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ruble

  • 9
    JUL12
    Ruble REER continued to weaken in June, declining 4.3% MoM

    The ruble real effective exchange rate weakened 4.3% MoM in June, intensifying from a drop of 1.7% MoM (CBR upgraded May data from -2.0% MoM), bringing the YTD change to a negative value of -0.4% (from +4.0% in January-May). The ruble fell against the dollar,...

  • 27
    APR15
    RUB: holding ground

    On Friday, the Russian FX market opened strongly, with USDRUB nudging down to 50.20 amid solid export offer. However, the export flow dried up in the afternoon, and RUB began to surrender positions, as market participants were taking profits before the weekend. In the evening, RUB gained a stronger footing from the uptick in the oil prices, thus slipping just 0.1% to 50.87, finally. Brent climbed to USD 63.6/bbl (+1.6%), refreshing a new high of the year. Today VAT and MET are due, so RUB might enjoy...

  • 24
    APR15
    RUB: solid support

    Export selling flows, coupled with the continuing upturn in oil prices, left RUB no choice but to strengthen yesterday. In early trade, RUB rose 1.4% to 51.50 amid a decent export offer, then lingered there for a while. In the evening, the baton of market support passed from exporters to oil, so RUB advanced further, ending the day at 50.81 (+2.7%). In the meantime, Brent climbed 3.4% to USD 62.6/bbl, flirting with USD 63.0/bbl during the session. Trading activity on the Russian FX market was more...

  • 23
    APR15
    RUB: regaining ground

    Yesterday, export sales continued to provide support to the Russian FX market, though trading activity moderated visibly, with the MICEX reporting only USD 3.5bn of turnover. RUB gained a firmer footing right in the morning, moving steadily in one direction for the whole session. In the evening, the bounce in Brent gave a fresh impulse to RUB, so it closed at 52.19 against USD, thus firming 2.9%. In turn, Brent recovered 2.1%, settling at USD 60.5/bbl. The peak of tax payments falls next Monday and...

  • 22
    APR15
    RUB: export supports the market

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market saw choppy trading, balancing between export selling flows and increasing buying flow. In the morning, USDRUB opened with a gap, hiking to 54.10 from 53.40. However, at this level export offers emerged, sending USDRUB back to the opening levels by around midday. In the second half of the session, the export support started to fade, so pressure on RUB resumed, with the slide in crude prices doing its bit to weaken market sentiment. Hence, RUB declined 0.6% against...

  • 21
    APR15
    RUB: behind the EM FX universe

    RUB reacted negatively to the news about the CBR’s FX repo rate hike. As soon as the headlines hit the wires, USDRUB spiked from 51.5 to 52.9. At the end of the day, RUB closed at 53.39 against USD (-2.7% to Friday). Meanwhile, the highest print of USDRUB was 53.80, but in the evening bounce of crude oil helped to take some pressure off RUB. Hence, Brent traded almost 2.0% in the red during the day, just to close flat at USD 61.2/bbl. Overall, we think that the rise in the CBR’s FX repo was a catalyst...

  • 20
    APR15
    RUB: correction

    On Friday, risk appetite in the Russian FX market took a step back and RUB retreated from its recent highs. Trading activity was decent with MICEX reporting USD 6.1bn in USDRUB turnover. RUB opened on a softer footing in the morning, consolidating near 50.80 by mid-day. The correction in oil prices added to the weaker sentiment. At the end of the day, RUB slipped 4.2% to 51.96. Brent ended the session at USD 61.21/bbl, losing 1.5% over the day. The key tax dates this month fall next week, but corporates...

  • 17
    APR15
    RUB: flat in spite of higher oil

    Yesterday, trading activity on the FX market increased, with MICEX reporting USD 4.5bn of USDRUB turnover. During Moscow trading hours, RUB was a bit volatile and paid little attention to the continuing recovery in crude prices. However, late in the evening RUB gained a stronger footing, moving sharply to 49.65 from the 50.10 seen mid-day. Hence, RUB closed at 49.81 (-0.2%), and Brent jumped 3.3% to USD 62.2/bbl. The EM market closed in the black, with the EM FX index up 0.5% against USD. ZAR outperformed...

  • 16
    APR15
    RUB: encouraged by oil

    Yesterday, RUB enjoyed another strong session. At the opening, USDRUB dipped 1.0% to 50.50, consolidating at this level until the evening. However, rising oil prices spurred further RUB strengthening, pulling USDRUB below 50.00. As a result, RUB gained 2.5% on the day, closing at 49.73, its highest since December. Meanwhile, Brent climbed 4.5% to USD 60.2/bbl. Despite the start of the tax period, trading activity remained muted, with the MICEX reporting turnover of USD 3.8bn. Commodity based-currencies...

  • 15
    APR15
    RUB: more of the same

    The Russian FX market is still overwhelmed by retail flows that remain a strong sell. Hence, yesterday RUB opened 1.0% stronger, additionally supported by crude’s recovery. Later, we noted some bids emerging near the 51.3-51.5 USDRUB area. However, in the evening, the EM FX space gained as US data disappointed slightly, opening the way to 51.0 for USDRUB. We believe that technical factors also drove the move: it is likely that market participants had closed intraday USDRUB longs they opened in the...

