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  • 22
    Government discusses Strategy for Developing the Russian Far East and Baikal region

    ... Expanding capacity on the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway would facilitate tighter economic integration, both within the region and between it and central Russia. It would also enhance Russia’s role as a transport link between Asia and Europe. However, Russia probably cannot afford RUB 10tn. First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov suggested treating the document as a long list of desired projects, and then refining it by the end-2013 to differentiate between the mandatory ...

  • 1
    VTB organises meeting between Russian and Vietnamese business circles

    ... participants, the importance of the items discussed and the real agreements signed highlight the tremendous interest of the Russian and Vietnamese sides in the meeting. The success of this event showed the growing prestige of VTB Group in the South East Asian market. » Vasily Titov, First Deputy President and Chairman of VTB Bank Management Board

  • 8
    LNG spot prices continue to increase

    North East Asian spot LNG cargo prices for delivery four-eight weeks ahead continue to increase, adding another USc 40/mmbtu to hit USD 19.40/mmbtu (USD 685/mcm), easily the highest in the last two years. NE Asian spot LNG prices are now around USD 4/mmbtu (USD ...

  • 4
    Turkey: Inflows bonanza; how long will it last?

    In 2012, Turkey experienced export growth combined with a stagnation in internal demand, which helped the current account deficit to decline to 6.4% of GDP, from 10.0% in 2011. The monetary policy easing delivered in mid-2012 reignited bank lending and internal demand growth, putting an end to the rebalancing story. We expect the current account deficit, on the T12M basis, to reverse in February 2013. In our view, Turkey is entering a risk zone: in the next six months, the current account deficit...

  • 14
    Weather turns cold, ‘spot’ LNG price increasing

    Since the beginning of November, which broadly marks the real start of the heating season in the northern hemisphere, the weather has been generally colder than average in Europe and Asia, based on data for selected cities. For Europe and Moscow, the difference has been fairly marginal but for Asia, the winter has been around 24% colder than normal so far this year when measured in terms of the number of Heating Degree Days. The cold ...

  • 4
    Net speculative positions rise

    Net speculative positions were up on both sides of the Atlantic. The CFTC had reported US non-commercial net longs in futures and options (F&O) in WTI sharply up (+62.5%) WoW, but from a very low base, to close at 8,955 positions in the week to 30 November. While for the week to 27 November, non-commercial net longs in F&O on the ICE in Brent were up 2,455 positions (+2.5%) to 101,022 positions. Both Brent and WTI were flat WoW to the respective reporting dates, Brent at USD 109.87/bbl and WTI at...

  • 3
    Key event is CPI and lending statistics for August

    ... and Services PMI on Wednesday, to give a first estimate of how the economy fared in August. APEC final declaration is likely to support new avenues of development for Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as broaden economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. 

  • 20
    Spot LNG prices falling

    Since peaking at USD 18.4/mmbtu (USD 650/kcm) at the end of May, spot LNG prices to South East Asia have dropped 24% to USD 14/mmbtu (USD 494/kcm). That fall has been broadly mirrored by European spot LNG prices, which have now dropped to USD 9.7/mmbtu (USD 343/kcm), although the differential has narrowed by around USD 1.7/mmbtu (USD 60/kcm). European ...

  • 5
    The rally stalls

    ... advances. Russian equities followed suit, seeing a moderate trading session with little change to headline indices. However, volumes were reasonably strong – at USD 1.8bn (0.8 x 1M ADTV) – despite the US market being closed. As we go to print, Asia is trading in negative territory, declining 0.2% on average. Oil (dated Brent) is edging marginally higher after the overnight retreat below USD 100/bbl. EUR is at 1.253; Gold is a hair below USD 1,617/oz.

