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ruble

  • 9
    JUL12
    Ruble REER continued to weaken in June, declining 4.3% MoM

    The ruble real effective exchange rate weakened 4.3% MoM in June, intensifying from a drop of 1.7% MoM (CBR upgraded May data from -2.0% MoM), bringing the YTD change to a negative value of -0.4% (from +4.0% in January-May). The ruble fell against the dollar,...

  • 2
    MAR15
    RUB: in the red as taxes end

    On Friday, RUB closed 0.9% lower against USD at 61.75. We think that, with the end of the tax period, the hard currency offering from export declined, which slightly changed the balance in the Russian FX market. Meanwhile, Brent surged 3.6% to USD 61.8/bbl, which we think could constrain the potential further correction of RUB. However, NOK and NGN traded in the red as well (0.1% and 0.5%, respectively) ignoring the stronger commodity market. The EM FX index closed 0.1-0.2% in the black, with BRL...

  • 27
    FEB15
    RUB: outperforming peers

    Yesterday’s session on the Russian exchange market was quite active, with a total USDRUB turnover in MICEX of USD 4.6bn. RUB kicked off on a stronger footing and around noon USDRUB broke the 60.0 level, where a decent bid emerged. From that point until the end of the day, USDRUB climbed higher and higher. In the end, USDRUB closed at 61.18, so RUB firmed 0.4% against USD. Meanwhile, the EM FX index ended 0.4-0.5% in the red, with ZAR and TRY down 0.6-0.7%. Brent crude oil closed 2.6% down at USD...

  • 26
    FEB15
    RUB: hand in hand with crude

    Yesterday’s session saw fairly average trading flows, with total USDRUB turnover in the MICEX of USD 3.7bn. Brent crude regained its positions, closing 5.1% in the black at USD 61.3/bbl, so it looks like the USD 55-60/bbl range is a strong support level. In light of this, RUB gained 2.4% and closed at 61.42 against USD, so the post-Moody’s losses were completely pared. The EM FX index nudged down 0.2-0.4%, with TRY and BRL down 1.0% and 1.4%, respectively. Commodity-backed currencies traded on a...

  • 25
    FEB15
    RUB: paring weakness

    Yesterday, RUB erased some of Monday’s losses, even though crude oil closed slightly in red at USD 58.30/bbl. However, during the session Brent briefly traded above USD 60/bbl, which encouraged risk sentiment in the Russian exchange market. We think the key support came from export selling flows ahead of today’s taxes (MET and VAT combined), while some pick-up in the money market rates was a helping hand for the FX spot as well. In the end, RUB firmed 1.3% against USD to close at 62.90. Meanwhile...

  • 24
    FEB15
    RUB: Week starts weakly

    Yesterday, RUB slipped 2.6% against USD to 63.7 amid low liquidity, as the local FX market closed for a public holiday. In our view, the main pressure on RUB came from a crude price correction: Brent closed down 2.0% at USD 58.6/bbl. NOK and NGN also slipped (1.2% and 0.5%, respectively). Further, the EM FX index weakened 0.4-0.6% against USD, with TRY down 0.9%, and BRL and MXN slipping 0.3-0.4%. Given that last week RUB outperformed its global peers, underperforming them now is not surprising,...

  • 20
    FEB15
    RUB: crude oil market correction weighs on RUB

    Trading activity on the FX market was USD 4.3bn (MICEX), slightly above the average daily figures for the week. At the end of the day, the RUB had weakened 0.6% against USD to 61.9 following the downward move in the crude oil market. During the day, Brent traded 2.0% in the red, briefly dipping below USD 54.5/bbl. However, US crude inventories data showed the increase was lower than the market had feared, which fuelled some relief in the commodity market. Hence, at the end of the day, spot Brent...

  • 19
    FEB15
    RUB: ahead of the EM FX index

    Yesterday’s session ended positively in the Russian exchange market, even though Brent crude declined 4.4% to USD 58.50/bbl. At the end of the day, RUB firmed 2.8% against USD to close at 61.56. In the first half of the day, RUB traded near 62.50, but later enjoyed a sharp appreciation. We think exporters could have increased the hard currency selling offer ahead of the taxes next week, because in February export was mostly on the side lines in the FX market. In addition, the Ministry of Finance...

  • 18
    FEB15
    RUB: further in the black

    Yesterday’s session brought few surprises. Crude oil continued to recover with Brent firming another 2.3% to USD 61.2/bbl. In light of this, RUB and other commodity-linked currencies enjoyed decent bids. In particular, NOK gained 0.7% against USD, while AUD and NZD advanced near 0.6%; however, NGN lagged having closed 0.8% in the red vs. USD. Meanwhile, the EM FX index ended 0.1% stronger against USD. At the end of the day, USDRUB settled at 62.5, i.e. RUB appreciated 1.1%. However, the session was...

  • 17
    FEB15
    RUB: outperforming peers

    Yesterday, trading flows in the Russian FX market remained decent, despite the public holiday in the US: the MICEX reported total turnover in USDRUB of USD 4.1bn. RUB traded stronger as crude oil prices continued to pick up. Brent gained 0.8% and closed at USD 59.9/bbl, yet during the day it traded well above the USD 60/bbl mark. In light of this, RUB firmed 0.4% towards the end of the day to close at 63.20 against USD. However, during the session USDRUB traded as low as 62.20. Nevertheless, RUB...

