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  • 13
    Weekly CPI – inflation returned to 6.1% YoY as 10 February on 7-month high vegetable inflation

    ... behind CPI growth this week were more broad-based, but the key elements were almost the same (in order of importance): potatoes (+3.8% WoW), onions (+3.9%), vodka (+1.2%) and cabbage (+4.2%). February tends to bring a slowdown in fruit and vegetable inflation, but this year has turned out to be in complete contrast to the usual pattern. In particular, the weekly growth in potato prices hit the highest level since late June and added around one third to the weekly CPI increase (0.06pp out of 0.19%)....

  • 19
    Weekly CPI – annual inflation sticky at 6.5% YoY as of 16 December

    ... in the previous week. We did not note any major surprises in CPI behaviour in either the past week or the first half of December. Fruit and veg. prices are gathering some pace in line with their seasonal pattern and do not imply any pressure on YoY inflation. Thus, potatoes remained among key CPI drivers, advancing 1.4% WoW. Egg price growth has been normalising and last week slid to deflation (-0.4% WoW vs. 2.7% WoW increase this autumn, on average). Partly, this flags that the favourable harvest ...

  • 12
    Weekly CPI – annual inflation sticky at 6.5% YoY as of 9 December

    ... slowed to 0.015% during the reported period, vs. the highest weekly pace since mid-October of 0.021% in the previous week. Deflation in gasoline and normalisation in egg price growth (from 6% WoW in mid-October to zero last week), along with slower inflation in non-reported items, were the major factors for the decelerating pace of daily consumer inflation. Meanwhile, growth in fruit and vegetable prices continued to rise (+0.6% WoW vs. +0.4% WoW in the previous week), which reflects a seasonal ...

  • 6
    November figures give food for thought on inflation

    ... 29% YoY the month before). Tariffs have also added to the uptick in the pace of headline CPI: passenger transportation services added 8.8% YoY vs. 7.5% YoY in October. Meanwhile, non-food prices remained at 4.5% YoY, a three-year low. Rosstat’s core inflation edged up to 5.6% YoY vs. 5.5% in October. Headline CPI surprised on the upside in November, flagging that there is almost no chance of the CBR’s inflation target range for this year being hit. The pickup in food inflation was once again to ...

  • 4
    CBR might implement ‘gradual’ policy easing along with declining inflation

    ... rates demonstrated the same dynamics and surged 3bp. The 2-year IRS rate is 6.76% and 5-year IRS rate is 7.17%. Yesterday, the CBR governor commented on monetary and FX policy, and admitted that the CBR might start a ‘gradual’ policy easing once inflation comes down, but that the economic slowdown was structural in nature. Hence, this is supportive for lower rates across segments, i.e. XCCY, IRS and RUONIA OIS swaps. Nevertheless, the XCCY curve is less aggressive than a few months ago at the ...

  • 20
    Weekly CPI – inflation moderation continues to outpace expectations

    According to a report released by Rosstat, CPI increased 0.27% on 1-17 December. Average daily price growth stood at 0.019% last week, up from 0.014% registered in the previous week and a bit below the 0.020% recorded on 13-19 December 2011. The detailed breakdown shows that last week’s growth came mainly from WoW price rises in eggs (2.0%), potatoes (1.3%), cabbage (1.4%), rye bread (0.6%), milk (0.3%), and butter (0.3%). Furthermore, fruit and vegetable prices continued to accelerate last week...

  • 6
    Inflation again surprised to the downside

    ... in the previous month. In MoM terms, it added mere 0.3%. The non-food component eased to 5.2% YoY in November, from 5.3% YoY in October. The annual growth in the other main parts of the consumer prices index remained unchanged across the board: food inflation was flat at 7.3% YoY (for the third consecutive month), services’ prices grew 5.8% YoY and Rosstat’s core inflation was at 7.2% YoY. In separate news, according to the weekly CPI report, the CPI increased 0.04% in the first three days of ...

  • 15
    Low and stable inflation ahead?

    Slow growth and surprisingly low inflation are likely to lead to the end of the CBR’s tightening cycle. However, does that mean the CBR has achieved longterm success in fighting inflation in Russia? I believe that we shall not see the answer to this question until 2H13 and that the ...

  • 24
    Food shock 2012Inflation higher, trade balance weaker

    This year’s higher global wheat prices (mainly because of the drought in the US) and poorer harvest in Russia YoY mean that we could see more severe inflation risks and a weaker trade balance. According to our base case scenario for 2012, Russia’s harvest is at a normal level (down from last year’s above normal), except for grain. Unlike 2010, when a drought seriously affected the Russian harvest ...

  • 5
    Inflation stays at 3.7% YoY in March

    According to Rosstat, CPI accelerated to 0.6% MoM in March (from 0.4% MoM in February), while in annual terms, it was flat at 3.7% YoY. The detailed breakdown reveals that services and non-food inflation remained unchanged in March, while food inflation subsided to a new historical low of 1.3% YoY (from 1.5% YoY). Core inflation increased to 0.5% MoM (from 0.4% MoM), while in annual terms, it softened to 5.5% YoY (from 5.7% YoY).  The ...