  • 3
    Global markets: slow start to the week

    ... expected to repeat the findings of the previous two soft jobs reports…and thus increase the prospect of QE3…the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for 31 July. Meanwhile, watch the ECB meeting this Thursday; we expect a 25bp rate cut. As we go to print, Asia is trading in the black on expectations that the lower than consensus macro data could spur more monetary easing from global regulators in the near future. Oil (dated Brent) extended gains, reaching USD 98/bbl. EUR is at 1.25; Gold is at USD 1,602/oz....

  • 13
    US emasculates new Iran sanctions

    On 11 June, the US State Department granted ‘significant reduction’ waivers to India, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Taiwan. That means the US has now effectively exempted all of the major importers of Iranian crude, with the exception of China, from the new sanctions. As we do not expect the US to apply its new sanctions powers effectively on China, the result of this latest decision is to emasculate the potential direct impact of the new US sanctions, which...

  • 22
    Japanese LNG demand tightening European gas supply

    ... is also robust. Consequently, Europe is seeing its LNG supply fall as it is not price competitive. Spot LNG into Europe is currently assessed by WGI at USD 436/kcm (USD 12.35/mmbtu), a 31% discount to the USD 632/kcm (USD 17.91/mmbtu) it is bid at in Asia. European LNG imports weakened in the second half of last year and are down 29% YoY for the year to February, equivalent to 5bcm. Overall gas demand in Europe dropped sharply in 2011, falling 9% for OECD Europe to 509bcm, largely due to the warmer ...

  • 10
    Taking a breather after discouraging US employment

    ... published this morning). All in all, the improving 2012F profitability fuelled by strong investments in marketing and the supply chain is already priced in by the market and with a 3% upside to our Target Price this is a still Hold. As we go to print, the Asian stock indices are a mixed bag, but mostly in the red; Nikkei is flat, Sensex +0.2%, but Kospi -0.3% and Shanghai Composite -1.3% following the below expectations March imports stats (+5.3% YoY vs. +9% consensus). Oil (dated Brent) at USD 122/bbl ...

  • 9
    Weak US March payrolls dent sentiment

    ... however, amply reflects the magnitude of the downgrade. Moreover, even if Kolvinskoye production is reduced all the way to zero, the intrinsic value of Alliance Oil is well above the current share price. Hence, Buy is reiterated. As we go to print, the Asian stock indices are uniformly down (from 0.2% for China to 1.3% for Korea) following the US Friday data and pick-up in China March CPI inflation to 3.6%. The S&P500 futures is also some 1% in the red having abandoned the 1,400 mark (it is at 1,375 ...

  • 6
    Risk aversion provokes attack on Swiss franc

    ... (-1.2%, 1.0x) also ended the day on the bleak side. In the less liquid space, the news about’s (+2.7%, 2.4x) strong 2H11 and FY11 IFRS results provided the company with an impressive daily return on elevated volumes. As we go to print, the Asian stock indices are some 0.5% lower on average (China is hanging on to positive territory after a strong 1.5% move against the market yesterday). S&P500 was little changed at -0.1% ahead of the long weekend. EUR is consolidating at 1.3069, a 0.9% ...

  • 5
    Yuri Soloviev: Bulgaria Is Perfect for Starting Operations in the Balkans

    ... the present moment? Why didn't you come to Bulgaria earlier or later? –  Generally speaking, VTB has been developing over the past decade by either purchasing, or growing organically in a number of countries and different regions. We are present in Asia in Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, and India; we are present in the Middle East where we chose Dubai as a hub; we are present in the United States where we opened our offices last year; we are obviously present in Europe in Vienna, Frankfurt,...

  • 24
    Brent exceeds 2008 peak

    ... from the mean over the last year. However, while the USD price of Brent remains USD 23/bbl below its all time nominal peak from July 2008, it is now above those peak levels in RUB and GBP terms and within a whisker of the peak in EUR terms. Only in Asia are local currency prices considerably below the 2008 peak, notably for Japan and China, and less so for India. While that might be a boon for an oil exporter such as Russia, it is likely to prove a drag on global growth the more it is sustained....

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