  • 16
    FEB15
    RUB: regaining ground

    Friday's session in the Russian exchange market was spectacular. In the morning, trading patterns were not much different to the preceding days: USDRUB attempted unsuccessfully to break the 64.75 resistance level, backed by strengthening crude oil. However, in the evening, the bid faded away, and so RUB started to rapidly appreciate against USD. Trading flows increased with MICEX recording a total turnover of USD 4.2bn in USDRUB. In the end, RUB firmed 3.1% vs. USD to 63.44, whilst Brent gained 4...

  • 13
    FEB15
    RUB: minor correction

    Trading flows surged visibly yesterday, with USDRUB turnover in the MICEX at USD 5.0bn. However, the session was rather choppy as market participants were primarily focused on politics and the headlines from Minsk. In the morning, USDRUB spiked from 65.00 to 66.86, but slipped to 64.75 in just a matter of hours. Later, pressure on RUB increased once again and it weakened to 65.85 vs. USD, yet closed little changed to Wednesday at 65.19. However, RUB surrendered 0.7% against EUR (74.39). Brent bounced...

  • 12
    FEB15
    RUB: oil down further

    Yesterday, traders on the Russian FX market remained focused on two main topics: crude prices and geopolitics amid the start of the Minsk talks on Ukraine. Brent traded heavily yesterday, and had slipped 3.7% to USD 54.2/bbl by the end of the session. This weighed on all commodity-related currencies: NOK weakened 0.9% against USD, while NGN lost 2.2%; AUD and NZD were 0.5-0.7% down. Trading flows in USDRUB remained subdued, with total MICEX turnover just USD 3.2bn yesterday. In the morning, RUB opened...

  • 11
    FEB15
    RUB: crude oil correction weighs on risk sentiment

    Yesterday, trading flows remained subdued, with total USDRUB turnover in the MICEX of just USD 3.3bn. During the day, RUB traded heavy amid a sluggish performance from crude oil. Hence, Brent ended 1.5% down at USD 56.3/bbl, while nearest futures (CO1) slipped 3.3% to USD 56.4/bbl. In addition, the EM FX index declined 0.6-0.8% vs. USD with ZAR and TRY down around 0.8%, whilst BRL slipped 2.2%. USDRUB kicked off near 65.20 and picked up to 66.40 in the evening, later it moved up to 66.90 as crude’s...

  • 10
    FEB15
    RUB: positive start of the week

    RUB started yesterday’s trading session on a stronger footing as crude continued its recovery. During the day, Brent traded as high as USD 58.50/bbl, before eventually closing 0.6% lower at USD 57.2/bbl. In the morning, USDRUB moved down to 65.25, driven by export-selling flow. Later it moved up to 66.25, eventually closing at 65.79, meaning that RUB had firmed 1.6% vs. USD on the day. Elsewhere, NOK advanced 0.2%, while NGN ended 1.1% down. The EM FX index ended flat, with ZAR weakening 0.7%. RUB...

  • 9
    FEB15
    RUB: marginally lower

    On Friday, trading activity in the Russian exchange market was relatively slow with USDRUB total turnover of just USD 3.7bn. At the end of the day, RUB weakened near 0.4% against USD to close at 66.86. However, RUB firmed 1.3% vs. EUR (75.64) as EURUSD dipped to 1.1316 amid a strong US jobs report, which also pushed US Treasury yields higher (1.93%, up 12bp on the week). The markets focused on a possible rate hike in June, especially as average earnings growth ticked up to 2.2%. Gold fell by over...

  • 6
    FEB15
    RUB: two-way swings help improve market liquidity

    Yesterday the Russian FX market session was active, with a total turnover of USD 4.6bn registered by MICEX. In the morning, RUB opened under pressure following the oil market correction; however, crude later bounced, with Brent closing up 5.4% at USD 56.0/bbl. As commodity markets recovered, RUB regained ground: by the middle of the session, USDRUB had moved to 66.25 from 68.70 at noon. Later, headlines concerning the Ukraine situation shaped USDRUB price action, which moved in the range of 66.10...

  • 5
    FEB15
    RUB: pullback

    Yesterday’s session in the Russian exchange market ended in the red, as crude oil switched into the correction mode, which is hardly surprising after a few consecutive days of gains. In the end, Brent slipped 4.4% to USDS 53.2/bbl, whilst the nearest futures (CO1) declined 6.5% to USD 54.2/bbl. In light of this, NOK and NGN weakened 1.1%. In addition, the whole EM FX space was under pressure, with TRY down 2.7% against USD, MXN and BRL dipping 1.6-1.7% and ZAR retreating 0.9%. Against this background...

  • 4
    FEB15
    RUB: extending gains

    Yesterday, RUB continued trading on a stronger footing amid the further advance of crude oil prices: Brent ended 3.5% in the black at USD 55.6/bbl. At the end of the day, RUB firmed to 65.23 against USD (+4.8%). Meanwhile, NOK gained 1.8%, while other commodity-based currencies slightly lagged the momentum: AUD slipped 0.1% as the Bank of Australia cut rates, whilst NZD advanced 0.8%; NGN ended 0.3% in the red. The EM FX index closed 0.8-1.0% up: ZAR was 1.0% stronger and TRY rose 1.3%, while MXN...

  • 3
    FEB15
    RUB: it’s all about oil

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market surprised, as USDRUB spiked to 70.40 during the early trading hours, completely ignoring Friday’s rally in crude. To a certain extent, the morning’s downward correction in the oil market justified the sluggish performance of RUB. However, crude later bounced once again, with Brent closing up almost 6.0%, at USD 53.7/bbl. In light of this, USDRUB dropped to 68.32 at the end of the day, so RUB firmed 1.7% in the end. USDRUB total trading flow was near USD 5.2bn, rather...

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