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oil

  • 15
    JUL14
    Oils – potential tax manoeuvre might decrease the number of refineries in Russia

    ... Ministry of Energy recently reported that the potential tax manoeuvre might mean that four of Rosneft’s refineries (Komsomolsky, Ryazansky, Saratovsky and Achinsky) as well as Surgutneftegas’ Kirishi become loss-making . As detailed in our Russian Oils: Tax manoeuvre — Snatch, Turkish and Tommy, of 30 June, in refining, the growth in crude netback would mean more expensive feedstock for domestic refineries. However, assuming a netback pricing mechanism, the profitability of upgraded refineries ...

  • 3
    JUL14
    Oil and gas – production statistics for June

    CDU TEK has published its Russian oil and gas production for June. Crude production slightly rose 0.2% YoY to 10.5mmb/d, with Bashneft (+12.4% YoY) and Gazprom Neft (+4.7% YoY) among the leaders. Bashneft’s production growth YoY figure continues to rise, while Gazprom Neft’s production ...

  • 24
    JUN14
    Oils – Tax manoeuvres – new version suggested by MinFin and Minenergo

    Vedomosti reports that MinFin and Minenergo have agreed on the new version of tax manoeuvres, which suggests a gradual decrease in crude and oil products export duties. The ministries also suggested only a gradual increase in fuel oil export duty (was supposed to be 100% in 2015, now in 2017). This is to be partly offset for the budget by the higher than was planned previously increase in ...

  • 11
    JUN14
    Oils – Dvorkovich opposed to sharp changes in oil taxes

    Vedomosti reports that Arkady Dvorkovich, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, yesterday agreed not to sharply raise taxes for the oil sector in Russia. The paper writes this idea was likely pushed by Rosneft. The company proposes slower MET growth (to RUB 620/t by 2018 from RUB 493/t now and vs. the RUB 920/t suggested by MinFin) and export duty for fuel oil growth (vs. 100% starting ...

  • 2
    JUN14
    Russian Oil And Gas – Tax Manoeuvres Episode III: The Phantom Menace

    We have published Russian Oil & Gas – Tax manoeuvres Episode III: The Phantom Menace. A summary is provided below. On a number of occasions, we have highlighted the risk of further potential tax amendments in the Russian oil industry. We now see these as imminent. In anticipation ...

  • 27
    MAY14
    Oils – Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan might keep current trade regulations until 2025

    ... Belarus and Kazakhstan are to sign this week, assumes that the trade liberalisation of the energy sectors of the three countries will be launched in 2025. The base agreement comes into effect in 2015. The conception of the trade liberalisation of the oil, gas and oil products markets might be approved by 2016, and the programme of liberalization by 2018. The Russian Government has been considering some amendments to the tax regime due to trade liberalisation between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan,...

  • 18
    MAR14
    Russian oils – government might consider amendment to the tax manoeuver

    According to Vedomosti, the Russian government is considering some amendments to the already implemented tax manoeuver. The reason for the idea is that starting from 2015, Russia would not be able to set limits on the export of crude oil and oil products through Kazakhstan and Belarus. The paper suggests that this could lead to a shift of the export routes to those countries, as the export duty rates are substantially lower there. Vedomosti also writes that the export duty rate might ...

  • 26
    FEB14
    Ministry of Energy proposes to limit the volume of exported light oil products

    The idea of the Ministry of Energy is to control domestic prices by the growth of the supply of light oil products on the domestic market. This mainly relates to gasoline. However, we do not see any substantial volumes of gasoline marketable on the Russian internal market going abroad. We therefore do not expect this idea to have a sizable effect on the ...

  • 28
    JAN14
    VTB provides credit to oil trader Atek

    VTB Bank has opened a credit facility for Bashkortostan based oil trader Atek with a limit of RUB 5 billion to help the company service its supply contracts. Atek is an oil and refined products trader operating in Russia’s domestic market. Established in 2001, until 2009 it focused mainly on oil refining in Ufa,...

  • 28
    JAN14
    Final China oil data for 2013; pick-up in net speculative positions in Brent

    ... ended 21 January. Speculative net longs dropped to a 14-month low last week and remain more than 60% below the peak in August. The comparatively low number of bullish positions in Brent might reflect market concerns over areas such as growing tight oil production from North America, question marks over the scale of growth of the Chinese economy/demand and the ability of OPEC to curb output, if necessary, to balance the market. Total Open Interest for futures and options rose 1.2% WoW. Over the same ...

