Contact Information
- Subscribe
- Ask a question
Tags's search
OPEC
-
14MAY13
OPEC crude production picking up
OPEC crude production picked up in April 0.3mmb/d MoM according to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), which is based on secondary sources. That was largely down to production hikes by Saudi Arabia and...
-
13MAR13
EIA STEO and OPEC MOMR: Deficit versus Surplus
The EIA published its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO has a small deficit for 2013 (-0.3mmb/d) but a small surplus in 2014 (0.2mmb/d), based on the EIA’s estimate for OPEC crude oil production in 2013 of 30.3mmb/d and 30.5mmb/d in 2014. However, assuming February’s OPEC production of 30.0mmb/d is held prospectively, then that market undersupply expands to 0.6mmb/d. There were few notable changes in the EIA’s forecasts...
-
13FEB13
EIA STEO and OPEC MOMR: Differing views
The EIA published its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO has a small deficit for 2012 and also for 2013 (both -0.2mmb/d), based on the EIA’s estimate for OPEC production in 2013 of 30.6mmb/d. However, assuming January OPEC production of 30.1mmb/d is held prospectively, then that market undersupply expands to 0.7mmb/d. There were few notable changes in the EIA’s forecasts from January’s STEO. Global demand...
-
12DEC12
Call on OPEC
OPEC meets today and looks likely to roll-over its current production target. That target was set at 30mmb/d last December and contains no production split by member. OPEC and the EIA both published their short-term forecast updates yesterday and the...
-
5DEC12
OPEC meeting heads-up
OPEC set a collective production target of 30mmb/d last December which was seen as the level likely to match the call on OPEC crude through 2012 at that time. As it turns out, the call on OPEC crude in 2012 looks likely to come in almost exactly in line...
-
14NOV12
IEA Data: call on OPEC cut, inventory up
The IEA’s November report sees cuts to its demand growth forecast and confirms a substantial QoQ pick-up in non-OPEC production, resulting in a cut in the sequential call on OPEC crude for 4Q12 of 0.9mmb/d to 30.0mmb/d, well below current OPEC crude production of 31.2mmb/d. Moreover, OECD oil inventories, which had initially been reported as falling in August have...
-
7NOV12
EIA cuts 2013 supply surplus by cutting OPEC production forecast
... its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday, maintaining a supply surplus for 2012 at 0.05mmb/d, fractionally down from 0.09mmb/d in the prior month. Global demand in 2012 was revised marginally lower to 89.05mmb/d, down 0.04 mmb/d MoM, whilst non-OPEC production was cut 0.12mmb/d MoM. A lift in the EIA’s projected 2012 OPEC production helped keep supply in surplus. The more significant adjustments came in the 2013 forecasts, where last month’s 0.6mmb/d supply surplus was cut to just 0.13mmb/d...
-
11APR12
OPEC increases supply
Estimates for OPEC production in March are trickling in and they show that OPEC crude production is continuing to rise MoM, despite concerns over Iran, and in line with our expectations (see Increasing Oil Price Forecast – But Only to USD 105/bbl of 20 March). The...
-
17JAN12
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
OPEC published its first Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the year yesterday. There were only very minor adjustments to the previous forecast. OPEC puts the call on its crude for 2012 at 30.1mmbd, flat on 2011 and about 0.1mmbd higher than its last...
-
7MAY13
FY13 Brent forecast unchanged at USD 106/bbl
... global economic news and continued pressure in other commodity markets as well as a drop in managed money net longs in Brent. The supply/demand data continues to suggest that the oil market remains noticeably over-supplied and initial estimates of OPEC production indicate that April production increased MoM, consistent with our expectations and likely to exacerbate the pressure on the Brent price, in our view. YTD, Brent has averaged USD 110/bbl and our unchanged USD 106/bbl forecast implies an...
-
18APR13
EIA data – Market unmoved by unexpected crude inventory draw
... broader commodity sell-off, the key context for falling oil prices is the marked over-supply to the market that has been in place since 2012, we believe. We see potential for the Brent price to dip well into the USD 90s or lower, though we do expect OPEC to act to defend Brent at around the USD 100/bbl mark by withdrawing supply from the market.
