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  • 26
    SEP14
    RUB: USD is king

    Yesterday’s session in the Russian exchange market ended on a sour note. RUB lost 0.8% against USD (38.49) and 0.6% vs. BASKET (43.22). Perhaps this was because the export offer has, at least partially, faded away, so RUB surrendered its positions in the first half of the day. However, later we witnessed a continued rise in USD, which strengthened further against DM and EM peers. In particular, the EM FX index weakened 0.7-1.0% yesterday with TRY down 1.3% and BRL closing 1.7% in the red. Meanwhile...

  • 26
    SEP14
    Money market: CBR reveals terms for the October 312-P auction

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap surged to 9.0%, a level not seen since July. At the same time, this was just a local spike perhaps explained by the liquidity squeeze in one of a few banks as corporates submitted MET to the budget. Meanwhile, the weighted-average rate printed at 7.35% (+35bp), i.e. in line with Monday’s levels amid VAT payment. The pressure on liquidity is likely to subside today, thanks to the Treasury’s deposit auction; yesterday it allocated RUB 30bn on one-month deposits at an...

  • 24
    SEP14
    Money market: overnight FX swap holds above 7.0%

    At one stage yesterday, the weighted-average overnight FX swap had gained 7bp to 7.36%; however, it closed at 6.23%. The reaction of the NDF market to this was predictable: the front end widened visibly. In particular, 1M and 3M NDFs moved up 20bp to 7.82% and 8.19%, respectively. Meanwhile, 12M NDF closed barely changed at 8.49%. At the same time, longer dated XCCY swap rates moved 4-6bp lower, with the two-year rate closing at 8.18%. Hence, the 1s2s XCCY swap spread moved from - 25bp to -35bp....

  • 23
    SEP14
    RUB: following the common trend

    Yesterday, RUB weakened 0.5-0.6% against both USD (38.66) and BASKET (43.56). The trading session was quite volatile as USDRUB moved between 38.45 and 38.70 during the day. The drop in the price of crude oil was clearly one of the key drivers behind the USDRUB performance. Hence, Brent dropped 1.8% to USD 95.20 yesterday. However, we also highlight that the EM FX index slipped 0.5%, with ZAR and BRL closing down 0.7-0.8%. At the same time, EM FX slipped late in the evening, while there was pressure...

  • 23
    SEP14
    Money market: overnight FX swap is above 30D MA

    Demand for liquidity picked up yesterday due to the VAT payment. Subsequently, the overnight repo rate widened 15-20bp to 8.65-8.70%. Hence, we think that today the CBR will be willing to increase the limit for the one-week repo auction in order to ensure the smooth passage of the MET and corporate profit taxes, due soon. Meanwhile, the Treasury has allocated RUB 170bn for three-month deposits at 10%. It was a bit of a strange auction, as the volume of bids equalled exactly RUB 170bn and there were...

  • 17
    SEP14
    RUB: in the black thanks to the CBR

    Yesterday, RUB renewed its historical lows. Intraday volatility was quite high; in particular, USDRUB surged to 38.80, then touched 38.90 and slipped to 38.50 shortly thereafter. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil price has picked up around 1.0% to USD 97.50, while EM FX index gained 0.3-0.4% vs. USD. Moreover, MXN, BRL, TRY and ZAR ended 0.5-0.7% firmer against USD. In our view, this means that positioning in the market is fairly one way right now, while RUB’s weakening during the previous sessions happened...

  • 17
    SEP14
    CBR – launches new sell/buy FX swap facility

    Yesterday, after the market closed, the CBR launched a new USDRUB sell/buy overnight swap facility to provide dollar liquidity. The implied yield would be around 5.50%, which is lower than the actual money market level. In line with our expectations (see our RUSSIA – CBR Monetary Policy Decision – Reason prevails of 12 September), the CBR has introduced ...

  • 23
    DEC13
    RUB weakened in line with EM FX

    On Friday, RUB marginally weakened against both USD (32.99) and BASKET (38.44). However, RUB slipped only 0.05-0.1%, which was still better than the average performance of EM FX. Thus, on average EM FX weakened 0.3% against USD, with TRY down almost 1.0%, while BRL declined near 1.3%. Overall, last week RUB materially outperformed EM peers: hence, on average EM FX lost near 1.0% to USD, while RUB weakened only 0.4%. Thus, RUB's performance was more correlated with the swings in other commodity-based...

  • 12
    NOV13
    Trade surplus

    According to the CBR, the trade surplus in September continued to expand and advanced to USD 15.7bn (from USD 13.8bn in August), the highest level since March 2013. The annual growth in exports edged up to 3.3%, accelerating from 2.3% in the previous month, and added 4.4% in MoM SA terms. The annual growth in imports rebounded to 5.3%, correcting from a deep drop of 5.3% YoY in August, and the growth in MoM SA terms also improved to 3.8% following two months of decline. During September, the external...

  • 29
    OCT13
    World Bank Doing Business 2014

    The World Bank has released its 2014 Ease of Doing Business rankings. Russia was among the most improved economies 2012-13 (moving up nineteen positions to 92nd from 111th last year) and was one of the top-three countries as far as the scope of reforms was concerned. The biggest progress was in the ‘getting electricity’ category, where Russia surged from 188th (last but one) to 117th, reflecting faster (162 vs. 281 days) and cheaper (USD 37,000 vs. USD 164,000) procedures. There was also a marked...

