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ruble

  • 9
    JUL12
    Ruble REER continued to weaken in June, declining 4.3% MoM

    The ruble real effective exchange rate weakened 4.3% MoM in June, intensifying from a drop of 1.7% MoM (CBR upgraded May data from -2.0% MoM), bringing the YTD change to a negative value of -0.4% (from +4.0% in January-May). The ruble fell against the dollar,...

  • 25
    JUL14
    RUB: there and back

    The Russian currency remains vulnerable to political rhetoric. Thus, in the morning, RUB opened visibly weaker given concerns about EU sanctions on Russian banks. Hence, USDRUB touched 35.15 during the first trading hours up from 34.84 on Wednesday. However, USDRUB later calmed down to 34.95 before closing near 35.00 on the back of news that Russia’s largest corporations would not be on the EU’s list. Thus, in the end, RUB lost near 0.4% against both USD and BASKET (40.43). We highlight RUB failed...

  • 24
    JUL14
    RUB: consolidation continued; taxes in the spotlight

    Yesterday, RUB drifted higher vs. USD (34.80) and vs. BASKET (40.24) in the absence of any negative headlines on the screens and as the reaction to the sanctions is gradually dissipating. Moreover, EM FX is in good shape and RUB lost 1.5% vs. emerging currencies in the last week. Export sales of FX ahead of taxes are likely to only persist until the end of this week, as corporate income tax is expected to be very light this month (about RUB 150bn on our estimates). Moreover, it seems that corporates...

  • 23
    JUL14
    RUB: correction mode

    Yesterday, RUB regained lost ground, rising 0.7% vs. USD (34.96) and 0.9% against BASKET (40.42). It started trading on a stronger footing right in the morning, so the whole session was decent. We noted somewhat increased hard currency selling from exporters, which have likely been accumulating liquidity for Friday’s MET payments. Meanwhile, the EM FX index firmed only 0.2-0.3% against USD, with TRY posting the best performance and closing up 0.6%. Thus, the performance gap between RUB and the rest...

  • 21
    JUL14
    RUB: in a correction mode

    On Friday, RUB reversed some of its earlier losses. In the middle of the day, USDRUB traded as low as 35.0, but failed to break lower and closed at 35.13 as geopolitical risks remained on the agenda. Therefore, RUB gained just near 0.10% against the US dollar and also closed marginally stronger vs. BASKET (40.70, +0.12%). Meanwhile, the rest of EM FX universe performed decently – in particular, ZAR and TRY appreciated 1.10% and 0.80%, respectively. In addition, BRL firmed about 1.45% vs. USD. Overall...

  • 23
    MAY14
    RUB: marking time

    Yesterday’s session in RUB was quite interesting, but in the end RUB closed just marginally stronger, gaining 0.10-0.15% against USD (34.35) and BASKET (39.99). However, during the day RUB attempted to break down below 40.00 vs. BASKET, while USDRUB touched 34.23 as crude oil reached the USD 112.00/bbl mark. Also, exporters have probably been actively selling hard currency preparing for Monday’s MET. The move faded away in the second half of the day amid an escalation of violence in the east of Ukraine...

  • 22
    MAY14
    RUB: appreciation continued

    Yesterday, RUB continued on a stronger footing right from the morning and by the end of the day, it had firmed 0.4% against USD (34.39) and 0.5% vs. BASKET (40.05). Generally stronger risk sentiment with a broad EM FX mini-rally fuelled the price action in RUB. However, the strong performance of the Russian equity market (the RTS index was up 1.4%) amid the announcement of a gas contract between Gazprom and China worth USD 400bn produced a positive impact as well. Especially, given that China is...

  • 7
    MAY14
    CPI - April

    According to Rosstat, in April headline CPI came in line with market expectations, accelerating to 7.3% YoY, the highest since May 2013, when the poor harvest fuelled a spike in food inflation. Component-wise, a combination of the persistent upsurge in food inflation (to 9.0% YoY, adding almost 0.25pp to the acceleration in headline number) and FX-driven price hikes across core categories (0.10pp contribution) remained the main driver. As for the former, the spike in pork prices was by far the major...

  • 30
    APR14
    Rates: move back to pre-CBR hike level

    On Tuesday, RUB continued to perform well as the markets continued to buy RUB on the bounce. RUBBASK closed almost 0.8% lower at 41.80 and USDRUB also closed 0.8% lower at 35.65. RUB looks to be outperforming its EM peers by 1% lately but we do not see any strong reason for the rally in RUB to continue today ahead of the long holidays and thin market liquidity until mid-May. In our view, investors might prefer neutral positions to their RUB longs amid substantial geopolitical risks. Moreover, RUBBASK...

  • 29
    APR14
    RUB: and it happened again

    Yesterday, RUB traded directionless in the first half of the session with BASKET holding near 42.30, i.e. just a tad below the line above which the CBR increases the volume of interventions. In addition, USDRUB flirted with 36.00-36.20 in the morning, an area it has failed to break for the second time in April. Clearly, investors were concerned about the second pack of sanctions, which were presented in the second half of the session. Once again, the target was selected individuals and entities....