-
12APR13
IEA Data - April report
... (OMR), the IEA has global oil demand in 2013 growing 795kb/d (0.9%) YoY to 90.6mmb/d, a slight reduction to the previous OMR’s 820kb/d YoY growth estimate but leaving the 2013 demand estimate unchanged. The IEA notes several ‘bright spots’ for non-OPEC supply in 2013; namely the reported restart of South Sudan production and the restarts of Elgin/Franklin in the North Sea, Peng Lai in China and Frade in Brazil. The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply to grow by over 1mmb/d in 2Q13 and 3Q13. Even so,...
-
4APR13
Energy prices update
... updated Brent forecast and amending our WTI forecast for the actual 1Q13 outcome, together with the change in shape of the Brent-WTI futures spread. The supply/demand data continues to suggest that the market is significantly oversupplied and with OPEC production beginning to pick up again, following the sharp drop in 4Q12. In our assessment, the immediate outlook is for the level of over-supply to increase, given seasonal demand weakness, with OPEC production most likely flat to up and with a...
-
28MAR13
EIA data – demand jumps
... following the persistent slide from the near USD 120/bbl levels of mid-February . However, we think production data for March will continue to indicate that significant over-supply to the market persists, and it might also show an MoM increase in OPEC production. Assuming that is the case, we would continue to expect that the risk to oil prices lies to the downside. The US EIA data recorded a 3.3mmbbl build in crude inventory (vs. +1.3mmbbl expected), a 4.5mmbbl draw in distillate (vs. -0.9mmbbl...
-
14MAR13
EIA data – Sharp rise in US production
... Cushing, Oklahoma, the physical crude’s pricing point, since May 2011. That meant the crude differential narrowed to USD 16/bbl having been as wide as USD 23/bbl earlier in the year. The IEA published its monthly Oil Market Report yesterday. It had OPEC production rising in February to 30.49mmb/d and cut its ‘call on OPEC crude’ for 2013 to 29.7mmb/d. Assuming OPEC production levels are maintained for the remainder of the year, that would imply a market over-supply of 0.8mmb/d for 2013, a 60% increase...
-
7MAR13
EIA data – Stronger than expected rise in crude oil inventory
... oil products’ category crashed, down 0.5mmb/d (-14.4%) WoW. On a 52-week YoY average basis, all product demand improved to -0.4%, from -0.6% last week. Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, a major oil producing nation (2.5mmb/d in 2012 per the IEA), OPEC member and holder of the world’s largest proven reserves (according to BP), has passed away. Oil markets appear to have reacted to the news, with Brent trading higher, initially, before reversing the gains. In our view, it is as yet unclear where...
-
1MAR13
Oil price forecast increase - Brent forecast raised to USD 105/bbl
... lying to the downside. Brent has averaged USD 114/bbl YTD, which already sets a reasonable platform for a full-year average above our current USD 95/bbl FY13 forecast. Oil markets transitioned to 2013 tighter than we expected, mainly as a result of OPEC production cuts, driven principally by a sharp Saudi production drop. We believe that reflected a more pro-active approach to supply management on the part of Saudi Arabia than we had expected, given oil prices well above Saudi Arabia’s USD 100/bbl...
-
22FEB13
EIA data – Crude oil inventory reaches seven-month high
... programme, could end earlier than expected and even possible positive developments on Iran. None of these are particularly convincing, in our view. However, while the market appears tighter than previously thought, it is oversupplied, even at current low OPEC production levels. Should OPEC production stabilise, or even pick up prospectively into seasonally weaker second quarter demand, we would expect that to result in further pressure on current price levels.
-
20FEB13
What is Saudi Arabia doing?
... and ultimately moderating the oil price. However, Saudi production began to ease off from mid-summer and fell sharply from October, despite Brent being above USD 100/bbl since mid-July. The drop in Saudi production has been instrumental in reducing OPEC output and, in our view, has made a significant contribution to tightening markets by more than seemed likely at the end of last year. That is probably also a significant factor behind the current strength in Brent, we expect. Saudi Arabia has explained...
-
19FEB13
Speculative positions in crude flattening
... problems maintaining the expanded capacity in service. That could also account for the earlier flattening off in net speculative positions seen on the CFTC over the last four weeks as compared with ICE. Recently updated forecasts from the IEA, EIA and OPEC tend to show oil supply/demand balances that have turned out to be tighter than previously expected. Nevertheless, markets continue to appear to be in substantial surplus, a position that is likely to become more extreme as we approach the second...
