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  • 3
    Weekly CPI – inflation crawled up to a peak of 7.8% YoY by the end of June

    According to the latest weekly report, the CPI added 0.56% during June, with the average daily price growth edging up slightly to 0.021% from the previous week and staying above last year's daily inflation in the corresponding week (+0.010%). In terms of components, inflation last week was led by eggs (+2.0%), chicken (+0.9% WoW), gasoline (+0.3%) and sugar (+0.6%). It just so happens that this weekly CPI report covers all the days in the month ...

  • 26
    Weekly CPI – inflation peaks at 7.7% YoY as of 23 June

    CPI added 0.41% during the first 23 days of June, with the average daily price growth flat on the previous week at 0.015% (but slightly above last year's daily inflation in the corresponding week). In terms of components, inflation last week was led by chicken (+1.4% WoW), eggs (+1.3%), gasoline (+0.2%) and sugar (+1.0%). Although the price gain on meat-related goods (in particular beef, pork and chicken) ...

  • 13
    Weekly CPI – inflation returned to 6.1% YoY as 10 February on 7-month high vegetable inflation

    ... behind CPI growth this week were more broad-based, but the key elements were almost the same (in order of importance): potatoes (+3.8% WoW), onions (+3.9%), vodka (+1.2%) and cabbage (+4.2%). February tends to bring a slowdown in fruit and vegetable inflation, but this year has turned out to be in complete contrast to the usual pattern. In particular, the weekly growth in potato prices hit the highest level since late June and added around one third to the weekly CPI increase (0.06pp out of 0.19%)....

  • 19
    Weekly CPI – annual inflation sticky at 6.5% YoY as of 16 December

    ... in the previous week. We did not note any major surprises in CPI behaviour in either the past week or the first half of December. Fruit and veg. prices are gathering some pace in line with their seasonal pattern and do not imply any pressure on YoY inflation. Thus, potatoes remained among key CPI drivers, advancing 1.4% WoW. Egg price growth has been normalising and last week slid to deflation (-0.4% WoW vs. 2.7% WoW increase this autumn, on average). Partly, this flags that the favourable harvest ...

  • 12
    Weekly CPI – annual inflation sticky at 6.5% YoY as of 9 December

    ... slowed to 0.015% during the reported period, vs. the highest weekly pace since mid-October of 0.021% in the previous week. Deflation in gasoline and normalisation in egg price growth (from 6% WoW in mid-October to zero last week), along with slower inflation in non-reported items, were the major factors for the decelerating pace of daily consumer inflation. Meanwhile, growth in fruit and vegetable prices continued to rise (+0.6% WoW vs. +0.4% WoW in the previous week), which reflects a seasonal ...

  • 6
    November figures give food for thought on inflation

    ... 29% YoY the month before). Tariffs have also added to the uptick in the pace of headline CPI: passenger transportation services added 8.8% YoY vs. 7.5% YoY in October. Meanwhile, non-food prices remained at 4.5% YoY, a three-year low. Rosstat’s core inflation edged up to 5.6% YoY vs. 5.5% in October. Headline CPI surprised on the upside in November, flagging that there is almost no chance of the CBR’s inflation target range for this year being hit. The pickup in food inflation was once again to ...

  • 4
    CBR might implement ‘gradual’ policy easing along with declining inflation

    ... rates demonstrated the same dynamics and surged 3bp. The 2-year IRS rate is 6.76% and 5-year IRS rate is 7.17%. Yesterday, the CBR governor commented on monetary and FX policy, and admitted that the CBR might start a ‘gradual’ policy easing once inflation comes down, but that the economic slowdown was structural in nature. Hence, this is supportive for lower rates across segments, i.e. XCCY, IRS and RUONIA OIS swaps. Nevertheless, the XCCY curve is less aggressive than a few months ago at the ...

  • 20
    Weekly CPI – inflation moderation continues to outpace expectations

    According to a report released by Rosstat, CPI increased 0.27% on 1-17 December. Average daily price growth stood at 0.019% last week, up from 0.014% registered in the previous week and a bit below the 0.020% recorded on 13-19 December 2011. The detailed breakdown shows that last week’s growth came mainly from WoW price rises in eggs (2.0%), potatoes (1.3%), cabbage (1.4%), rye bread (0.6%), milk (0.3%), and butter (0.3%). Furthermore, fruit and vegetable prices continued to accelerate last week...

  • 6
    Inflation again surprised to the downside

    ... in the previous month. In MoM terms, it added mere 0.3%. The non-food component eased to 5.2% YoY in November, from 5.3% YoY in October. The annual growth in the other main parts of the consumer prices index remained unchanged across the board: food inflation was flat at 7.3% YoY (for the third consecutive month), services’ prices grew 5.8% YoY and Rosstat’s core inflation was at 7.2% YoY. In separate news, according to the weekly CPI report, the CPI increased 0.04% in the first three days of ...

  • 15
    Low and stable inflation ahead?

