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  • 12
    ECB to the rescue

    ... news of its weak 1Q12 trading update, published yesterday. In the less liquid space, there were substantial movements in Highland Gold (+7.2%, 0.3x), CEDC (+6.0%, 0.7x), MOESK (-4.3%, 0.3x) and EDC (-3.1%, 0.3x). On the corporate calendar front today, Sberbank and NCSP have their recordsdates, and Globaltrans is reporting FY11 IFRS. 

  • 12
    CBR announces lending statistics for March

    ... depreciation. The retail portfolio increased 3.5% MoM (and 40.7% YoY). The overall portfolio performance (2.3% MoM and 27.3% YoY) comes above the previously guided expansion of 1.9% MoM and implies a further recovery in demand. It also suggests that Sberbank was again the major driver of retail book growth, with the bank flagging robust demand for loans. These latest statistics imply upside risks to the consensus forecasts for FY12 lending growth of 20% YoY and our more conservative assessment of ...

  • 9
    Weak US March payrolls dent sentiment

    ... could negatively impact the natgas monopoly’s EBITDA (but we believe that a higher tax makes the government a more material stakeholder in Gazprom and, hence, creates new incentives to improve governance at the company; see story inside). In Banks, Sberbank (-2.1%, 0.5x) published reassuring 1Q12 RAS numbers, but failed to buck the trend. Among the outperformers, we note Transneft pref. (-0.4%, 0.3x), which generated some comments about reduced capex and dividends on Friday. Sentiment towards Bashneft ...

  • 6
    CBR expects lending and deposit rates to decline

    ... banks’ 20% YoY guidance for FY12. It also implies upside risks to our forecast of the loan book expanding 15% YoY. Meanwhile, the CBR’s outlook on rates echoes banks’ estimates voiced during the recent reporting season, including the statement by Sberbank CEO German Gref that deposit rates would start to decline soon. The February data on interest rates already suggests that deposit rates are decreasing (40bp MoM for term deposits), which we see as positive for NIM in 2H12. Even though lending ...

  • 21
    Oil price in the spotlight

    ... Thursday: the RTS index closed below the 1,700 level (1,693) and a thin 1% above the previous local bottom of 1,677. Blue chips were sold off more intensively, with gas names Gazprom (-3.0%, 1.3x 1M ADTV) and NOVATEK (-6.1%, 1.3x) underperforming and Sberbank (-1.5%, 1.0x) enjoying a better bid. Among other liquid names there were noticeable price movements registered in Norilsk Nickel (-4.2%, 1.3x), Uralkali (+2.1%, 2.0x – see the supportive news on the 2Q12 contracts with China below), NLMK (+1....

  • 20
    Russian equities presage oil prices moving lower?

    ... across Russia’s main Energy names might be telling just this story, even as other sectors provided a much better return on balance. Thus, among blue chips index heavyweight Gazprom (-2.9%, 1.3x) put the main drag on the gauges, while the most liquid Sberbank (-0.4%, 0.9x) managed partly to smoothen the decline on the back of the relatively good performance from the Financial sector overall (both in Russia and globally). Materials even ended slightly in the black, with UC RUSAL (+4.4%, 2.4x) and Severstal ...

  • 19
    Continuing to outperform peers

    ..., activity remained high as total turnover in Russian stocks printed USD 5.4bn (40% above average). Among bright single stock movers in the liquid space we note Surgutneftegaz prefs (+2.4%, 2.7x, +8.1% WoW), Transneft prefs (+3.9%, 1.2x; +7.1% WoW), Sberbank prefs (+1.9%, 1.6x; +8.5% WoW, see the story on dividends below) and MRSK Holding (+1.3%, 0.8x; +9.4%WoW) which provided the best return among MSCI Russia constituents over the week, now outperforming FSK (-3.7%, 1.4x, -5.1% WoW) by 33pp on the ...

  • 28
    VTB's transformation

    ... number amongst the largest companies in the world, so the first task was to build up the balance sheet and make the bank big. The bank’s state origins made this task relatively easy. When Kostin took over, VTB had $4bn in assets; today it has $160bn. Sberbank was preoccupied with retail clients and many of the other large state-owned banks are captives of one of the leading companies. VTB slotted into the role of “leading independent state-owned bank”, if that’s not an oxymoron. “It was not ...

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