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oil

  • 24
    OCT14
    Oils – wholesale gasoline prices decrease – price dynamics in line with our expectations

    ... gasoline has declined 2.7% and 5.2%, respectively, for the last week. We forecast retail gasoline prices to remain broadly flat YoY in USD terms in 2014 in Russia, so the price dynamics are currently in line with our expectations. The key risk here for oil companies is potential government intervention on the market with the intention of putting more control on the retail business in Russia. That would impact the profitability of the retail business, in our view. To recap, wholesale gasoline prices ...

  • 23
    OCT14
    RUB: can’t resist oil

    ... yesterday Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Chairman of the CBR, said that the regulator was going to resist the speculative and panic pressure on the FX market, which might pose a threat to financial stability. However, the main caveat is that increased crude oil volatility makes it hard to distinguish between fundamental adjustments and speculator activities. Hence, we think the CBR is to continue with its current FX intervention policy in the near term.

  • 10
    OCT14
    BoP in 3Q14 - Internal rebalancing at full speed, but oil drop requires more

    ... the current account surplus, running at USD 11.4bn vs. a deficit of USD 0.7bn last year. This was chiefly by virtue of: the gain in the trade balance remaining in the double-digit area (11.2% YoY), although it slowed, as shrinking exports of crude oil and gas were more than recouped by choking merchandise imports (-8.7% YoY); an all-time high annual plunge in investment income deficit (USD 5.8bn) was the largest contributor among the invisible parts of the CA in light of stabilising/dampening ...

  • 16
    SEP14
    RUB: sinking with oil prices

    Yesterday, RUB refreshed historical lows, weakening to 38.30 vs. USD and 43.50 vs. BASKET (i.e. 1.5% lower on the day) on the back of the fall in crude oil prices. Crude traded at around USD 97.2/bbl by the middle of the day, so many oil-linked currencies experienced the sell-off; IDR and NOK also weakened 0.6-0.9%. Of course, the current account balance is to be cut significantly if oil prices hold ...

  • 11
    SEP14
    Oil and Gas – access of independent gas producers to the Power of Siberia pipeline proposed – neutral

    The Ministry of Energy has proposed several ways to provide independent gas producers with access to the Power of Siberia pipeline, Vedomosti reports. The document provided to the government discusses several options: the situation is left unchanged (no access of independent producers to the pipeline); Gazprom might buy gas from independents at the export netback price or at cost plus model; a consortium of independent gas producers might be created to finance the construction of the pipeline. ...

  • 8
    SEP14
    Oil companies – increase in wholesale gasoline prices – neutral

    ... by the repair works at several refineries in Russia and Belarus. We forecast retail gasoline prices to remain broadly flat YoY in USD terms in 2014 in Russia, so the price dynamics are currently in line with our expectations. The key risk here for oil companies is potential governmental intervention on the market with the intention of putting more control on the retail business in Russia. That would impact the profitability of the retail business, in our view.

  • 4
    SEP14
    Oils - more discussions on tax manoeuvre

    Vedomosti writes that as part of the long discussed tax manoeuvre oil companies are to retain their tax holidays for MET in the same in the absolute amount. Some sort of a tax rebate fixed in rouble terms is to be applied to provide for this. We note that the government is yet to announce the final tax rates or clear ...

  • 4
    SEP14
    Oils – excess profit tax rate might stand at 60%, Minenergo suggests

    Kommersant reports today that Russia’s Ministry of Energy has suggested two approaches to the excess profit tax for the sector (the mechanism that will be tested on selected greenfields). These are: i) an excess profit tax (EPT) with oil operating income (which is to have the potential to be reduced by capex) being subject to the tax, or ii) a tax on financial results (TFR), with oil revenues decreased by an ‘uplift’ (current opex, DD&A, prior year losses and a capex rebate for ...

  • 21
    AUG14
    Oil & Gas – Ministry of Finance publishes draft tax manoeuvre

    The Ministry of Finance has published draft law on tax manoeuvre, according to Vedomosti. Kommersant, however, reports slightly different numbers. The discussion about the new tax regime for the oil industry continues, and it is still not clear what the final version will be given that even newspapers are mentioning different numbers. The direction is similar to what we expected (a decrease in export duties and excise coupled with an increase ...

