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ruble

  • 9
    JUL12
    Ruble REER continued to weaken in June, declining 4.3% MoM

    The ruble real effective exchange rate weakened 4.3% MoM in June, intensifying from a drop of 1.7% MoM (CBR upgraded May data from -2.0% MoM), bringing the YTD change to a negative value of -0.4% (from +4.0% in January-May). The ruble fell against the dollar,...

  • 30
    JAN15
    RUB: down again

    Yesterday, RUB recorded yet another weak session. At the end of the day, it had lost near 1.8% against USD (68.97); during the day, USDRUB had touched the 69.40 mark. Pressure on RUB mounted despite the crude oil price bounce: Brent ended 1.3% higher at USD 46.85/bbl. Meanwhile, NOK and NGN closed a touch firmer, and the EM FX index declined 0.4-0.5%, driven by TRY (-1.3%) and BRL (-1.1%). We noted widening of the negative basis between the overnight FX swap and RUONIA recently, which could be a...

  • 29
    JAN15
    RUB: marginally weaker

    Yesterday, trading flows on the Russian FX market remained subdued: total USDRUB turnover was little above USD 3.0bn. However, these figures (i.e. average daily turnover around USD 3.0bn) have become the new normal for the FX market. At the end of the day, RUB slipped 0.4% against USD and closed at 67.76. During the session, RUB found some support in better oil prices – Brent had gained near 1.0% at one point – but toward the end, crude had fallen into the red. In particular, the Brent spot declined...

  • 28
    JAN15
    RUB: supported by crude oil

    Yesterday, RUB pared Monday’s post-S&P weakness: by the end of the day, it had firmed near 1.4% against USD (67.52). Partially, this happened because of EUR’s bounce, but the key driver was the crude oil market. Brent gained almost 3.0% to USD 46.5/bbl, while the nearest futures scratched the USD 50.0/bbl threshold. Meanwhile, the EM FX index closed nearly flat; ZAR slipped 1.1%. RUB outperformed other commodity-based currencies, like NOK (which gained near 0.9%) and NGN, which actually slipped 0...

  • 27
    JAN15
    RUB: S&P downgrade weighs on risk sentiment

    RUB ended yesterday’s session on a softer footing. In the morning, the FX market opened under pressure right away on the back of slippage in crude prices (Urals ended 0.4% down) and geopolitical tensions. Late in the evening, news arrived that S&P had downgraded Russia one notch from BBB- to BB+ with a Negative Outlook. In light of this, USDRUB surged to close at 68.50: i.e. for the full session, RUB weakened near 6.4% vs. USD. Meanwhile, the EM FX index closed barely changed, but with mixed performances:...

  • 26
    JAN15
    RUB: tax week

    On Friday, RUB closed the week on a stronger footing; however, trading flows remained fairly low. At the end of the week, RUB firmed 0.7% against USD to close at 63.71. The spot Brent crude price declined 1.4% at the end of last week to USD 45.9/bbl, yet negative sentiment was partially offset by the rebound in crude futures (CO1 was up 0.6%). In light of this, RUB outperformed commodity-based and EM currencies. In particular, NOK closed 1.4% in red on Friday, whilst NGN retreated 0.2%. The EM FX...

  • 26
    JAN15
    December stats to reveal first damage assessment from RUB devaluation

    The macro agenda this week is busy: Rosstat is to publish its monthly report for December, the CBR and the NBH are to take decisions on rates, while S&P might announce its verdict on Russia's sovereign rating. The December monthly report from Rosstat is the heavyweight on the data front this week. IP is likely to have remained relatively stable in slightly negative territory, as suggested by flat dynamics in energy consumption and rail cargo handling for December: import substitution, defence (re-armament)...

  • 23
    JAN15
    RUB: gaining ground

    Yesterday, RUB enjoyed a solid session, yet trading flows remained low, as total USDRUB turnover in the MICEX did not exceed USD 3.0bn. At the end of the day, RUB firmed 1.6% against USD (64.18) and 4.2% vs. EUR (72.84). Meanwhile, the EM FX index closed 0.7% in the black with ZAR, TRY, MXN and BRL up near 0.9-1.0%. RUB well outperformed other commodity-based currencies, as NOK and AUD fell 0.8-0.9%, while NGN ended 0.5% weaker against USD. Crude oil’s recovery provided the necessary positive background...

  • 22
    JAN15
    RUB: marking time

    Yesterday’s session saw still subdued trading activity, with total turnover in USDRUB reported at USD 2.9bn. In the morning, RUB kicked off on a softer footing, as crude oil prices slipped. Later Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s tougher rhetoric weighed on the performance of the Russian exchange market as well. However, with the commodities markets rebounding (Brent closed 1.6% in the black at USD 46.2/bbl) RUB got a second wind. During the day, USDRUB traded as high as 65.90, yet closed at...

  • 21
    JAN15
    RUB: crude recovery stalls

    Yesterday, a weak performance on the oil markets shaped Russian FX sentiment. Brent declined 3.5% to USD 45.5/bbl as the IMF joined its counterparts at the World Bank by downgrading its global GDP forecasts. The IMF now expects global GDP to expand 3.5% this year and then 3.7% in 2016. In light of this, RUB weakened 0.6% to 65.2, against USD, which was in line with the performance of NOK (which also fell 0.6%) and far better than NGN (down 1.4%). Meanwhile, EM FX was a mixed bag, with the total index...