  • 14
    APR15
    RUB: ahead of EM peers

    Yesterday, RUB closed at 52.28 against USD, gaining back 2.5%. Trading flows visibly moderated, as MICEX turnover printed at USD 4.2bn. However, the opening was strong again, with USDRUB plunging to 52.10, as banks were likely covering retail USDRUB selling flows accumulated over the weekend. The rest of the session, RUB held its ground, disregarding sluggish crude dynamics. Thus, Brent sagged 1.1% to USD 56.7/bbl. In particular, BRL and TRY fell 1.5-1.6%, ZAR slipped 1.2%, while the EM FX index...

  • 13
    APR15
    RUB: correction; another rate hike on CBR FX repo

    On Friday, trading activity increased, with the MICEX reporting USD 7.1bn in turnover. We think the retail selling flow in the morning was the main catalyst of USDRUB’s sharp dip to 50.40. However later, risk sentiment reversed: in particular, the CBR's decision to hike rates on FX repo triggered some profit taking on long positions in RUB ahead of the weekend. At the end of the day, RUB lost near 3.0% against USD, closing at 53.58. Meanwhile, Brent rose 2.7% to USD 57.3/bbl. The average EM FX index...

  • 10
    APR15
    RUB: to the fresh highs

    Yesterday was a busy trading day on the Russian FX market, with the MICEX reporting decent turnover of USD 5.5bn. RUB started out in already familiar manner, shinning up to 52.40 from 53.40 during first trading hours. The rest of the session, RUB gradually moved toward the 52 level, scratching it by the middle of the day. Brent bounced 1.0% to USD 55.82/bbl, doing its bit for general market sentiment; RUB eventually advanced 3.25% against USD on the day, closing at 51.97. Meantime, EM currencies...

  • 9
    APR15
    RUB: solo

    Yesterday, Brent moved down 4.4% to USD 55.3/bbl, but this had no impact on the performance of the Russian FX market. By the end of the day, RUB had firmed 2.6% against USD to 53.65, while trading activity surged, with the MICEX reporting USD 5.0bn turnover. Like the day before, RUB started with a bold move, reaching the 53.50 level early in the morning. We stick with our view that technical factors are currently playing the key role in the FX market as mainly international accounts cover their USDRUB...

  • 8
    APR15
    RUB: 55.00 marked

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market held another strong session, with USDRUB touching the 55.00 level. Having opened slightly softer, RUB promptly firmed on the back of the continuing upturn in crude prices. RUB even flirted with 54.90, but this turned out to be a strong resistance level, so it eventually closed at 55.03, having gained 0.8% against USD. Brent also enjoyed strong session, gaining 1.3% to USD 57.83/bbl. Trading flows also recovered (MICEX reported USD 3.6bn), but remained moderate from...

  • 7
    APR15
    RUB: to fresh highs

    Yesterday, RUB rallied decently having firmed near 2.2% against USD to 55.46, albeit on the back of a tiny trading flow: total MICEX turnover in USDRUB was only USD 2.3bn. Subdued trading activity does not come as a surprise given the Easter holidays. Brent also showed a decent performance, hiking 5.2% to USD 57.1/bbl. The uptick in oil prices definitely provided support to the Russian FX market, although we think that the main reason behind RUB’s recent strong performance was the covering of USDRUB...

  • 6
    APR15
    RUB: pre-holiday mood

    On Friday, trading action was relatively slow as international desks were half-empty owing to the Easter holidays, with total USDRUB turnover in the MICEX reported at USD 2.8bn. Overall, RUB opened flat at 56.55, but quickly slipped to 57.15 against USD in the absence of USDRUB offer from international investors. However, towards the end of the day, RUB recovered and went on to close at 56.67 vs. USD. Price action in the EM FX universe was more cheery. Specifically, ZAR firmed 1.2% against USD, TRY...

  • 3
    APR15
    RUB: Stop-losses triggered?

    Yesterday, RUB remained well bid. By the end of the day, it gained near 1.8% against USD, having closed at 56.6. At the same time, Brent declined 2.8% to USD 54.9/bbl, but given Wednesday’s bounce, crude remains on a stronger footing. The price action on the Russian exchange market was part of a general trend the EM FX space: the EM FX index firmed 0.5-0.8% yesterday; NOK surged 0.5%. However, we believe that to a certain extent, RUB’s remarkable outperformance was driven by the closing of long USDRUB...

  • 2
    APR15
    RUB: crude’s recovery gives a boost

    Yesterday, RUB generally traded in line with the intraday price action on the oil market. Hence, in the morning RUB opened slightly in the red, but pared losses quickly thanks to the surge in Brent. Thus, at the end of the day, RUB firmed 1.0% against USD (57.60), while Brent gained 4.6% to close at USD 55.8/bbl. Meanwhile, NOK advanced 0.4% and NGN was just a tad higher. At the same time, the EM FX index ended 0.5-0.6% in the black, with ZAR up 1.2%, while BRL and MXN gained 0.7-1.0%. Trading activity...

  • 1
    APR15
    RUB: correction

    Yesterday, RUB weakened near 1.2% against USD to close at 58.19. The re-emergence of downward pressure on EURUSD offered certain support to USD in the Russian FX market, but still RUB slipped near 0.8% against BASKET. As we have pointed out before, hard currency offers from export eased with the end of the tax period, while bids from import strengthened at levels close to 55.0. In addition, the spike in the oil market in the wake of unrest in Yemen proved to be temporary – specifically, the price...

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