  • 14
    JAN14
    Oils – government plans no increase in excise taxes on oil products — neutral

    According to Vedomosti, the government plans not increase excise taxes on oil products until 2017. Before 2016, excise rates will remain unchanged. In our models, we forecasted an increase in excise taxes for oil products of 7-13% in 2014, 10-20% in 2015 and no increases afterwards. This was in line with previously approved ...

  • 10
    JAN14
    Oil & Gas Price View - 2014 outlook, 2013 wrap

    We have published a detailed outlook on our oil and gas price forecasts for 2014 and a review of 2013 (see Oil & Gas Price View - 2014 outlook, 2013 wrap, of 10 January). We maintain our USD 100/bbl Brent forecast for 2014, as we expect OPEC will be able to manage production to around 30mmb/d, ...

  • 20
    NOV13
    Oil – transportation tariff for diesel might be increased 12%

    ... in diesel prices (consumes 3mnt of diesel per year). The hike in diesel transportation tariffs, if it materialises, would likely be transferred on to domestic wholesale and retail prices. This would partially protect the refining margins of Russian Oils, we believe. Export deliveries, on the other hand would likely face a negative effect from growth in transportation expenses. However, the impact on the EBITDA for the companies under our coverage in 2014 would be around 1%, we estimate, which is ...

  • 19
    NOV13
    Drop in speculative net longs in Brent; MENA region fiscal breakeven oil price rises

    ... USD 0.33/bbl WoW to USD 93.04/bbl, with the discount to Brent widening to USD 12.77/bbl. The WTI discount to Brent has since widened further to over USD 14/bbl. The IMF published its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia. For oil exporters in the MENA region, the IMF forecasts a reduction in the GDP annual growth rate to 1.9% in 2013 (versus 3.2% per the May Regional Economic Outlook Update), from 5.4% in 2012. The cut was attributed to renewed disruptions oil production in ...

  • 13
    SEP13
    IEA September OMR – Oil market tightness set to ease into 4Q13

    There were minor changes in the IEA’s forecasts in its September Oil Market Report, the most notable of which was a 0.2mmb/d cut in the call on OPEC crude for 2014. The report confirms a MoM reduction in OPEC output following the collapse in Libyan production. However, it also notes that Saudi Arabian production has ...

  • 16
    AUG13
    Why Egypt matters for the oil price outlook

    The Brent price has been on a broadly downward track over the last year (Figure 1) and has averaged USD 107.90/bbl YTD, down 3.4% on the FY12 outturn of USD 111.71/bbl. However, events in Egypt have jolted the oil price upward starting with the ousting of President Morsi on 3 July, gaining traction with the sustained disruption to Libyan production since then and ramped up by the violent clearance of the Islamist protest camps in Cairo on Wednesday. Egypt itself ...

  • 13
    AUG13
    Russian Oils

    ... more important prior to the planning maintenance season at Russian refineries. We believe that the current growth in motor fuel prices is temporary rather than driven by major structural issues. We also note that MinEnergo recommended that Russian oils stop gasoline export and increase its stocks recently. Overall, the news was marginally negative for Russian Oil companies. The FAS has imposed fines on Russian Oils three times in recent years, and we do not rule out a similar outcome this time; ...

  • 10
    JUL13
    Russian oils decreased crude exports in 1H13

    Vedomosti reports that Russian oil companies decreased crude export to ‘far abroad’ countries 2% in 1H13, despite an increase in production for the period. At the same time, the companies started to send more crude to domestic refineries (throughput grew 2.4% YoY in 1H13), where ...

  • 3
    JUL13
    Oil and Gas taxation changes passed at the first reading in the State Duma

    Interfax reports that all the changes to oil and gas taxation recently proposed by the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Finance (apart from offshore oil development) have been passed at the first reading in the State Duma. These are: new excise taxes with higher rates for Euro-4-5 gasoline,...

  • 14
    JUN13
    Russia has largest shale oil resource

    ... of global shale resources outside the US. We commented extensively on the initial study from April 2011. The new study substantially broadens the number of countries, basins and formations analysed, as well as incorporating estimates for shale/tight oil resources, for the first time. This new study incorporates initial estimates for Russia and suggests Russia is the largest holder of technically recoverable resources (TRR) of shale oil, with 75bbbl potential, approximately 29% more than the US, which ...

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