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Russia

  • 17
    NOV14
    Russian Economy Monthly November; financial crisis déjà vu

    This morning we have published Russian Economy Monthly November; financial crisis déjà vu. Excerpts from the front page are given below. Autumn did not bring respite for the Russian economy with the external environment refreshing memories of the ’08–09 crisis when the country ...

  • 29
    OCT14
    World Bank Doing Business 2015: Russia moves from 92nd to 62nd position

    The World Bank has released its 2015 Ease of Doing Business rankings. Compared to last year, Russia moved from 92nd position to 62nd, but most of the improvement comes on the back of changes to the ranking's methodology. Starting this year, the Doing Business report has extended its coverage to include the second largest business city in economies ...

  • 20
    OCT14
    Moody's, as expected, downgraded Russia from Baa1 to Baa2

    Late on Friday, Moody's downgraded Russia’s sovereign rating from Baa1 to Baa2 with a 'Negative' outlook. Among the key factors, the rating agency mentioned the subdued mid-term economy growth prospects amid elevated geopolitical risks (meaning the lack of access to international capital ...

  • 6
    OCT14
    Russia Early Indicators - September; same morass

    On Friday, we published our regular Russia Early Indicators, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for September. We provide key extracts from the report below. Autumn began with muted colours. Although the ‘cash-for-clunkers’ programme and the better ...

  • 29
    SEP14
    Macro week ahead – EU to review sanctions on Russia

    This week, the key news in Russia is the submission to the State Duma of the draft federal budget for 2015-17. The expenditures breakdown of GDP in 2Q14 and the weekly CPI report for the final week of September are also to be published in Russia. Elsewhere, in CEMEEA we await the ...

  • 20
    AUG14
    Russia Output & Demand – July; local demand grinds to a halt

    Yesterday, Rosstat released its economic statistics for July. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9% (vs. 4.9% in June and 5.0% BBG); and SA UR – at 5.1% for the second consecutive month; Fixed capital investments: -2.0% YoY (vs. +0.5% and -1.0%); Retail sales: +1.1 % YoY (vs. +0.7% and +0.9%); Construction: -4.6% YoY (vs. +1.2% the previous month); New houses: +38.5% YoY (vs. +35.3% the previous month); Real wages: +1.8% YoY (vs. +2.1% (revised up from 1.7%) and +1.7%); Agriculture: +8.5%...

  • 4
    AUG14
    Macro week ahead – inflation in Russia moderates, early indicators point downwards

    This week is relatively light on market-moving data releases across our CEEMEA universe, with the CPI report from Russia taking centre stage. Rosstat is to release its July inflation numbers early this week, with the headline number expected at 7.5% YoY (its first decline since the start of the year). The slower indexation of regulated tariffs this year was the ...

  • 4
    AUG14
    Russian Oils – sanctions are only mildly negative for Russia’s oil production outlook

    According to Vedomosti, the sanctions imposed by the US and EU might negatively affect oil production in Russia. On 29 July, the EU issued a statement that the export of oil equipment to Russian would now require advance approval. Similar sanctions were imposed by the US. There are a number of onshore technologies that Russian oil companies use widely ...

  • 16
    JUL14
    European Council – to consider additional sanctions for Russia today

    Today, the European Council is to consider the matter of introducing additional economic sanctions against Russia in light of the ongoing (and recently escalating) military standoff in eastern Ukraine. Yesterday, ITAR-TASS reported that nine countries (including Germany, France and Italy) were against such action, which would require consensus among EU members ...

  • 15
    JUL14
    Oils – potential tax manoeuvre might decrease the number of refineries in Russia

    ... the Ministry of Energy recently reported that the potential tax manoeuvre might mean that four of Rosneft’s refineries (Komsomolsky, Ryazansky, Saratovsky and Achinsky) as well as Surgutneftegas’ Kirishi become loss-making . As detailed in our Russian Oils: Tax manoeuvre — Snatch, Turkish and Tommy, of 30 June, in refining, the growth in crude netback would mean more expensive feedstock for domestic refineries. However, assuming a netback pricing mechanism, the profitability of upgraded refineries ...

  • 4
    JUL14
    Russia Early Indicators – June

    Yesterday, we published our regular Russia Early Indicators report, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for the first summer month of 2014. We provide key extracts from the report below. At the beginning of summer, the sun seemed to be shining on the ...

  • 25
    JUN14
    Russian Equities Strategy - Through a glass darkly

    Yesterday, we published Russian Equities Strategy - Through a glass darkly. Excerpts from this report are given below. The start of 2014 was a rollercoaster ride for the Russian stock market, as the EM-led slide was followed by a geopolitical shock from Ukraine. As the risks ...

  • 8
    MAY14
    Russia Early Indicators – April

    The start of 2Q14 saw more of the same trends observed in the previous quarters – weakening domestic and export demand, deteriorating business sentiment and elevated inflationary pressure. Thus, Russia is slipping into technical recession, but on the positive side this process seems slow and gradual rather than massive and sharp. Also of note, although FX pass-through is yet to push core inflation higher in 2Q14, cost inflation has already started ...

  • 5
    MAY14
    Russian Economy Monthly - May

    Spring got underway with rising geopolitical tensions propagating into an uncertainty shock and the first damage assessment reveals that the sectors of the Russian economy have each been unhappy in their own way. Households brought forward discretionary spending in anticipation of a spike in import prices and found refuge for their savings in cash FX and real estate. Corporates slashed capex outlays and ...

  • 28
    APR14
    Rating downgrade – S&P lowers Russia to BBB- – leaves negative outlook

    On Friday, S&P cut its foreign currency rating on Russia to BBB- from BBB due to rising risks to the country’s growth prospects on large capital outflows in 1Q14 and the narrower possibility for external financing. It kept the rating outlook as negative, citing risks to Russia's creditworthiness from ...

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