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  • 18
    Russian oils – government might consider amendment to the tax manoeuver

    According to Vedomosti, the Russian government is considering some amendments to the already implemented tax manoeuver. The reason for the idea is that starting from 2015, Russia would not be able to set limits on the export of crude oil and oil products through Kazakhstan and Belarus. The paper suggests that this could lead to a shift of the export routes to those countries, as the export duty rates are substantially lower there. Vedomosti also writes that the export duty rate might ...

  • 26
    Ministry of Energy proposes to limit the volume of exported light oil products

    The idea of the Ministry of Energy is to control domestic prices by the growth of the supply of light oil products on the domestic market. This mainly relates to gasoline. However, we do not see any substantial volumes of gasoline marketable on the Russian internal market going abroad. We therefore do not expect this idea to have a sizable effect on the ...

  • 28
    VTB provides credit to oil trader Atek

    VTB Bank has opened a credit facility for Bashkortostan based oil trader Atek with a limit of RUB 5 billion to help the company service its supply contracts. Atek is an oil and refined products trader operating in Russia’s domestic market. Established in 2001, until 2009 it focused mainly on oil refining in Ufa,...

  • 28
    Final China oil data for 2013; pick-up in net speculative positions in Brent

    ... ended 21 January. Speculative net longs dropped to a 14-month low last week and remain more than 60% below the peak in August. The comparatively low number of bullish positions in Brent might reflect market concerns over areas such as growing tight oil production from North America, question marks over the scale of growth of the Chinese economy/demand and the ability of OPEC to curb output, if necessary, to balance the market. Total Open Interest for futures and options rose 1.2% WoW. Over the same ...

  • 14
    Oils – government plans no increase in excise taxes on oil products — neutral

    According to Vedomosti, the government plans not increase excise taxes on oil products until 2017. Before 2016, excise rates will remain unchanged. In our models, we forecasted an increase in excise taxes for oil products of 7-13% in 2014, 10-20% in 2015 and no increases afterwards. This was in line with previously approved ...

  • 10
    Oil & Gas Price View - 2014 outlook, 2013 wrap

    We have published a detailed outlook on our oil and gas price forecasts for 2014 and a review of 2013 (see Oil & Gas Price View - 2014 outlook, 2013 wrap, of 10 January). We maintain our USD 100/bbl Brent forecast for 2014, as we expect OPEC will be able to manage production to around 30mmb/d, ...

  • 20
    Oil – transportation tariff for diesel might be increased 12%

    ... in diesel prices (consumes 3mnt of diesel per year). The hike in diesel transportation tariffs, if it materialises, would likely be transferred on to domestic wholesale and retail prices. This would partially protect the refining margins of Russian Oils, we believe. Export deliveries, on the other hand would likely face a negative effect from growth in transportation expenses. However, the impact on the EBITDA for the companies under our coverage in 2014 would be around 1%, we estimate, which is ...

  • 19
    Drop in speculative net longs in Brent; MENA region fiscal breakeven oil price rises

    ... USD 0.33/bbl WoW to USD 93.04/bbl, with the discount to Brent widening to USD 12.77/bbl. The WTI discount to Brent has since widened further to over USD 14/bbl. The IMF published its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia. For oil exporters in the MENA region, the IMF forecasts a reduction in the GDP annual growth rate to 1.9% in 2013 (versus 3.2% per the May Regional Economic Outlook Update), from 5.4% in 2012. The cut was attributed to renewed disruptions oil production in ...

  • 13
    IEA September OMR – Oil market tightness set to ease into 4Q13

    There were minor changes in the IEA’s forecasts in its September Oil Market Report, the most notable of which was a 0.2mmb/d cut in the call on OPEC crude for 2014. The report confirms a MoM reduction in OPEC output following the collapse in Libyan production. However, it also notes that Saudi Arabian production has ...

  • 16
    Why Egypt matters for the oil price outlook

    The Brent price has been on a broadly downward track over the last year (Figure 1) and has averaged USD 107.90/bbl YTD, down 3.4% on the FY12 outturn of USD 111.71/bbl. However, events in Egypt have jolted the oil price upward starting with the ousting of President Morsi on 3 July, gaining traction with the sustained disruption to Libyan production since then and ramped up by the violent clearance of the Islamist protest camps in Cairo on Wednesday. Egypt itself ...

