, short-term external debt (i.e. due in next 12 months) of banks declined by USD 4.1bn to USD 40.4bn; for corporates it decreased to USD 77....

  • 16
    APR15
    Money market: FX swap rate holds near CBR offer

    The overnight FX swap yesterday returned to the CBR’s offer level, hitting 15.09% at the close. The weighted-average rate gained 13bp to 14.88%. Hence, the regulator provided RUB 147bn via FX swaps and RUB 55bn via the overnight repo. VEB reported that it had allocated RUB 75.6bn of one-week deposits ...

  • 13
    APR15
    RUB: correction; another rate hike on CBR FX repo

    On Friday, trading activity increased, with the MICEX reporting USD 7.1bn in turnover. We think the retail selling flow in the morning was the main catalyst of USDRUB’s sharp dip to 50.40. However later, risk sentiment reversed: in particular, the CBR's decision to hike rates on FX repo triggered some profit taking on long positions in RUB ahead of the weekend. At the end of the day, RUB lost near 3.0% against USD, closing at 53.58. Meanwhile, Brent rose 2.7% to USD 57.3/bbl. The average EM FX ...

  • 27
    MAR15
    CBR conducts fine-tuning repo auction

    Liquidity visibly tightened yesterday amid continued tax payments. Hence, banks’ current accounts declined RUB 161bn to RUB 1.25tn on Thursday morning. Meanwhile, CBR statistics show that on 25 March, VAT and MET erased near RUB 510bn of banking liquidity. Nevertheless, we estimate that the consolidated budget is still running a moderate deficit so far in March. In the wake of this, the CBR announced an ad hoc ...

  • 25
    MAR15
    CBR increases one-week repo limit once again

    Yesterday, the CBR conducted a one-week repo auction, increasing the limit RUB 120bn to RUB 1.57tn, which we think will support banking liquidity during the tax week. The funds were taken in full, amid RUB 1.7tn of demand; and the average rate printed at 14.37%. At ...

  • 20
    MAR15
    CBR conducts ad hoc repo auction

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap was down 46bp to 14.57%, while the weighted-average rate remained flat at 14.81%. During the session, the overnight FX swap touched 15.0%, so banks borrowed RUB 15bn from the regulator in the FX swap window. The CBR provided RUB 170bn at an ad hoc overnight repo auction. Total demand printed at RUB 422bn and the average rate was set at 14.50%. This helped to ease tensions in the money market. Subsequently, banks reduced the volume of fixed rate repo to RUB 25bn ...

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