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CBR

  • 14
    MAR14
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview - Sitting this one out

    Today, the CBR is due to take its first monetary policy decision after the emergency 150bp rate hike in early March. We see no grounds for policy rate changes at the current stage. On the one hand, uncertainty related to geopolitical tensions remains too high ...

  • 11
    MAR14
    Macro week ahead – CBR monetary policy meeting

    ... Ministry of Financae is to release budget execution numbers for last month. In most of our CEEMEA universe (Russia, Turkey, Hungary and the Czech Republic), statistics on external trade activity in the first month of 2014 are to come out. In addition, the CBR is to hold its monetary policy meeting on 14 March. The major event this week is the CBR rate decision on Friday. Geopolitical tensions have topped the monetary policy agenda recently, as associated pressure on local financial markets triggered ...

  • 4
    MAR14
    Rates – CBR announces 150bp hike at emergency meeting

    Yesterday morning, the CBR lifted rates 150bp (with the key rate from 5.50% to 7.00%) at an emergency meeting. The decision follows the recent escalation of tensions in Ukraine and associated pressure on the local currency. The regulator noted that this measure was aimed at ...

  • 21
    FEB14
    The time has probably come for the CBR to announce additional repo auction

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap closed at 6.50%, while the weighted-average rate for the whole day settled at 6.30%. Apparently, banks need some liquidity injection amid the CBR’s increased FX interventions and the smaller amount of funds coming from the budget as the tax period kicked off. As a result, banks secured RUB 40bn in the FX swap window with the CBR yesterday, while banks also borrowed RUB 19bn under the fixed-rate ...

  • 19
    FEB14
    Separately, MinFin talks about introducing a limit on the Treasury’s account in the CBR

    In other news, Moiseev said yesterday that MinFin and the Treasury were discussing a mechanism for imposing a limit on the Treasury’s account in the CBR. This could potentially be done during 1Q14. Consequently, all funds above the limit would be allocated to banks. Effectively, this would limit the budget’s sterilisation during the year, which is again rather positive for banking liquidity and ...

  • 17
    FEB14
    Rate markets: view on CBR's monetary decision

    On Friday, the CBR was in focus as it held its first monetary policy meeting this year. The regulator left all rates unchanged and revised the wording of the press release. In a later press conference, CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina said that there was no ground to ...

  • 11
    FEB14
    Rates: CBR conducted MTRO auction, XCCY rates moved upwards

    Yesterday, the CBR offered RUB 200bn via the MTRO auction at the cut-off rate of 5.85%. Total demand at the auction was RUB 289bn with the rate range from 5.76% to 6.45%. Effective net injections are to reach ca. RUB 100bn because banks have repaid around RUB 100bn ...

  • 5
    FEB14
    Ministry of Finance will not purchase FX when the CBR is on offer

    ... on MICEX, a bit below average for the last few days. In addition to EMFX moves (that generally consolidated in recent days), RUB benefited from the Ministry of Finance’s announcement that no FX purchases will be made in the open market, while the CBR is offering FX every day. In our view, at these levels, the regulators are concerned about RUB stability and not creating further downside expectations. To recap, the Ministry of Finance announced that the transfer to the Reserve Fund would be RUB ...

  • 14
    JAN14
    CBR – eliminates daily target interventions

    Yesterday, the CBR announced that the amount of daily target interventions had been cut to zero, from USD 60mn before. Since September 2013, the regulator has been actively altering FX policy in order to reduce its influence on the rouble. Hence, the recent step was ...

  • 25
    DEC13
    Rates: the CBR rolled only RUB 1.5trln into the next year

    Yesterday, the CBR conducted two-week repo auction in RUB 1.523trln at 5.52% with a maturity in 2014. This implies that the remaining repo indebtedness will be rolled via overnight repo (i.e. around RUB 1.5trln as well) and this will allow to limit the impact of the ...

  • 12
    DEC13
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview - Friday the 13th, but don't be scared

    On Friday, the CBR is due to take its last monetary policy decision this year. Our View: There is little intrigue as to the outcome of the meeting itself (no change in rates expected), but it will nevertheless be interesting to watch for any signs as to the degree ...

  • 11
    DEC13
    Interventions threshold – CBR lowers it once again

    The CBR has cut the volume of cumulative non-target interventions required to shift the band 5 kopeks from USD 400mn to USD 350mn. The width of the operational band was left unchanged at 7 roubles (32.80-39.80). The move looks logical and expected as it ...

  • 11
    NOV13
    CBR Monetary Policy Decision

    On Friday, the CBR decided to keep its key rate at 5.5%, as was widely expected. Our View: The tone of the accompanying statement was almost unchanged; the shift to forward-looking language was of the most interest. The lack of additional steps to ease liquidity conditions ...

  • 8
    NOV13
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview

    Today, the CBR is due to take its next monetary policy decision. Although underlying growth momentum does not seem to have improved in the recent past and the negative output gap is likely to have widened further, elevated food inflation is set to keep the CBR ...

  • 22
    OCT13
    CBR – halves daily target interventions

    Yesterday, the CBR announced that the amount of daily target interventions had been cut to USD 60mn, from USD 120mn before. The decision follows closely in the footsteps of a series of changes in FX policy that the regulator has introduced since pressure on RUB subsided ...

  • 18
    OCT13
    CBR Monetary Policy Report – 3Q13

    Yesterday, the CBR released its flagship Quarterly Monetary Policy Report for 3Q13. The key messages are as follows. Economic slowdown. The regulator retains its relatively hawkish rhetoric that the economic slowdown is, to a large extent, a structural phenomenon. ...

  • 15
    OCT13
    CBR Monetary Policy Decision

    Yesterday, the CBR left its key rate at 5.5%, as was widely expected. On a separate note, the RUB 500bn three-month MTRO auction today garnered market demand of RUB 563bn and cleared at a 5.76% cut-off rate. The tone of the accompanying statement has become less ...

  • 9
    OCT13
    CBR intervention mechanism

    ... increased starting this week to RUB 3.1 and one of the one rouble-wide intervention sub-bands was dropped as a result. At the same time, the amount of target interventions was kept unchanged at USD 120mn per day. The move follows in the footsteps of the CBR's September decision to lower the amount of accumulated interventions that trigger operational band shifts and overall fits well into the regulators' commitment to move to a floating RUB and inflation targeting. We believe the decision was designed ...

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