  • 22
    OCT13
    CBR – halves daily target interventions

    Yesterday, the CBR announced that the amount of daily target interventions had been cut to USD 60mn, from USD 120mn before. The decision follows closely in the footsteps of a series of changes in FX policy that the regulator has introduced since pressure on RUB subsided at the start of September. The liquidity drain through the interventions channel was of concern for the regulator as it interfered with the policy transmission, thus reducing the efficiency of the regulators’ liquidity provision/management...

  • 14
    OCT13
    Trade surplus

    According to the CBR, the trade surplus in August picked up a bit and increased to USD 13.8bn (from USD 13.3bn in July), the highest level this summer. The annual growth in exports slowed to 2.3%, normalising from 5.5% in the previous month, and added 0.9% in MoM SA terms. The annual growth in imports plunged into the red again, with a drop of 5.3% (after 1.5% growth in July) and the growth in MoM SA terms stayed below zero (although printing a softer decline of 2.2% vs. 2.9%). The August trade...

  • 4
    OCT13
    BoP

    According to the CBR, in 3Q13 the CA surplus worsened by two thirds to USD 1.1bn. The key drag on the CA balance came from an increased deficit in services and investment income. The trade balance surplus edged up 11.2% YoY to USD 42.8bn on the slower growth in imports (0.5% YoY) coupled with a 6.8% YoY jump in oil and gas exports. Also, net private capital outflows more than doubled QoQ to USD 14.8bn, but were still notably lower than in 1Q13 (USD 37.8bn). This brings the 9mo13 figure to USD 49...

  • 6
    SEP13
    RUB: decoupling from EM peers

    On Thursday, RUB decoupled from other EM peers, closing flat to its opening vs. BASKET and only 0.3% down vs. USD. USDRUB closed at 33.43 and RUBBASK at 38.15. At the same time, other EM FX were hit again as UST yields have been on an upward trend and 10-year UST was knocking at the 3% level. Thus, RUB gained an extra 0.2% against the EM FX.

  • 3
    SEP13
    RUB: slightly behind EM peers

    Yesterday’s trading activity in the Russian exchange market was fairly low as the US markets were closed. RUB closed 0.2% weaker against both BASKET (38.16) and USD (33.37), while EM FX peers generally ended on a stronger footing as global risk sentiment firmed. As we highlighted last Friday, so far the market does not price in elevated crude oil in RUB as the recent spike in oil looks temporary, especially in light of what looks like a declining probability of military intervention in Syria in the...

  • 28
    AUG13
    RUB: weaker on the day, but better than peers

    ... risk appetite and the continued sell off on the local currency debt markets, yesterday’s price action is nothing spectacular. However, we highlight that RUB looked better than major peers as, on average, the EM FX spectrum surrendered near 0.8% to US Dollar. The CBR continues selling hard currency and the band for RUBBASK most likely now stands at 32.10–39.10 (at least). The strong performance of crude oil clearly provides support for the Russian currency. However, it is still unclear, whether the ...

  • 6
    AUG13
    Non-CIS imports continued to stagnate

    Customs has published its first estimate for non-CIS imports for July. The headline figure came in at USD 24.7bn, with the YoY growth of 0.3% being weaker than the 2.3% in June. Despite the weak headline, the details are not that weak: excluding volatile components, imports gained 2.2% YoY (vs. the decline of 0.3% YoY last month) as in July the YoY weakness was mainly driven by the sharp decline in aircraft imports (- 68% YoY to just USD 314mn). Car imports are still the main drag on imports...

  • 22
    JUL13
    MinEconomy says GDP at 1.7% YoY in 1H13

    According to the Ministry for the Economy, real annual GDP growth advanced to 1.5% in June (adjusting for seasonal and calendar factors, the MoM change in GDP was 0% last month), from 1.0% in May, bringing the growth in 2Q13 to 1.9% YoY, from 1.6% over the first quarter. Thus, over 1H13, Russia's economy added 1.7% YoY. Commenting on the key growth drivers, Deputy Minister for Economic Development Andrey Klepach mentioned household demand, while investments were lagging. He also said that the economy...

  • 12
    JUL13
    Trade surplus prints one-off pick-up in May

    According to the CBR, the trade surplus in May advanced to USD 15.0bn (from USD 14.2bn in April), the second highest level this year. The scale of its contraction in annual terms also moderated, to 14.3%. Exports continued to decline, but the decline intensified to 9.3% YoY, while in MoM SA terms it returned to the black: +0.9%. Annual growth in imports plunged to the negative area, with a drop of 6.3% YoY (and of -2.4% MoM SA) from a rather strong increase of 10.1% YoY in the previous month. ...

  • 9
    JUL13
    OPEC production fell in June

    OPEC production is seen to have dropped MoM in June, according to estimates by the technical press, with Libyan production in particular weaker MoM. Argus and MEES put June OPEC production down 340kb/d and 370kb/d MoM, respectively. Libyan production is estimated some 170-250kb /d lower MoM in June on continued unrest and labour disruptions. Industrial action at oil terminals reduced production and forced shut-downs , including at Repsol’s 350kb/d El Sharara field. Production at Eni’s (Hold, TP...

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