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  • 18
    Weekly CPI – inflation creeps up to this year's high of 7.8%

    Rosstat reports that CPI added 0.32% over 1-15 September, with the average daily inflation ticking down a bit to 0.020% during 9-15 September vs. 0.022% in the previous week. Component-wise, the increases in the prices of cucumbers (4.4% WoW), gasoline (0.3%), tomatoes (2.8%), pork (0.8%) and chicken (0.6%), as well as meat-related ...

  • 4
    Weekly CPI – inflation steps up to 7.6% YoY as of 1 September

    Rosstat reports that CPI added 0.1% over 26 August-1 September, with average daily inflation continuing to creep up: it reached 0.020% on 1 September vs. 0.016% in the previous week. Component-wise, the increase in chicken (+1.1% WoW), gasoline (+0.2%) and pork (+0.6%) prices, as well as cheese and cucumbers, were the key inflation ...

  • 8
    Inflation – continued to subside in July in MoM terms

    News: According to Ukrstat, July CPI stood at 0.4% MoM, down from 1.0% MoM in June and moderating for the second month in a row. At the same time, the headline YoY index rose to 12.6%, from 12.0% YoY in June. 7mo14 inflation reached 12.6%. Prices on food and clothes items contracted, while the strongest increase was in the utility and housing costs amid a hike in heating and water tariffs. Growth in PPI also eased, to 2.7% MoM in July from June's 3.6% MoM, but the ...

  • 5
    Inflation - disinflation kicks in - but supply-side risks blur the outlook again

    The headline CPI expectedly ticked down to 7.5% YoY, marking its first decline since the start of the year. The slower indexation of regulated tariffs was the main disinflationary driver last month, while food inflation remained elevated and core inflation was stable amid the waning pass-through from a weaker currency. Looking ahead, the robust harvest this season would have suggested a benign outlook, if not for the ...

  • 4
    Macro week ahead – inflation in Russia moderates, early indicators point downwards

    This week is relatively light on market-moving data releases across our CEEMEA universe, with the CPI report from Russia taking centre stage. Rosstat is to release its July inflation numbers early this week, with the headline number expected at 7.5% YoY (its first decline since the start of the year). The slower indexation of regulated tariffs this year was the main disinflationary driver in July, while food inflation is ...

  • 31
    Weekly CPI – annual inflation drops to 7.5% as of 28 July

    ... Component-wise , the slowdown was to a significant extent attributed to moderating price gains for eggs (+0.1%), gasoline (+0.3%) and chicken (+0.9%); deflation across vegetables also gathered pace. Although still elevated, it is encouraging to see food inflation starting to moderate, particularly across the categories that have recently been the main push factors (eggs and chicken). This likely heralds a turnaround for food inflation and, other things being equal, we would expect significant food disinflation ...

  • 3
    Weekly CPI – inflation crawled up to a peak of 7.8% YoY by the end of June

    According to the latest weekly report, the CPI added 0.56% during June, with the average daily price growth edging up slightly to 0.021% from the previous week and staying above last year's daily inflation in the corresponding week (+0.010%). In terms of components, inflation last week was led by eggs (+2.0%), chicken (+0.9% WoW), gasoline (+0.3%) and sugar (+0.6%). It just so happens that this weekly CPI report covers all the days in the month ...

  • 26
    Weekly CPI – inflation peaks at 7.7% YoY as of 23 June

    CPI added 0.41% during the first 23 days of June, with the average daily price growth flat on the previous week at 0.015% (but slightly above last year's daily inflation in the corresponding week). In terms of components, inflation last week was led by chicken (+1.4% WoW), eggs (+1.3%), gasoline (+0.2%) and sugar (+1.0%). Although the price gain on meat-related goods (in particular beef, pork and chicken) ...

  • 13
    Weekly CPI – inflation returned to 6.1% YoY as 10 February on 7-month high vegetable inflation

    ... behind CPI growth this week were more broad-based, but the key elements were almost the same (in order of importance): potatoes (+3.8% WoW), onions (+3.9%), vodka (+1.2%) and cabbage (+4.2%). February tends to bring a slowdown in fruit and vegetable inflation, but this year has turned out to be in complete contrast to the usual pattern. In particular, the weekly growth in potato prices hit the highest level since late June and added around one third to the weekly CPI increase (0.06pp out of 0.19%)....

  • 19
    Weekly CPI – annual inflation sticky at 6.5% YoY as of 16 December

    ... in the previous week. We did not note any major surprises in CPI behaviour in either the past week or the first half of December. Fruit and veg. prices are gathering some pace in line with their seasonal pattern and do not imply any pressure on YoY inflation. Thus, potatoes remained among key CPI drivers, advancing 1.4% WoW. Egg price growth has been normalising and last week slid to deflation (-0.4% WoW vs. 2.7% WoW increase this autumn, on average). Partly, this flags that the favourable harvest ...

