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ruble

  • 9
    JUL12
    Ruble REER continued to weaken in June, declining 4.3% MoM

    The ruble real effective exchange rate weakened 4.3% MoM in June, intensifying from a drop of 1.7% MoM (CBR upgraded May data from -2.0% MoM), bringing the YTD change to a negative value of -0.4% (from +4.0% in January-May). The ruble fell against the dollar,...

  • 29
    JUL15
    RUB: behind the EM universe

    Yesterday, volatility on the Russian FX market markedly increased, accompanied by decent trading flows (MICEX turnover picked up to USD 6.2bn). In the morning, USDRUB easily crossed the 60.0 mark and continued moving north to hit 60.30. Lower crude oil prices were the background for RUB’s weakening, as Brent opened in the red following its sluggish performance on Monday. However, EM FX later strengthened amid a general uptick in risk sentiment on the global markets, which helped RUB to pare some...

  • 28
    JUL15
    RUB: export flows miss expectations

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market moved deeper into the red amid decent trading activity. MICEX turnover increased to USD 5.7bn, but export selling flows, such as they were, were dampened by a counter-flow of USDRUB buyers. From the opening, RUB surrendered the 59.00 level, bottoming at 59.85 at noon. A second wave of pressure came late in the evening, when oil finally lost ground, falling as low as USD 53.5/bbl (-2.1%). Hence, RUB weakened to 59.65 against USD, thus losing 1.8% during the day. Meanwhile...

  • 27
    JUL15
    RUB: lacking export support

    On Friday, the Russian FX market saw a more active session, with MICEX trading turnover increasing to USD 4.5bn. Despite the looming key tax dates, the balance on the market remained skewed towards hard currency buyers. At the opening, USDRUB easily broke through the 58.00 to peak at 58.70 in the middle of the day. The oil market also failed to find a stronger footing, with Brent dipping to USD 53.8/bbl, losing 1.4% during the session. In the evening, RUB even started to regain positions, but at...

  • 24
    JUL15
    RUB: surrendering positions

    The Russian FX market found no support yesterday. RUB started the session a bit stronger, approaching 57.30, but in the afternoon pressure on the oil market started to mount, and there was a follow through into RUB dynamics. However, as the day before, the major move on the Russian market happened in late trading. After the end of the Moscow session, Brent dropped to USD 54.6/bbl (-1.4%), the lowest level since April. In the absence of a domestic bid, RUB lost ground, slipping to 57.89 (-0.8%) against...

  • 23
    JUL15
    RUB: crossing the line

    Yesterday, market volatility remained low, but USDRUB finally crossed the 57.00 line, at which it had been marking since the end of last week. Trading activity increased slightly, but remained moderate on an historical basis (MICEX turnover amounted to USD 3.6bn). RUB kicked off on a softer footing right from the morning, scratching 57.15. In the afternoon, the Russian currency found firmer ground for a while, but the oil market, pressurised by the news about a pick-up in API US crude stocks, left...

  • 22
    JUL15
    RUB: another flattish session

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market continued to trade in lull mode, with MICEX turnover remaining as low as USD 2.7bn. In the first half of the session, nothing lit up the radars, with USDRUB hovering near 57.00. In the evening, RUB attempted to break through the 56.7 level, but the momentum was not strong enough, and it rolled back to close at 56.93 against USD. In the meantime, the BASKET slipped 0.4% during the day due to EUR’s bounce to 1.094. Brent recovered to USD 56.1/bbl (+0.8%), which provided...

  • 21
    JUL15
    RUB: resisting the pressure

    Yesterday, RUB continued to trade within a narrow range amid subdued trading activity (MICEX turnover printed only USD 2.7bn). The oil market was trading in the red, but RUB demonstrated a remarkable resilience, hovering most of the session near the 57.00 mark, which has proved to be a strong resistance level for USDRUB in the last few days. In the evening, after the close of the Moscow session, RUB even attempted to strengthen, but still closed flat at 56.96 against USD. In turn, Brent lost 1.2%...

  • 20
    JUL15
    RUB: within a narrow range

    On Friday, RUB kicked off a bit stronger, touching the 56.8 level against USD in the morning amid oil’s timid attempts to recover. However, in the afternoon crude gave up climbing higher, with Brent slipping to USD 56.3/bbl (-0.2%) by the close. USDRUB immediately reacted to oil’s correction, going back to the 57.00 level and marking there for the rest of the session. Hence, RUB closed at 56.95 against USD, flat to the previous day levels. Trading activity was subdued, with MICEX turnover amounting...

  • 17
    JUL15
    RUB: along the 57.00 line

    Yesterday’s session was quite uneventful, with USDRUB trading near the 57.00 mark most of the day. Interestingly, the morning recovery in oil prices went practically unnoticed by the Russian market, while the evening correction contributed to RUB’s slide back to 56.95 after a short-lived bounce to 56.6 vs. USD. Hence, RUB ended the session flat, while Brent finally closed at USD 56.5/bbl, gaining only 0.3%. Meanwhile, we highlight that speculative funds continue to short sell commodities, against...

