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22APR13
Russian oils: possible changes in taxation
According to Vedomosti, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov has commented on possible changes to oil taxation. Siluanov speculated that if export duty on fuel oil is to be increased by 70%, with excises also slightly shifted up, then the MET rate might be left unchanged. However, there was no data on the increase in excises. The decision has not...
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15APR13
Russian Oil and Gas
... excises payments. Therefore, this should be the reason for the respective decline in retail prices, the Deputy Minister of Finance said. Initially, the lower excises for Euro4 and Euro5 motor fuels were the main reason for the investments of Russian Oil companies in quality upgrades. As of now, the majority of these upgrades are already in place or have passed the point of no return. Thus, any changes in excises or limitations on domestic prices are set to materially affect the economics and financial...
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11APR13
Government continues considering increase in export duties for fuel oil
According to Interfax, Anton Siluanov, the Minister of Finance, has said that export duty on fuel oil might be raised from 66% to 75-80% as early as in 2014. He said that the ministry was considering the move because the planned export duty hike to 100% for fuel oil in 2015 will be tough for the sector, and a gradual increase might ease the transition...
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4APR13
MinFin wants to start converting oil revenues in the open market
... the near term, positive for the money market and mixed for bonds. It is negative for the rouble because at current crude prices, MinFin would be buying FX. According to the Budget Rule, MinFin is only to accumulate funds in the Reserve Fund when the oil price exceeds the long-term average (USD 91/bbl in 2013 and USD 93/bbl in 2014). However, in the longer term, MinFin’s market operations are broadly neutral for the rouble. According to MinFin’s projections, the Reserve Fund is to be replenished with...
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3APR13
1Q13 BoP preliminary data reveals rising dependence on oil
... in 4Q12. The CBR’s first estimate of 1Q13 shows that the CA surplus continued to shrink on a narrower trade balance and the gradual expansion of deficits in services, investment incomes and other CA non-trade balances. Importantly, the breakeven oil Urals price for the CA balance picked up to around USD 86/bbl, from USD 83/bbl in 1Q12. This highlights the increasing vulnerability of Russia’s economy to the oil market. It also underpins our call that until, oil quotes rise, RUB will be under greater...
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12MAR13
Russian oils: gasoline price decreased in March
Gasoline wholesale prices decreased in March, and in particular the St Petersburg commodity exchange index for 92-octane gasoline has lost 2% since the beginning of the month, Kommersant reports. According to the paper, a decrease in oil prices and an increase in gasoline supplies from Belarus might be behind the fall. We believe that the gasoline price decrease is a one-off rather than a sustainable trend. Given that the refinery maintenance season is to start soon, and that domestic...
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11MAR13
China: Low crude oil imports might be skewed by lunar new year
China’s crude oil imports dropped to 5.4mmb/d in February, in preliminary numbers published by the National Bureau of Statistics. That is 9% down on January’s imports and 9% down YoY. Following last month’s customs data release, which had China’s crude imports at...
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7MAR13
EIA data – Stronger than expected rise in crude oil inventory
This week’s EIA data had crude oil inventory rising 3.8mmbbl (+1.0%) WoW, nearly five times the market expectations of a 0.8mmbbl rise. However, total inventory, excluding SPR, fell 2.4mmbbl (-0.2%) WoW. During February, total inventory, excluding SPR, fell nearly 17.0mmbbl (-1.5%)...
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4MAR13
Russian oil and gas companies: discussion of the offshore projects perspectives
... the Arctic offshore. The paper highlights that President Vladimir Putin has signed the Strategic Programme for Developing the Arctic through 2020, which assumes the complex exploration of offshore projects and the establishment of a reserve fund of oil and gas projects. However, Vedomosti points out that exploring such projects might be costly, technically difficult and uncertain. It recalls the unsuccessful experience of international oil majors and the delay in launching the Shtokman project....
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1MAR13
Oil price forecast increase - Brent forecast raised to USD 105/bbl
In order to reflect the strength of oil prices at the start of the year and a more proactive approach by Saudi Arabia, we are raising our Brent forecast for 2013 to USD 105/bbl and our forward forecasts to USD 100/bbl. We continue to see the market as being over-supplied, with the risk...