  • 4
    AUG14
    Russian Oils – sanctions are only mildly negative for Russia’s oil production outlook

    According to Vedomosti, the sanctions imposed by the US and EU might negatively affect oil production in Russia. On 29 July, the EU issued a statement that the export of oil equipment to Russian would now require advance approval. Similar sanctions were imposed by the US. There are a number of onshore technologies that Russian oil companies ...

  • 15
    JUL14
    Oils – potential tax manoeuvre might decrease the number of refineries in Russia

    ... Ministry of Energy recently reported that the potential tax manoeuvre might mean that four of Rosneft’s refineries (Komsomolsky, Ryazansky, Saratovsky and Achinsky) as well as Surgutneftegas’ Kirishi become loss-making . As detailed in our Russian Oils: Tax manoeuvre — Snatch, Turkish and Tommy, of 30 June, in refining, the growth in crude netback would mean more expensive feedstock for domestic refineries. However, assuming a netback pricing mechanism, the profitability of upgraded refineries ...

  • 3
    JUL14
    Oil and gas – production statistics for June

    CDU TEK has published its Russian oil and gas production for June. Crude production slightly rose 0.2% YoY to 10.5mmb/d, with Bashneft (+12.4% YoY) and Gazprom Neft (+4.7% YoY) among the leaders. Bashneft’s production growth YoY figure continues to rise, while Gazprom Neft’s production ...

  • 24
    JUN14
    Oils – Tax manoeuvres – new version suggested by MinFin and Minenergo

    Vedomosti reports that MinFin and Minenergo have agreed on the new version of tax manoeuvres, which suggests a gradual decrease in crude and oil products export duties. The ministries also suggested only a gradual increase in fuel oil export duty (was supposed to be 100% in 2015, now in 2017). This is to be partly offset for the budget by the higher than was planned previously increase in ...

  • 11
    JUN14
    Oils – Dvorkovich opposed to sharp changes in oil taxes

    Vedomosti reports that Arkady Dvorkovich, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, yesterday agreed not to sharply raise taxes for the oil sector in Russia. The paper writes this idea was likely pushed by Rosneft. The company proposes slower MET growth (to RUB 620/t by 2018 from RUB 493/t now and vs. the RUB 920/t suggested by MinFin) and export duty for fuel oil growth (vs. 100% starting ...

  • 2
    JUN14
    Russian Oil And Gas – Tax Manoeuvres Episode III: The Phantom Menace

    We have published Russian Oil & Gas – Tax manoeuvres Episode III: The Phantom Menace. A summary is provided below. On a number of occasions, we have highlighted the risk of further potential tax amendments in the Russian oil industry. We now see these as imminent. In anticipation ...

  • 27
    MAY14
    Oils – Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan might keep current trade regulations until 2025

    ... Belarus and Kazakhstan are to sign this week, assumes that the trade liberalisation of the energy sectors of the three countries will be launched in 2025. The base agreement comes into effect in 2015. The conception of the trade liberalisation of the oil, gas and oil products markets might be approved by 2016, and the programme of liberalization by 2018. The Russian Government has been considering some amendments to the tax regime due to trade liberalisation between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan,...

  • 18
    MAR14
    Russian oils – government might consider amendment to the tax manoeuver

    According to Vedomosti, the Russian government is considering some amendments to the already implemented tax manoeuver. The reason for the idea is that starting from 2015, Russia would not be able to set limits on the export of crude oil and oil products through Kazakhstan and Belarus. The paper suggests that this could lead to a shift of the export routes to those countries, as the export duty rates are substantially lower there. Vedomosti also writes that the export duty rate might ...

  • 26
    FEB14
    Ministry of Energy proposes to limit the volume of exported light oil products

    The idea of the Ministry of Energy is to control domestic prices by the growth of the supply of light oil products on the domestic market. This mainly relates to gasoline. However, we do not see any substantial volumes of gasoline marketable on the Russian internal market going abroad. We therefore do not expect this idea to have a sizable effect on the ...

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