    Slow growth and surprisingly low inflation are likely to lead to the end of the CBR’s tightening cycle. However, does that mean the CBR has achieved longterm success in fighting inflation in Russia? I believe that we shall not see the answer to this question until 2H13 and that the ...

  • 24
    Food shock 2012Inflation higher, trade balance weaker

    This year’s higher global wheat prices (mainly because of the drought in the US) and poorer harvest in Russia YoY mean that we could see more severe inflation risks and a weaker trade balance. According to our base case scenario for 2012, Russia’s harvest is at a normal level (down from last year’s above normal), except for grain. Unlike 2010, when a drought seriously affected the Russian harvest ...

  • 5
    Inflation stays at 3.7% YoY in March

    According to Rosstat, CPI accelerated to 0.6% MoM in March (from 0.4% MoM in February), while in annual terms, it was flat at 3.7% YoY. The detailed breakdown reveals that services and non-food inflation remained unchanged in March, while food inflation subsided to a new historical low of 1.3% YoY (from 1.5% YoY). Core inflation increased to 0.5% MoM (from 0.4% MoM), while in annual terms, it softened to 5.5% YoY (from 5.7% YoY).  The ...

  • 12
    Macro week ahead

    ... less beneficial base effect than a quarter ago. As for the Czech Republic, the weak crown (the CNB drew the line at 27 against the euro) and the highly favourable base effect might have boosted growth significantly in 1Q14 to 2.5% YoY. However, CEE inflation is likely close to zero, well below respective targets. In Russia, MinEconomy guided for an 0.8% YoY gain in GDP growth in 1Q14 (and - 0.5% QoQ SA), but we are more conservative, expecting 0.6% YoY with a 1.3% QoQ SA drop. Component-wise, slowing ...

  • 8
    Russia Early Indicators – April

    The start of 2Q14 saw more of the same trends observed in the previous quarters – weakening domestic and export demand, deteriorating business sentiment and elevated inflationary pressure. Thus, Russia is slipping into technical recession, but on the positive side this process seems slow and gradual rather than massive and sharp. Also of note, although FX pass-through is yet to push core inflation higher in 2Q14, ...

  • 7
    CPI - April

    According to Rosstat, in April headline CPI came in line with market expectations, accelerating to 7.3% YoY, the highest since May 2013, when the poor harvest fuelled a spike in food inflation. Component-wise, a combination of the persistent upsurge in food inflation (to 9.0% YoY, adding almost 0.25pp to the acceleration in headline number) and FX-driven price hikes across core categories (0.10pp contribution) remained the main driver....

  • 6
    Manufacturing PMI

    ... both local and export, moderated, with the respective sub-indices inching up to 48.2 and 46.0, respectively. Meanwhile, the employment sub-index edged up to 48.0, but remained below the waterline, pointing to continued cost optimisation efforts. The inflationary impact of a weaker rouble continued to propagate through the economy, as the pass-through from cost inflation, which actually eased somewhat (to 65.7), into output prices (57.2) strengthened. April’s PMI report shows that Russian manufacturers ...

  • 17
    Russian Economy Monthly - March; chilling recession winds blow

    ... tighter financial conditions, likely dipping the economy into a recession over 2Q-3Q14. We are lowering our FY14 growth outlook to 0.0%, and see downside risks if uncertainty remains elevated for a protracted period and/or severe sanctions are imposed. Inflation to pick up in near term before dropping in 2H. Inflation has been picking up since February, as prices for the more exposed (and least FX hedged) categories have adjusted upwards. A weaker rouble, however, is yet to be translated into the broader ...

  • 30
    Weekly CPI – added 0.51% for 1-27 January

    ... The driving forces behind CPI growth this week remained the same: onions (+2.5% WoW), potatoes (+2.0% WoW) and vodka (+0.7% WoW). Over the last reported period, the growth in vodka, potato and onion prices were again the key contributors to weekly inflation. However, for the YoY CPI growth their performance relative to January 2013 is of greater importance. In the first 27 days of January this year, the increase in vodka prices added 0.09pp to headline CPI growth vs. 0.41pp during 1-28 January ...

  • 28
    Russia Output & Demand - winter sun melts incomes

    Rosstat has published its December statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment increased to 5.6%, from 5.4% in November. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also ticked up to 5.6%. Real retail sales growth decelerated 0.7pp to 3.8% YoY on the food component. Investment in fixed capital growth managed to stay in the black with a 0.3% YoY increase, likely owing to the favourable base effect. Construction declined 3.0% YoY, after the modest 0.3% YoY drop a month ago. Real wage growth...

  • 20
    Macro week ahead

    ... December CPI report from South Africa. On Wednesday, Rosstat is to publish the weekly CPI data in Russia. The week ends with December’s reports on IP in Russia and retail sales in Poland. In Turkey, the intensifying currency weakness and elevated inflation (FY13 headline CPI reached 7.4% YoY, up from 6.1% the previous year, owing to higher food and fuel prices on the cold weather and TRY weakness, respectively) is forcing the CBRT to tighten policy further in 2014. While it came as a surprise ...

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