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28FEB13
EIA data: Crude oil inventory still rising
This week’s EIA data saw crude oil inventory maintain its upward trajectory in spite of an unexpectedly strong return in refinery utilisation. Crude inventory ended the week to 22 February at 377.5mmbbl, 1.1mmbbl higher than the week before and nearly 12% (39.8mmbbl) above the seasonal...
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22FEB13
EIA data – Crude oil inventory reaches seven-month high
This week’s EIA data, released a day later than usual due to the Presidents Day holiday, had a 4.1mmbbl crude oil inventory build WoW, double market expectations. At 376.4mmbbl, crude inventory levels are at their highest since July 2012 and comfortably above the top of the seasonal range. A 0.2mmb/d (+2.3%) WoW increase in crude imports contributed to the inventory...
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14FEB13
VTB fosters cooperation with Slavneft oil and gas company
In December 2012, VTB Group ’s European sub-holding, VTB Bank (France), took part in the syndication of a three-year loan for Slavneft. A group of international lending institutions syndicated US$730 million for the Russian oil and gas producer. VTB Bank First Deputy President and Chairman of the Management Board Yuri Soloviev said: “It was the first time in the history of our relations with Slavneft that VTB Group acted as a co-organiser of the primary syndication of...
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30JAN13
Iran potential to drive oil price up weakening
In our view, Iran was a key driver behind the strength of oil prices during 2012. We expect that the Iran factor will probably have less potency in terms of its impact on oil prices this year because Iranian production has slumped, but now appears to be stabilising, global oil inventories have rebuilt significantly...
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22JAN13
Russian oils: gasoline and diesel prices are increasing
... further 10% on average YoY in 2013. We believe that prices are primarily driven up by high domestic demand and the lack of new refining capacities, combined with an increase in excise taxes from 1 January 2013. We see price growth as positive for Russian oils.
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17JAN13
Russian oils ask the government to reduce gasoline export duty
According to Vedomosti, Russian oil companies have asked the government to reduce export duty on gasoline (currently 90% of crude oil export duty). The paper also quotes the Ministry of Energy saying that despite high export duty, gasoline exports amounted at 3.59mnt in 2012, increasing...
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15JAN13
Russian oil and gas companies: government to consider offshore projects regulation
... liberalisation of offshore regulations as positive for non state-owned companies and the sector, were it to materialise. However, given how long the discussion over offshore projects has lasted, the outcome is uncertain at this point. Government-owned oil and gas companies’ opposition to the proposal by the Ministry of Natural Resources to cut the exploration period to 3-5 years is logical. That would lead to a substantial (and unrealistic) increase in the capital investment program over the next...
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14JAN13
FY12 BoP data implies still strong trade on higher oil prices
... separated FX swaps operations (between the regulator and commercial banks) in BoP, flagging USD 8.8bn for last year. The CBR's estimates reveal a still strong CA surplus, but the visible progress in services imports dragged it down despite slightly higher oil prices. Favorable seasonality and an expected decline in import growth due to a cooling economy underpin a better outlook for RUB in the coming months. However, once the breakeven oil price for CA returns to USD 100/bbl in 2Q13 and 2H13, any marked...
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10JAN13
EIA data – US crude oil production exceeds 7mmb/d
Yesterday’s EIA petroleum status report, the first of the weekly series for the new year, had US crude oil production surpassing the 7mmb/d mark as production rose to the highest levels since 1993. There was a small but counter-seasonal crude inventory build of 1.3mmbbl (+0.4%) WoW taking inventory levels significantly above the top of the seasonal range...
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11DEC12
Preliminary data has Chinese oil demand at an all-time high
... Bureau of Statistics. Under the refinery side methodology (refinery throughput plus net product imports), that would imply demand of 10.4mmb/d which would mark an all-time high. Also, according to preliminary customs data published yesterday, crude oil imports for November reached 5.6mmb/d (+0.1mmb/d, +2% MoM), the highest in six months. Assuming flat MoM domestic crude oil production, China’s implied demand for oil under the crude side methodology (domestic production plus net crude and product...
