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CBR

  • 12
    DEC14
    Russia: CBR increases rates 100bp on inflation grounds

    The CBR, after raising rates 100bp yesterday, stressed its readiness to tighten policy further if inflation risks and RUB devaluation expectations increase. We had expected a heftier rate hike (150bp) and did not rule out a temporary widening of the rates ...

  • 12
    DEC14
    Local sovereign debt: stronger on CBR decision

    Yesterday, the OFZ market rallied, as the CBR announced a 100bp rate hike, while the market priced in something between 150bp and 200bp, we estimated. Hence, hot on the heels of the CBR’s announcement, the OFZ curve shifted down near 50bp yield wise. However, the gains were partially pared ...

  • 11
    DEC14
    CBR – Monetary policy preview – waiting for a big bazooka

    The CBR is due to hold a monetary policy meeting today, with the pressure to deliver bold policy action having increased significantly over the last two weeks, following the brisk decline in oil prices and consequent pressure on the currency. The CBR is unlikely ...

  • 11
    DEC14
    CBR policy meeting – expectations high than ever

    The pressure to deliver bold policy action has increased significantly over the last two weeks, following the brisk decline in oil prices and consequent pressure on the currency. We believe the CBR is unlikely to put off raising interest rates substantially in an attempt to stem FX volatility. We expect another 150bp hike in the key policy rate and do not rule out the regulator lifting the cap of the rates corridor further, guiding for a more ...

  • 11
    DEC14
    RUB: all eyes on the CBR now

    ... to USD 63.75/bbl. Subsequently, NOK closed 0.5% weaker. However, the EM FX index ended the day 0.4% in the red, with ZAR down 0.7%, while MXN and BRL slipped 0.8-0.9%. Thus, at the end of the day RUB weakened 0.8% against USD (or 40% YTD). Today, the CBR’s policy meeting is of high importance: the market is waiting for some bold policy response to the FX volatility.

  • 10
    DEC14
    Banks tap CBR’s FX swap window

    ... session, it traded at fairly low levels (around 8.5%). Hence, the weighted-average rate on the day printed at 8.96%, i.e. 10bp lower than Monday. However, late in the evening the overnight FX swap spiked to 10.53%, so banks secured RUB 33bn from the CBR at 10.50%. Simultaneously, the volume of overnight repo declined to RUB 34bn (-RUB 100bn) yesterday. We think some technical factors resulted in an overnight FX swap spike. Hence, yesterday was the last day of the November-December averaging period,...

  • 4
    DEC14
    RUB: CBR in the market

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market opened in the red with USDRUB quickly spiking to 54.85-54.90. However, around noon the CBR reportedly intervened for a second time in the week, pushing USDRUB as low as 52.50-52.80. We understand that the CBR has a trailing offer selling FX in portions at the market’s price. Hence, the regulator does not defend any particular level in ...

  • 1
    DEC14
    Money market: overnight FX swap falls to CBR bid

    On Friday, the overnight FX swap closed 3.5pp on the day at 7.08%. Eventually, it touched 7.0%, the level of CBR's bid in FX swap, but so far CBR data have not shown banks engaged in FX swap operations with the regulator. This morning, the volume of banks' deposits with the CBR reached RUB 189bn (up RUB 81bn). At the same time, on Friday, banks borrowed a record ...

  • 6
    NOV14
    FX policy - CBR dirty floats RUB, fine tunes FX refinancing facility

    Yesterday, the CBR effectively shifted to a dirty float FX regime and made the terms of FX repo more attractive. Changes to the intervention mechanism The CBR commits to sell (purchase) USD 350mn per day once the value of the bi-currency basket reaches or goes beyond ...

  • 6
    NOV14
    RUB: negative reaction to CBR’s policy changes

    Yesterday, RUB weakened near 2.6% against USD (44.87) and surrendered around 2.4% vs. BASKET (48.90). Overall, during the day USDRUB traded as high as 45.00. This was in reaction to the news of the CBR’s changes to the FX policy. Meanwhile, the EM FX index lost near 0.6-0.7% vs. USD with ZAR and TRY trading down near 1.0%. Overall, we think the pressure on RUB is now driven first and foremost by domestic clients’ flow, especially, household ...

  • 5
    NOV14
    Macro week ahead – CBR's reaction to re-intensifying pressures on RUB

    Re-intensifying pressures on RUB require additional policy action on top of the rate hike last Friday to stabilise the situation on the FX market, but it remains to be seen whether the CBR is prepared to act quickly. Apart from the CBR's potential reaction, we await monetary policy decisions in Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as a fresh CPI report for October from Rosstat. Pressure on RUB intensified again late last Friday ...

  • 5
    NOV14
    CBR raised rates 150bp last Friday

    The CBR raised policy rates 150bp last Friday, but ruled to leave the intervention mechanism and FX refinancing facilities unchanged. The CBR’s decision last Friday was a bold move to calm the FX market and address concerns over rising inflation expectations....

  • 30
    OCT14
    Local sovereign debt: weaker ahead of CBR meeting

    ... terms, with RFLB 28 closing up 8bp at a yield of 10.05%. Meanwhile, on the belly of the curve, the yields moved up 10-15bp, with the bulk of bonds traded at yields of 10.20-10.25%. Hence, the curve has become visibly inverted now in anticipation of CBR tightening.

  • 27
    OCT14
    Money market: all eyes on the CBR this week

    ... liquidity to rise, given the sizeable volume of Friday’s FX interventions and MET payment to the budget. Hence, it is no surprise that the regulator decided to conduct a RUB 330bn two-day repo auction today. Meanwhile, the key event this week is the CBR’s MPC on Friday. The CBR is facing an unenviable task this week. It is terms of trade shock, rather than the short-term spike in inflation that is of greater concern, and the shape of adjustment to this shock and, consequently, the CBR’s policy ...

  • 13
    OCT14
    Macro week ahead – eyes on RUB and CBR comments

    .... Otherwise, GUS is to present September CPI reports It is the behaviour of the rouble, rather than the publication of statistical data, that is likely to remain in focus this week. In this regards, there are two critical questions: when will the CBR draw the line and why are households still so tolerant towards persistent devaluation? These questions are obviously interconnected, but we shall try to address them separately. First, the current conditions on the local FX market very much resemble ...

  • 3
    OCT14
    Money market: overnight FX swap falls to CBR’s bid again

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap rate closed at 5.69%, i.e. hitting the CBR’s bid. Banks secured USD 473mn from the regulator. Meanwhile, NDF rates did not chase that move. In contrast, 1M NDF closed 2bp higher at 7.45% and 3M NDF widened to 7.78% (+6bp). Longer dated NDFs picked up 10-15bp, with 12M closing at 8.21%. XCCY ...

  • 26
    SEP14
    Money market: CBR reveals terms for the October 312-P auction

    ... morning banks had near RUB 1.36tn on correspondent accounts in total, while we think they need a maximum of RUB 1.0tn in order to meet the regulation for minimum reserve requirements and run clients’ day-to-day operations smoothly. Meanwhile, the CBR has announced the terms for the next 312-P refinancing auction, which is to take place on 13 October (settlement T+2). The regulator is going to offer RUB 600bn for three months. We highlight that about RUB 564bn of outstanding 312-P debt matures ...

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