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Russia

  • 12
    MAY15
    Macro week ahead – 1Q15 GDP estimates in Russia and CEE3

    This week, the key news flow is the 1Q15 GDP in CEE3 and April CPI statistics in the Czech Republic and Poland. Making the news in Russia is Rosstat’s 1Q15 GDP estimate and the regular weekly CPI numbers. In addition, AEB is to present new car sales statistics and the Ministry of Finance releases its budget execution numbers for April. In our CEE3 countries, the spillover from ...

  • 28
    APR15
    Russia: more room for manoeuvre

    Since the CBR’s BoD meeting in March, data releases have provided additional evidence of stabilisation in depreciation expectations and the normalisation of the inflation run rate. First, the March CPI print demonstrated a sizable decline in sequential inflation, from 3.4% MoM SA in January 2015 to 1.4%. Furthermore, in April the run rate of inflation broke below the 0.2% WoW mark, signalling declining headline inflation driven by weakening demand. Second, the contraction in real wages reached -9...

  • 3
    APR15
    Russia: International reserves increase USD 7.9bn to USD 360.8bn as of 27 March

    According to Reuters, the CBR attributed its decent international reserves bounce to a favorable mark-to-market effect and a positive balance of FX flows with banks. Indeed, DXY weakened near 0.6% between 20 and 27 March (the reporting dates for international reserve data); however, this is too small to explain the increase in reserves on its own. Meanwhile, we highlight that the volume of the CBR’s FX repo had actually increased USD 935mn for the said period, but at the same time there was USD 4...

  • 20
    MAR15
    Russia Output & Demand – February

    This morning we published, Russia Output & Demand – February; recession deepens, disinflation to strengthen. We present extracts from the front page below. The recessionary dynamics deepened and broadened into February with domestic demand continuing to plummet while the supportive ...

  • 6
    MAR15
    Russian Oils – wholesale gasoline prices rose 8-15% over the last three weeks

    ... market premium for oil products (namely, gasoline) to move from zero to negative territory, it could make exports a more attractive alternative, unless domestic retail and wholesale prices for motor fuel rise. It is important to mention that gasoline in Russia is considered a socially important good. Therefore, retail gasoline prices do not move freely and reflect international price dynamics. We have said on a number of occasions that the tax manoeuvre, introduced on 1 January 2015, might have unpredictable ...

  • 24
    FEB15
    Credit watch – Moody's downgrades Russia to Ba1 – retains negative outlook

    Moody's announced late on Friday evening that it was downgrading Russia’s government bond and local currency ratings one notch to Ba1, from Baa3, and retaining the negative outlook. The rationale behind the downgrade was threefold: i) weakening expectations of Russia's economic strength and growth prospects; ii) ...

  • 27
    JAN15
    Credit watch: S&P downgrades Russia to 'BB+'

    S&P announced on Monday evening that it had lowered Russia's sovereign credit rating below investment grade (to BB+ from BBB-) and retained its negative outlook. The agency stressed reduced monetary policy flexibility and the weakening growth outlook as the main rationale behind the downgrade. S&P thus ...

  • 19
    JAN15
    Credit watch – Moody's downgrades Russia to 'Baa3'

    Moody's announced on Friday evening that it was downgrading Russia’s government bond rating to Baa3 from Baa2 and placing the rating on review for further downgrade. The agency pointed to the sharp declines in the oil price and the rouble and the consequent deterioration in the country's already subdued growth ...

  • 12
    JAN15
    Credit watch – Fitch downgrades Russia to 'BBB-' – retains negative outlook

    Fitch announced on Friday evening that it was downgrading the Russian Federation sovereign ratings to 'BBB-', from 'BBB', and retaining a negative outlook. The agency noted the sharp declines in the oil price and the rouble, chronic exchange rate volatility, a steep rise in interest rates, stress in the banking ...

  • 17
    NOV14
    Russian Economy Monthly November; financial crisis déjà vu

    This morning we have published Russian Economy Monthly November; financial crisis déjà vu. Excerpts from the front page are given below. Autumn did not bring respite for the Russian economy with the external environment refreshing memories of the ’08–09 crisis when the country ...

  • 29
    OCT14
    World Bank Doing Business 2015: Russia moves from 92nd to 62nd position

    The World Bank has released its 2015 Ease of Doing Business rankings. Compared to last year, Russia moved from 92nd position to 62nd, but most of the improvement comes on the back of changes to the ranking's methodology. Starting this year, the Doing Business report has extended its coverage to include the second largest business city in economies ...

  • 20
    OCT14
    Moody's, as expected, downgraded Russia from Baa1 to Baa2

    Late on Friday, Moody's downgraded Russia’s sovereign rating from Baa1 to Baa2 with a 'Negative' outlook. Among the key factors, the rating agency mentioned the subdued mid-term economy growth prospects amid elevated geopolitical risks (meaning the lack of access to international capital ...

  • 6
    OCT14
    Russia Early Indicators - September; same morass

    On Friday, we published our regular Russia Early Indicators, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for September. We provide key extracts from the report below. Autumn began with muted colours. Although the ‘cash-for-clunkers’ programme and the better ...

  • 29
    SEP14
    Macro week ahead – EU to review sanctions on Russia

    This week, the key news in Russia is the submission to the State Duma of the draft federal budget for 2015-17. The expenditures breakdown of GDP in 2Q14 and the weekly CPI report for the final week of September are also to be published in Russia. Elsewhere, in CEMEEA we await the ...

  • 20
    AUG14
    Russia Output & Demand – July; local demand grinds to a halt

    Yesterday, Rosstat released its economic statistics for July. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9% (vs. 4.9% in June and 5.0% BBG); and SA UR – at 5.1% for the second consecutive month; Fixed capital investments: -2.0% YoY (vs. +0.5% and -1.0%); Retail sales: +1.1 % YoY (vs. +0.7% and +0.9%); Construction: -4.6% YoY (vs. +1.2% the previous month); New houses: +38.5% YoY (vs. +35.3% the previous month); Real wages: +1.8% YoY (vs. +2.1% (revised up from 1.7%) and +1.7%); Agriculture: +8.5%...

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