  • 13
    Russian Oils

    ... more important prior to the planning maintenance season at Russian refineries. We believe that the current growth in motor fuel prices is temporary rather than driven by major structural issues. We also note that MinEnergo recommended that Russian oils stop gasoline export and increase its stocks recently. Overall, the news was marginally negative for Russian Oil companies. The FAS has imposed fines on Russian Oils three times in recent years, and we do not rule out a similar outcome this time; ...

  • 10
    Russian oils decreased crude exports in 1H13

    Vedomosti reports that Russian oil companies decreased crude export to ‘far abroad’ countries 2% in 1H13, despite an increase in production for the period. At the same time, the companies started to send more crude to domestic refineries (throughput grew 2.4% YoY in 1H13), where ...

  • 3
    Oil and Gas taxation changes passed at the first reading in the State Duma

    Interfax reports that all the changes to oil and gas taxation recently proposed by the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Finance (apart from offshore oil development) have been passed at the first reading in the State Duma. These are: new excise taxes with higher rates for Euro-4-5 gasoline,...

  • 14
    Russia has largest shale oil resource

    ... of global shale resources outside the US. We commented extensively on the initial study from April 2011. The new study substantially broadens the number of countries, basins and formations analysed, as well as incorporating estimates for shale/tight oil resources, for the first time. This new study incorporates initial estimates for Russia and suggests Russia is the largest holder of technically recoverable resources (TRR) of shale oil, with 75bbbl potential, approximately 29% more than the US, which ...

  • 22
    Russian oils: possible changes in taxation

    According to Vedomosti, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov has commented on possible changes to oil taxation. Siluanov speculated that if export duty on fuel oil is to be increased by 70%, with excises also slightly shifted up, then the MET rate might be left unchanged. However, there was no data on the increase in excises. The decision has not ...

  • 15
    Russian Oil and Gas

    ... excises payments. Therefore, this should be the reason for the respective decline in retail prices, the Deputy Minister of Finance said. Initially, the lower excises for Euro4 and Euro5 motor fuels were the main reason for the investments of Russian Oil companies in quality upgrades. As of now, the majority of these upgrades are already in place or have passed the point of no return. Thus, any changes in excises or limitations on domestic prices are set to materially affect the economics and financial ...

  • 11
    Government continues considering increase in export duties for fuel oil

    According to Interfax, Anton Siluanov, the Minister of Finance, has said that export duty on fuel oil might be raised from 66% to 75-80% as early as in 2014. He said that the ministry was considering the move because the planned export duty hike to 100% for fuel oil in 2015 will be tough for the sector, and a gradual increase might ease the transition....

  • 4
    MinFin wants to start converting oil revenues in the open market

    ... the near term, positive for the money market and mixed for bonds. It is negative for the rouble because at current crude prices, MinFin would be buying FX. According to the Budget Rule, MinFin is only to accumulate funds in the Reserve Fund when the oil price exceeds the long-term average (USD 91/bbl in 2013 and USD 93/bbl in 2014). However, in the longer term, MinFin’s market operations are broadly neutral for the rouble. According to MinFin’s projections, the Reserve Fund is to be replenished ...

  • 3
    1Q13 BoP preliminary data reveals rising dependence on oil

    ... 4Q12. The CBR’s first estimate of 1Q13 shows that the CA surplus continued to shrink on a narrower trade balance and the gradual expansion of deficits in services, investment incomes and other CA non-trade balances. Importantly, the breakeven oil Urals price for the CA balance picked up to around USD 86/bbl, from USD 83/bbl in 1Q12. This highlights the increasing vulnerability of Russia’s economy to the oil market. It also underpins our call that until, oil quotes rise, RUB will be under ...

  • 12
    Russian oils: gasoline price decreased in March

    Gasoline wholesale prices decreased in March, and in particular the St Petersburg commodity exchange index for 92-octane gasoline has lost 2% since the beginning of the month, Kommersant reports. According to the paper, a decrease in oil prices and an increase in gasoline supplies from Belarus might be behind the fall. We believe that the gasoline price decrease is a one-off rather than a sustainable trend. Given that the refinery maintenance season is to start soon, and that domestic ...

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