  • 20
    JAN15
    RUB: ahead of peers

    Trading activity in the Russian exchange market was understandably subdued yesterday (as the US was closed), with total USDRUB turnover at USD 2.0bn. RUB traded on a stronger footing; during the session, USDRUB touched 64.20. Towards the end of the day, USDRUB moved higher as the recovery in Brent crude oil stalled, while EM FX fell under pressure. Thus, the EM FX index closed 0.4% in the red vs. USD, with ZAR trading down 0.8%, while MXN surrendered 0.4%; NOK slipped 0.9% and NGN tumbled 0.8%. At...

  • 19
    JAN15
    RUB: calm session

    On Friday, the Russian exchange market saw little volatility amid a subdued trading flow, as the MICEX recorded just USD 2.2bn in USDRUB turnover. During the session, USDRUB traded in the range of 64.80-65.50 anchored to the 65.10-65.15 level for most of the time. At the end of the day, RUB weakened near 0.2% against USD having closed at 65.31. At the same time, crude oil recovered with the Brent spot settling almost 3.0% higher at USD 47.7/bbl at the end, while the nearest futures bounced more than...

  • 16
    JAN15
    RUB: in a whirl

    Yesterday’s session was quite volatile and eventful, yet trading flows in the MICEX still look subdued: total turnover in USDRUB was only USD 3.9bn. Crude oil saw nice swings, with Brent spiking above USD 50/bbl briefly in the middle of the day, only to close 2.7% in the red at USD 46.3/bbl. In addition, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly abandoned the EURCHF floor at 1.2000. The SNB has intervened at great cost to protect that floor with the result that the central bank’s balance sheet is...

  • 15
    JAN15
    RUB: rebound

    Trading flows remained relatively low yesterday, with MICEX recording a total USDRUB turnover of only USD 3.2bn. Nevertheless, there was plenty of trading action: in the morning, RUB fell deeply into the red, trailing sluggish oil market performance, and by the middle of the day it had touched 66.50. However, later, crude jumped sharply, with spot Brent closing 2.8% higher, at USD 47.6/bbl, while the nearest futures gained 4.5%, settling at USD 48.7/bbl. Subsequently, RUB rallied to close 0.9% stronger...

  • 14
    JAN15
    RUB: trading activity remains subdued

    USDRUB turnover on the MICEX was just USD 3.9bn yesterday. Compared to Monday, we noted lower selling interest from exporters. In light of this, RUB lost near 3.2% against USD and closed at 65.21. During the session, Brent oil traded 1.5-2.0% lower, scratching 45.00, which was the key pressuring factor for the Russian FX market. However, by the end of the day, Brent had recovered to close only 0.3% in red, at USD 46.3/bbl. Meanwhile, NOK slipped just 0.2%, while NGN closed 1.2% down. Other commodity-based...

  • 13
    JAN15
    RUB: no relief in oil

    Yesterday, trading flows remained subdued in the Russia FX market, with total MICEX turnover of just USD 2.6bn, well below the normal daily figure. The performance of crude oil remains the key focus for RUB traders: Brent declined 5.8% to USD 46.50/bbl, which was hardly encouraging for commodity-based currencies. Hence, NOK weakened 1.2% and NGN lost 1.4% against USD. In general, the EM FX index closed 0.3% in the red. RUB declined 1.7% vs. USD to 63.14. We highlight that the CBR conducted two FX...

  • 12
    JAN15
    RUB: following crude oil

    Since the beginning of the year (we use 30 December as a reference point, i.e. the last trading day in the Moscow exchange) RUB has weakened 9.0% against US to 62.04 in a fairly illiquid market. Thus, trading flows over the last week were generally below USD 1.0bn due to the long New Year public holidays in Russia. Hence, the bulk of USDRUB trading was offshore. Meanwhile, Brent crude slipped about 10% YTD to the USD 49/bbl area, which was the main source of pressure on the Russian currency, we think...

  • 24
    DEC14
    RUB: narrowing the gap with EM FX

    Yesterday, RUB had quite an active session in terms of the price action, while total turnover in the MICEX was USD 4.2bn. In the morning, RUB kicked off on a stronger footing, with USDRUB touching lows of 53.30. However, it later picked up to the 54.50-55.00 range and briefly spiked to 56.00. Nevertheless, in the end RUB settled at 54.71 against USD, i.e. 1.7% in the black. The bounce of Brent crude oil prices helped RUB’s gains as the former closed up 1.0% at USD 59.67/bbl, while futures surged...

  • 23
    DEC14
    RUB: approaching a fair level

    Yesterday, RUB recorded yet another decent session. By the end of the day, it had gained 7.1% against USD (55.65), and USDRUB even briefly traded below 55.0. However, trading flow was rather thin, with total turnover in the MICEX of just USD 4.0bn. In our view, this highlights that neither export selling nor retail purchasing flows were strong yesterday. Interestingly, RUB firmed despite the slump in crude oil: in the morning, Brent traded almost 2.0% in the black, but ended down 3.6% at USD 59.05/bbl...

  • 22
    DEC14
    Macro week ahead – RUB and banking system liquidity in the spotlight

    This week is fairly light on the data front. Markets will likely focus on RUB's performance and watch for signs of easing/rising stress in the local financial system. RUB stabilised somewhat in the latter part of last week amid a rising supply of hard currency from exporters. Export sales might continue to prop up RUB during the tax period, but the persistent dollarisation of household savings after the recent bout of FX volatility still presents a major risk. The fact that households prefer to buy...

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