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Russia

  • 16
    JUL14
    European Council – to consider additional sanctions for Russia today

    Today, the European Council is to consider the matter of introducing additional economic sanctions against Russia in light of the ongoing (and recently escalating) military standoff in eastern Ukraine. Yesterday, ITAR-TASS reported that nine countries (including Germany, France and Italy) were against such action, which would require consensus among EU members ...

  • 15
    JUL14
    Oils – potential tax manoeuvre might decrease the number of refineries in Russia

    ... the Ministry of Energy recently reported that the potential tax manoeuvre might mean that four of Rosneft’s refineries (Komsomolsky, Ryazansky, Saratovsky and Achinsky) as well as Surgutneftegas’ Kirishi become loss-making . As detailed in our Russian Oils: Tax manoeuvre — Snatch, Turkish and Tommy, of 30 June, in refining, the growth in crude netback would mean more expensive feedstock for domestic refineries. However, assuming a netback pricing mechanism, the profitability of upgraded refineries ...

  • 4
    JUL14
    Russia Early Indicators – June

    Yesterday, we published our regular Russia Early Indicators report, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for the first summer month of 2014. We provide key extracts from the report below. At the beginning of summer, the sun seemed to be shining on the ...

  • 25
    JUN14
    Russian Equities Strategy - Through a glass darkly

    Yesterday, we published Russian Equities Strategy - Through a glass darkly. Excerpts from this report are given below. The start of 2014 was a rollercoaster ride for the Russian stock market, as the EM-led slide was followed by a geopolitical shock from Ukraine. As the risks ...

  • 8
    MAY14
    Russia Early Indicators – April

    The start of 2Q14 saw more of the same trends observed in the previous quarters – weakening domestic and export demand, deteriorating business sentiment and elevated inflationary pressure. Thus, Russia is slipping into technical recession, but on the positive side this process seems slow and gradual rather than massive and sharp. Also of note, although FX pass-through is yet to push core inflation higher in 2Q14, cost inflation has already started ...

  • 5
    MAY14
    Russian Economy Monthly - May

    Spring got underway with rising geopolitical tensions propagating into an uncertainty shock and the first damage assessment reveals that the sectors of the Russian economy have each been unhappy in their own way. Households brought forward discretionary spending in anticipation of a spike in import prices and found refuge for their savings in cash FX and real estate. Corporates slashed capex outlays and ...

  • 28
    APR14
    Rating downgrade – S&P lowers Russia to BBB- – leaves negative outlook

    On Friday, S&P cut its foreign currency rating on Russia to BBB- from BBB due to rising risks to the country’s growth prospects on large capital outflows in 1Q14 and the narrower possibility for external financing. It kept the rating outlook as negative, citing risks to Russia's creditworthiness from ...

  • 18
    APR14
    Russia Output & Demand – March

    Yesterday, Rosstat published its March statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment slid to 5.4%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%. Real retail sales growth almost unchanged at 4.0%, mainly due to the non-food component, which posted a gain of 6.9%, the strongest since January 2013, offsetting the slowdown in food items (+0.7% YoY vs. 1.8% YoY a month ago). Investment in fixed capital remained under water, but the pace of its decline slightly advanced to 4.3% YoY...

  • 21
    MAR14
    Russia Output & Demand - February; enjoy cheerful data while it lasts

    Rosstat has published its February statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment remained at 5.6%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. Real retail sales growth almost doubled, to 4.1%, mainly due to the non-food component, which posted a 13-month high annual gain of 6.4% (vs. 3.4% in January). Investment in fixed capital remained under water, but the pace of its decline halved to 3.5% YoY. Construction simultaneously softened its drop to 2.4% YoY, after a significant...

  • 17
    MAR14
    Russian Economy Monthly - March; chilling recession winds blow

    This morning, we published our regular Russian Economy Monthly. An extract from the front page is presented below. Uncertainty shock hits. There are many signs that the economy is now being hit by an uncertainty shock. Faced with heightened uncertainty, firms are delaying investment and ...

  • 6
    MAR14
    Russia Early Indicators - February

    This morning, we have published our regular Russia Early Indicators report, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for the last winter month of 2014. We provide key extracts from the report below. February’s early economic statistics (survey-based and hard data) ...

  • 17
    FEB14
    Macro week ahead – January data for Russia

    In Russia, the week starts with Rosstat releasing its monthly raft of economic statistics for January, including data on IP, internal demand and the labour market. On Wednesday, the regular weekly CPI is due out in Russia. Otherwise, the main focus is the ...

  • 13
    FEB14
    Russian Economy Monthly - February; Hot.Cool.Yours.

    Yesterday, we published our regular Russian Economy Monthly. An abstract from the front page is presented below. Hot. The rouble led the EM sell-off in January. With a 7% YTD weakness, the rouble looks technically oversold, and we expect a rebound toward USDRUB 33.5 through 1Q14. From ...

  • 6
    FEB14
    Russia: CPI – January; disinflation takes hold

    Last month, headline CPI decelerated 0.4pp to 6.1% YoY, in line with our and the consensus estimates. January’s inflation slowed on moderating food and tariffs inflation. Core inflation remained in check despite some price gains across non-regulated services. That said, early February disinflation continued and the recent weekly CPI report implies that headline inflation has slid to 6.0% YoY, thanks to deflation in eggs and slow gasoline inflation. Looking ahead, we expect disinflation to gather...

  • 28
    JAN14
    Russia Output & Demand - winter sun melts incomes

    Rosstat has published its December statistics pack on economic conditions. Unemployment increased to 5.6%, from 5.4% in November. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also ticked up to 5.6%. Real retail sales growth decelerated 0.7pp to 3.8% YoY on the food component. Investment in fixed capital growth managed to stay in the black with a 0.3% YoY increase, likely owing to the favourable base effect. Construction declined 3.0% YoY, after the modest 0.3% YoY drop a month ago. Real wage growth...

  • 10
    JAN14
    Russia Early Indicators - December; warm weather and chilling sentiment

    Yesterday, we published our regular Russia Early Indicators report, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for the last month of 2013. We provide key extracts from the report below. December’s early economic releases (both survey-based and hard data) ...

  • 18
    DEC13
    2014 Russian Equities Outlook - A study in investment

    Yesterday, we published 2014 Russian Equities Outlook - A study in investment. Excerpts from this report are given below. The ‘Russian discount’ does not stem from the quality of assets, instead it arises from investment governance, in our view. Investments have limited pass-through ...

  • 18
    DEC13
    Russia to invest USD 15bn in Ukrainian Eurobonds

    Yesterday in Moscow, the presidents of Russia and Ukraine signed several major deals and supplements to existing agreements. The major items of note are as follows. Russia is to invest USD 15bn into new Ukrainian Eurobonds over the course of the next few years, with the first issuance of up ...

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