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  • 11
    OPEC crude production still under 30mmb/d

    OPEC crude production in January remained in line with December production levels and below 30.0mmb/d according to the technical press (Figure 1). Libyan production is seen to have doubled, to around 500kb/d, following the re-start of the 350kb/d El Sharara ...

  • 11
    OPEC numbers confirm Saudi ramp up; EIA now sees markets balanced

    OPEC published its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) yesterday, with few changes to the forecast figures. Based on the MOMR supply/demand data, we estimate a net supply surplus of 0.4mmb/d in 2013 and 0.6mmb/d in 2014 (both unchanged from last month’s ...

  • 9
    OPEC production fell in June

    OPEC production is seen to have dropped MoM in June, according to estimates by the technical press, with Libyan production in particular weaker MoM. Argus and MEES put June OPEC production down 340kb/d and 370kb/d MoM, respectively. Libyan production ...

  • 3
    OPEC rollover

    In what turned out to be a very short meeting, OPEC rolled over its current 30mmb/d target, as we expected, even though it noted that “the second half of the year could see a further easing in fundamentals, despite seasonally higher demand.” OPEC also set its next meeting for 4 December, which ...

  • 30
    OPEC meeting preview

    OPEC meets in Vienna tomorrow for its 163rd ordinary meeting. Almost all commentators, including ourselves, expect a publicly non-contentious meeting with a rollover of the existing 30mmb/d target that has now been in place since December 2011. In the ...

  • 14
    OPEC crude production picking up

    OPEC crude production picked up in April 0.3mmb/d MoM according to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), which is based on secondary sources. That was largely down to production hikes by Saudi Arabia ...

  • 13
    EIA STEO and OPEC MOMR: Deficit versus Surplus

    The EIA published its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO has a small deficit for 2013 (-0.3mmb/d) but a small surplus in 2014 (0.2mmb/d), based on the EIA’s estimate for OPEC crude oil production in 2013 of 30.3mmb/d and 30.5mmb/d in 2014. However, assuming February’s OPEC production of 30.0mmb/d is held prospectively, then that market undersupply expands to 0.6mmb/d. There were few notable changes in the EIA’s forecasts ...

  • 13
    EIA STEO and OPEC MOMR: Differing views

    The EIA published its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO has a small deficit for 2012 and also for 2013 (both -0.2mmb/d), based on the EIA’s estimate for OPEC production in 2013 of 30.6mmb/d. However, assuming January OPEC production of 30.1mmb/d is held prospectively, then that market undersupply expands to 0.7mmb/d. There were few notable changes in the EIA’s forecasts from January’s STEO. Global ...

  • 12
    Call on OPEC

    OPEC meets today and looks likely to roll-over its current production target. That target was set at 30mmb/d last December and contains no production split by member. OPEC and the EIA both published their short-term forecast updates yesterday and the ...

  • 5
    OPEC meeting heads-up

    OPEC set a collective production target of 30mmb/d last December which was seen as the level likely to match the call on OPEC crude through 2012 at that time. As it turns out, the call on OPEC crude in 2012 looks likely to come in almost exactly in line ...

  • 14
    IEA Data: call on OPEC cut, inventory up

    The IEA’s November report sees cuts to its demand growth forecast and confirms a substantial QoQ pick-up in non-OPEC production, resulting in a cut in the sequential call on OPEC crude for 4Q12 of 0.9mmb/d to 30.0mmb/d, well below current OPEC crude production of 31.2mmb/d. Moreover, OECD oil inventories, which had initially been reported as falling in August have ...

  • 7
    EIA cuts 2013 supply surplus by cutting OPEC production forecast

    ... its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday, maintaining a supply surplus for 2012 at 0.05mmb/d, fractionally down from 0.09mmb/d in the prior month. Global demand in 2012 was revised marginally lower to 89.05mmb/d, down 0.04 mmb/d MoM, whilst non-OPEC production was cut 0.12mmb/d MoM. A lift in the EIA’s projected 2012 OPEC production helped keep supply in surplus. The more significant adjustments came in the 2013 forecasts, where last month’s 0.6mmb/d supply surplus was cut to just 0.13mmb/d....

  • 11
    OPEC increases supply

    Estimates for OPEC production in March are trickling in and they show that OPEC crude production is continuing to rise MoM, despite concerns over Iran, and in line with our expectations (see Increasing Oil Price Forecast – But Only to USD 105/bbl of 20 March). The ...

  • 17
    OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

    OPEC published its first Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the year yesterday. There were only very minor adjustments to the previous forecast. OPEC puts the call on its crude for 2012 at 30.1mmbd, flat on 2011 and about 0.1mmbd higher than its last ...

  • 7
    Energy Price Update – Forecasts unchanged

    Brent traded within a narrow range in January despite market concerns about over-supply. In fact, the initial evidence is that the anticipated call on OPEC crude in 2014 is being increased on raised demand estimates, while OPEC output remains at or below 30mmb/d. Brent averaged USD 107.24/bbl for the quarter, slightly ahead of our USD 105/bbl forecast. We make no changes to our current forecasts, apart ...

  • 4
    Keystone XL review progresses

    ... over the supply/demand balance in 2014 given growing tight oil production from North America (though that is off to a slower-than-expected start; see Morning Comment of 30 January), an apparent slowdown in emerging market growth, and the ability of OPEC to manage output, if necessary, to balance the market. Initial estimates for January put OPEC crude production at 29.9mmb/d, the lowest since June 2011, and not much higher than the ‘call on OPEC crude’ for 2014.

  • 28
    Final China oil data for 2013; pick-up in net speculative positions in Brent

    ... August. The comparatively low number of bullish positions in Brent might reflect market concerns over areas such as growing tight oil production from North America, question marks over the scale of growth of the Chinese economy/demand and the ability of OPEC to curb output, if necessary, to balance the market. Total Open Interest for futures and options rose 1.2% WoW. Over the same period, Brent was marginally up USD 0.18/bbl WoW to USD 106.57/bbl. On the other side of the Atlantic, net managed money ...

  • 12
    IEA Data - Nothing to threaten Brent price, yet

    While the IEA’s latest forecast continues to imply a softening in supply/demand balances for 1Q14, it has raised its demand forecasts again. Product inventories look particularly tight, despite apparent excess oil supply of 0.4mmb/d for 2013, and OPEC production fell for the fourth month running. In our view, that combination, together with the current robustness in Brent, suggests that a surge in OPEC production might be a necessary precursor to a more sustained fall in the Brent price towards ...

  • 10
    Jump in Chinese crude imports

    ... taking speculative net longs to a 6-week high. WTI closed the week ended 3 December higher, up USD 2.36/bbl WoW to USD 96.04/bbl, taking the discount to Brent to USD 16.58/bbl. The WTI discount to Brent has since narrowed to around the USD 12/bbl mark. OPEC, which in its recent meeting rolled over its 30mmb/d production target (see Morning Comment of 6 December) is due to publish its Monthly Oil Market report today. The EIA is also scheduled to release its Short-Term Energy Outlook today while the IEA ...

  • 13
    IEA September OMR – Oil market tightness set to ease into 4Q13

    There were minor changes in the IEA’s forecasts in its September Oil Market Report, the most notable of which was a 0.2mmb/d cut in the call on OPEC crude for 2014. The report confirms a MoM reduction in OPEC output following the collapse in Libyan production. However, it also notes that Saudi Arabian production has risen to near-record levels. While oil markets are experiencing a tight 3Q13,...

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