  • 17
    Russian Economy Monthly - March; chilling recession winds blow

    ... tighter financial conditions, likely dipping the economy into a recession over 2Q-3Q14. We are lowering our FY14 growth outlook to 0.0%, and see downside risks if uncertainty remains elevated for a protracted period and/or severe sanctions are imposed. Inflation to pick up in near term before dropping in 2H. Inflation has been picking up since February, as prices for the more exposed (and least FX hedged) categories have adjusted upwards. A weaker rouble, however, is yet to be translated into the broader ...

  • 30
    Weekly CPI – added 0.51% for 1-27 January

    ... The driving forces behind CPI growth this week remained the same: onions (+2.5% WoW), potatoes (+2.0% WoW) and vodka (+0.7% WoW). Over the last reported period, the growth in vodka, potato and onion prices were again the key contributors to weekly inflation. However, for the YoY CPI growth their performance relative to January 2013 is of greater importance. In the first 27 days of January this year, the increase in vodka prices added 0.09pp to headline CPI growth vs. 0.41pp during 1-28 January ...

  • 28
    Russia Output & Demand - winter sun melts incomes

    Rosstat has published its December statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment increased to 5.6%, from 5.4% in November. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also ticked up to 5.6%. Real retail sales growth decelerated 0.7pp to 3.8% YoY on the food component. Investment in fixed capital growth managed to stay in the black with a 0.3% YoY increase, likely owing to the favourable base effect. Construction declined 3.0% YoY, after the modest 0.3% YoY drop a month ago. Real wage growth...

  • 20
    Macro week ahead

    ... December CPI report from South Africa. On Wednesday, Rosstat is to publish the weekly CPI data in Russia. The week ends with December’s reports on IP in Russia and retail sales in Poland. In Turkey, the intensifying currency weakness and elevated inflation (FY13 headline CPI reached 7.4% YoY, up from 6.1% the previous year, owing to higher food and fuel prices on the cold weather and TRY weakness, respectively) is forcing the CBRT to tighten policy further in 2014. While it came as a surprise ...

  • 2
    Macro week ahead

    ... readings in the CEEMEA region are to be scrutinised for signs of expansion, confirming that the ‘optical rebound’ in Russia, as well as the economic recovery in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, has or will gain some momentum. The core disinflation trend continues in Russia, we believe (though we shall be carefully watching for signs of a delayed FX pass-through impact). However, headline CPI is likely to stay flat at 6.3% YoY in November, as although food prices are becoming less of an ...

  • 8
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview

    Today, the CBR is due to take its next monetary policy decision. Although underlying growth momentum does not seem to have improved in the recent past and the negative output gap is likely to have widened further, elevated food inflation is set to keep the CBR firmly on hold for now. Given persistent tensions on the money market, we look for any hints at additional measures to improve the transmission mechanism.

  • 7
    CPI - October

    Yesterday, the full-month CPI report for October was published. Headline CPI accelerated to 6.3% YoY last month, from 6.1% YoY in September, surpassing both our (6.2%) and the Bloomberg consensus expectations (6.1%). The pick-up in vegetables inflation on the back of the harvest season being disrupted by flooding was the main culprit, explaining the entire 0.2pp acceleration in the headline. Surging prices for eggs (29.3% YoY) and dairy products (11.6% YoY) did not help either, but this was ...

  • 5
    Manufacturing PMI

    ... 50-mark to a new multi-year low. Amidst stronger demand, the output sub-index improved to 54.9, this year’s high. The employment sub-index also edged higher to 48.6, but stayed below the 50-mark for 12 months in a row with one exception. Otherwise, inflation sub-indices indicated the lowest pace of prices growth since May 2013, with output prices at 51.1 and input prices at 54.0. In line with the broad-based improvement across the Asia region, Russian manufacturing PMI rebounded in October....

  • 31
    Weekly CPI

    ... month, consumer prices added 0.53% (vs. 0.52% during the same period of 2012). The average daily growth in consumer prices eased slightly to 0.019% during the reported period, from 0.023% in the previous week. The deceleration in the weekly consumer inflation was mainly triggered by moderating price gains on eggs (to 3.8%, from 5.9% a week ago), potatoes (to 1.0%, from 2.9%) and onion (to 1.1%, from 2.1%). The recent weekly CPI print flags an encouraging deceleration in eggs, dairy and veg. prices ...

  • 24
    Weekly CPI

    ... month, consumer prices added 0.40% (vs. 0.48% during the same period of 2012). The average daily growth in consumer prices advanced slightly to 0.023% during the reported period, from 0.018% in the previous week. The acceleration in the weekly consumer inflation was mainly triggered by price rises speeding up on eggs (to 5.9%, from 4.6% a week ago), potatoes (to 2.9%, from 2.7%) and cabbage (to 0.1%, from -0.5%). Elevated inflation (the annual growth in consumer prices stood at 6.0% as of 21 October,...

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