  • 28
    APR14
    RUB: premium to EM FX is back at 10%

    Friday's price action in the Russian exchange market was on a softer footing throughout the session. At the end of the day, RUB lost 0.85-0.90% against both USD (36.04) and BASKET (42.26). Despite the clearly weak dynamics, we highlight that RUB FX stayed in the CBR's first intervention band (i.e. that in which the regulator sells USD 102mn daily; the initial USD 200mn is adjusted for the Ministry of Finance’s FX purchases), which is positive for both liquidity and sentiment, in our view. Nevertheless...

  • 24
    APR14
    RUB: marginally weaker

    Yesterday, RUB closed flat against USD (35.68) and BASKET (41.81). Meanwhile, the rest of the EM FX space surrendered 0.2% against USD on average: in particular, ZAR lost 0.4% together with TRY. Hence, RUB continued slowly outperforming its peers. Overall, weaker global risk sentiment weighed on the EM FX yesterday. In addition, lower crude oil prices put pressure on the performance of commodity-driven currencies (including RUB); in particular, NOK ended a little weaker, while AUD slipped 0.8%.

  • 23
    APR14
    RUB: holding ground

    Yesterday, RUB traded in a rather narrow range and closed barely changed at the end of the day. Hence, BASKET’s swings were limited to 41.75-41.90, whilst USDRUB moved inside 35.65-35.75. At the end of the session, USDRUB settled at 35.69 and BASKET at 41.79. Meanwhile, RUB looked better than the rest of the EM FX universe, as the former weakened near 0.25% against USD while TRY and ZAR were down 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. It looks as though RUB is enjoying support from high crude oil prices, coupled...

  • 4
    MAR14
    RUB: not as bad as one might think

    Yesterday morning, BASKET spiked almost to 43.00, while USDRUB broke through 36.80, but the sell-off was rather short-lived thanks to decent CBR support. During the first trading hour, we estimate the regulator sold about USD 6.0bn in interventions, but without the accompanying shift in the BASKET band. Thus, effectively the CBR showed an offer below the market’s initial bid. In total, we think the CBR conducted USD 11-13bn in FX interventions yesterday amid total turnover of USD 17.2bn in USDRUB...

  • 4
    MAR14
    What’s next?

    High political uncertainty puts any projections on very shaky ground, to say the least. Thus, we believe that the best strategy is to wait for the dust to settle. Overall, the risk of more negative headlines coming in the near term is quite high, in our view, which would sustain the premium in Russian FX and rates for a while. Moreover, we do not rule out that the CBR might take more steps aimed at preserving financial stability in the event of mounting pressure on the Russian currency. On the other...

  • 3
    MAR14
    RUB: increased political uncertainty

    On Friday, RUB reacted positively to the press-conference of Viktor Yanukovich: at the end of the day, RUB had firmed near 0.4% against BASKET (42.00) and almost 0.7% vs. USD (35.86). However, escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions over the weekend makes Friday's price action largely irrelevant. The safety bid of households for hard currency has markedly mounted up over the weekend, which is likely to hit the market this morning. Given that RUB has lately been underperforming EM FX on the back of...

  • 28
    FEB14
    RUB: widening the gap to EM FX

    Once again, RUB yesterday traded apart from the rest of the EM FX universe: by the end of the day, RUB had lost 0.3% against USD (36.11) and 0.5% to BASKET (42.16). Selling pressure on RUB mounted right from the morning and persisted for the whole session. Meanwhile, most other EM currencies closed stronger against USD: BRL firmed 1.3% and ZAR advanced 1.1%. Therefore, RUB is now underperforming the average EM FX index by almost 9.0%, a record wide during recent years. Ongoing political turmoil in...

  • 27
    FEB14
    Instability in Ukraine weighs on appetite for rouble

    On Wednesday, RUB lost some 0.8-0.9% vs. hard currencies and remained on a downward trend vs. other emerging market currencies. RUB is underperforming 7-8% YTD. USDRUB closed at 36.01 and RUBBASK is quoted at 42.02 in the morning. Meanwhile, USDRUB turnover was only USD 3.5bn on the MICEX despite RUB refreshing lows since 2009. The intra-day low was 42.10; however, we do not believe that the CBR was selling there in size, as it was the upper bound of the dual-currency basket the day before. The major...

  • 26
    FEB14
    RUB slips on local pressure and Ukraine

    The Russian currency finished yesterday’s session on a softer footing, having lost 0.3-0.4% to both USD (35.59) and BASKET (41.60). Meanwhile, despite some initial pressure, EM FX gained ground in the second half of the day: on average, EM currencies firmed 0.1-0.2%, with ZAR being a clear outperformer (0.8% vs. USD). Commodity-based currencies also firmed generally, with NOK closing 0.2% stronger vs. USD. We think RUB tanked mostly on the back of local demand for FX driven by households. Anecdotal...

  • 25
    FEB14
    RUB: corporate sector to pay mineral extraction tax

    Trading activity in RUB was rather active, with USD 5.6bn traded through USDRUB with (T+1) settlement in MICEX as the corporate sector was preparing for MET payments on Tuesday and there was some relief in Ukraine. We estimate that the corporate sector is due to pay up to RUB 330bn today, including excises. RUB traded in the range of 41.40-41.60 vs. BASKET and 35.40-35.60 vs. USD. Overall, RUB moved in line with other EM currencies and it continues to look 5-6% cheaper than RUB-EMFX historical valuations...

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