  • 12
    Weekly CPI – annual inflation sticky at 6.5% YoY as of 9 December

    ... slowed to 0.015% during the reported period, vs. the highest weekly pace since mid-October of 0.021% in the previous week. Deflation in gasoline and normalisation in egg price growth (from 6% WoW in mid-October to zero last week), along with slower inflation in non-reported items, were the major factors for the decelerating pace of daily consumer inflation. Meanwhile, growth in fruit and vegetable prices continued to rise (+0.6% WoW vs. +0.4% WoW in the previous week), which reflects a seasonal ...

  • 6
    November figures give food for thought on inflation

    ... 29% YoY the month before). Tariffs have also added to the uptick in the pace of headline CPI: passenger transportation services added 8.8% YoY vs. 7.5% YoY in October. Meanwhile, non-food prices remained at 4.5% YoY, a three-year low. Rosstat’s core inflation edged up to 5.6% YoY vs. 5.5% in October. Headline CPI surprised on the upside in November, flagging that there is almost no chance of the CBR’s inflation target range for this year being hit. The pickup in food inflation was once again to ...

  • 4
    CBR might implement ‘gradual’ policy easing along with declining inflation

    ... rates demonstrated the same dynamics and surged 3bp. The 2-year IRS rate is 6.76% and 5-year IRS rate is 7.17%. Yesterday, the CBR governor commented on monetary and FX policy, and admitted that the CBR might start a ‘gradual’ policy easing once inflation comes down, but that the economic slowdown was structural in nature. Hence, this is supportive for lower rates across segments, i.e. XCCY, IRS and RUONIA OIS swaps. Nevertheless, the XCCY curve is less aggressive than a few months ago at the ...

  • 20
    Weekly CPI – inflation moderation continues to outpace expectations

    According to a report released by Rosstat, CPI increased 0.27% on 1-17 December. Average daily price growth stood at 0.019% last week, up from 0.014% registered in the previous week and a bit below the 0.020% recorded on 13-19 December 2011. The detailed breakdown shows that last week’s growth came mainly from WoW price rises in eggs (2.0%), potatoes (1.3%), cabbage (1.4%), rye bread (0.6%), milk (0.3%), and butter (0.3%). Furthermore, fruit and vegetable prices continued to accelerate last week...

  • 6
    Inflation again surprised to the downside

    ... in the previous month. In MoM terms, it added mere 0.3%. The non-food component eased to 5.2% YoY in November, from 5.3% YoY in October. The annual growth in the other main parts of the consumer prices index remained unchanged across the board: food inflation was flat at 7.3% YoY (for the third consecutive month), services’ prices grew 5.8% YoY and Rosstat’s core inflation was at 7.2% YoY. In separate news, according to the weekly CPI report, the CPI increased 0.04% in the first three days of ...

  • 15
    Low and stable inflation ahead?

    Slow growth and surprisingly low inflation are likely to lead to the end of the CBR’s tightening cycle. However, does that mean the CBR has achieved longterm success in fighting inflation in Russia? I believe that we shall not see the answer to this question until 2H13 and that the ...

  • 24
    Food shock 2012Inflation higher, trade balance weaker

    This year’s higher global wheat prices (mainly because of the drought in the US) and poorer harvest in Russia YoY mean that we could see more severe inflation risks and a weaker trade balance. According to our base case scenario for 2012, Russia’s harvest is at a normal level (down from last year’s above normal), except for grain. Unlike 2010, when a drought seriously affected the Russian harvest ...

  • 5
    Inflation stays at 3.7% YoY in March

    According to Rosstat, CPI accelerated to 0.6% MoM in March (from 0.4% MoM in February), while in annual terms, it was flat at 3.7% YoY. The detailed breakdown reveals that services and non-food inflation remained unchanged in March, while food inflation subsided to a new historical low of 1.3% YoY (from 1.5% YoY). Core inflation increased to 0.5% MoM (from 0.4% MoM), while in annual terms, it softened to 5.5% YoY (from 5.7% YoY).  The ...

  • 12
    Macro week ahead

    ... less beneficial base effect than a quarter ago. As for the Czech Republic, the weak crown (the CNB drew the line at 27 against the euro) and the highly favourable base effect might have boosted growth significantly in 1Q14 to 2.5% YoY. However, CEE inflation is likely close to zero, well below respective targets. In Russia, MinEconomy guided for an 0.8% YoY gain in GDP growth in 1Q14 (and - 0.5% QoQ SA), but we are more conservative, expecting 0.6% YoY with a 1.3% QoQ SA drop. Component-wise, slowing ...

  • 8
    Russia Early Indicators – April

    The start of 2Q14 saw more of the same trends observed in the previous quarters – weakening domestic and export demand, deteriorating business sentiment and elevated inflationary pressure. Thus, Russia is slipping into technical recession, but on the positive side this process seems slow and gradual rather than massive and sharp. Also of note, although FX pass-through is yet to push core inflation higher in 2Q14, ...

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