  • 16
    JUL15
    RUB: behind the EM universe

    Yesterday, RUB had a weak session, settling on a downward trajectory right from the morning. Trading activity was modest: MICEX reported only USD 3.1bn of turnover. Oil’s dynamics pressured RUB the most, with Brent falling 2.6% during the day. In addition, the market was looking to Janet Yellen's monetary policy testimony for hints at the timing of the fed funds rate hike. As a result, RUB slipped 0.9% against USD, edging down at 56.95. Meanwhile, Janet Yellen’s speech contained few surprises. According...

  • 15
    JUL15
    RUB: bounce in late trade

    In the morning, RUB slipped to 57.00 against USD, dragged down by the oil market, which traded near 3.0% in the red. However, that turned out to be a strong support level for the Russian currency, so it marked there for most part of the Moscow session. In the evening, Brent gained momentum, climbing to USD 57.7/bbl (+0.8%) by the close. RUB immediately followed crude, eventually firming 0.2% against USD (56.41). The EM FX universe traded mixed yesterday. Asian currencies remained under pressure,...

  • 14
    JUL15
    RUB: there and back

    Yesterday, the Russian currency endured a rather volatile session, starting the day in the red and almost returning to Friday’s levels by the close. In the afternoon, RUB was trading at 56.80, lacking support from the oil market. In the evening, Brent attempted to pare some of the daily losses, but stumbled, to close at USD 57.3/bbl (-1.4%). However, that provided some support to the Russian FX market, so RUB moved back to 56.55, thus weakening only 0.2% against USD. Meanwhile, BASKET firmed 0.4%...

  • 9
    JUL15
    RUB: finding no foothold

    Yesterday, pressure on the Russian FX market resumed, as the oil market posted unsuccessful attempts to recover and there was no positive news on the geopolitical front. In the morning, Brent was trading near USD 55/bbl, so already at the opening, USDRUB touched the 57.20 level to gain a stronger footing later on the day. In the afternoon, the oil market gained firmer ground, finding itself in the black for a while, but the momentum stalled and Brent closed at USD 56.3/bbl, having declined 0.3% over...

  • 8
    JUL15
    RUB: volatile session

    The beginning of yesterday’s session held little promise for the Russian FX market, with USDRUB easily breaking the 57.00 mark. Pressure on RUB increased in the afternoon, as Brent plunged to USD 54.1/bbl, pushing RUB as low as 57.60 against USD. However, at these levels oil bottomed out, then continued to recover steadily until the end of the day. As a result, Brent bounced up 1.5% to USD 56.5/bbl, providing firmer ground for RUB. The latter managed to close 0.3% in the black, strengthening to 56...

  • 7
    JUL15
    RUB: red ink everywhere

    The main event for the markets at the start of the week was the result of Sunday's referendum in Greece, with most markets moving into the red. Greek banks now face a solvency crisis which compelled the ECB to tighten Greek collateral conditions yesterday by "adjusting the haircuts" on collateral, though the ECB kept the liquidity cap unchanged. EU leaders meet later today and the choice is simple: let Greece leave monetary union or keep it inside and provide some form of debt restructuring...

  • 6
    JUL15
    RUB: 56.0 passed, what next?

    On Friday, trading activity and flows were subdued as the US market were closed for Independence Day. The MICEX reported total turnover of just USD 2.9bn in USDRUB. Meanwhile, all eyes were on the Greek referendum that took place on Sunday, so it is unsurprising that investors were generally cutting down on risk positions. In light of this, the EM FX index slipped 0.3-0.5%, with ZAR down 0.6% and TRY closing 0.2% in the red, while BRL dipped 1.2% and MXN declined 0.5%. The performance of commodity-based...

  • 3
    JUL15
    RUB: ahead of peers

    Yesterday, the Russian FX market turned around again, benefiting from oil’s recovery and the calm newsflow from Greece. RUB opened stronger, promptly touching the 55.60 level, but the next move came in the afternoon, when Brent scratched USD 62.0/bbl. In the evening, the oil market started to lose momentum, but a knee-jerk pull-back in the US dollar after the US jobs report helped RUB to hold its position. As a result, RUB firmed to 55.52 (+0.6%) against USD, while Brent closed at USD 60.8/bbl, surrendering...

  • 2
    JUL15
    RUB: back to base one

    Yesterday’s session in the Russian exchange market was the complete reverse of Tuesday’s. RUB kicked off on a stronger footing, with USDRUB stepping down to 55.30, from 55.60 at the opening. Stable crude oil helped to buoy risk sentiment in commodity-based currencies in the first half of the day, while expectations of a ‘last minute-last second’ deal for Greece underpinned EM and other risk assets in general. However, it was a day of conflicting Greek headlines, with reports that Prime Minister Alexis...

  • 1
    JUL15
    RUB: 56.0 proves a strong resistance level

    The price action in the Russian exchange market kicked off with a quick spike in USDRUB to 56.0. However, it only scratched (but failed to break) the mark, as many market participants started taking profits on long USDRUB positions here. Thus, in a couple of hours after the opening, USDRUB retreated down to 55.60 before settling around 55.80. Later, the oil market revived with the price of nearest Brent futures soaring 2.6% to USD 63.6/bbl, as reports continue to highlight problems in the negotiations...

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