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  • 14
    Sharp drop in OECD oil inventory

    OECD commercial oil inventory dropped to its lowest level since 2008 after a stronger than usual 56.8mmbbl stock draw in December, according to yesterday’s IEA Oil Market Report (OMR), and saw inventory levels more than 100mmbbl below the seasonal average....

  • 16
    Rouble slides amid stable oil

    ... of industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment. It is not clear whether the Chinese authorities will necessarily respond with fresh fiscal measures or an easier monetary stance in order to secure the 7.5% official GDP growth target. The OECD published its interim economic assessment yesterday and noted that global economic growth was continuing at a moderate pace, although it did warn that the economy is “expanding unevenly”. The OECD sees growth as being particularly weak in the ...

  • 14
    OPEC crude production picking up

    ..., which could prove significant ahead of its ordinary meeting scheduled for 31 May. The EIA’s STEO had global demand for 2013 marginally down to 89.9mmb/d, from 90.0mmb/d in the previous month’s forecast, with the drop in demand attributable to OECD demand. That, and a slightly higher forecast for non-OPEC supply, had the ‘call on OPEC crude’ 0.1mmb/d lower MoM. OPEC’s MOMR, however, had the ‘call on OPEC crude’ 0.1mmb/d higher MoM after leaving 2013 demand unchanged at 89.7mmb/d and ...

  • 12
    IEA Data - April report

    ... meet increased demand as the refinery turnaround season ends. Iraqi production is also likely to pick up on the resumption of operations at the Majnoon oilfield in the beginning of May, with a 100kb/d initial production target. A 32.9mmbbl draw in OECD oil inventory in February was in line with the historical average, meaning inventory levels remained above the seasonal average, at 2,664mmbbl. January’s stock build was revised upwards. However, preliminary data for March suggests that oil inventory ...

  • 13
    EIA STEO and OPEC MOMR: Deficit versus Surplus

    ... OPEC production of 30.0mmb/d is held prospectively, then that market undersupply expands to 0.6mmb/d. There were few notable changes in the EIA’s forecasts from the previous month’s STEO. For 2013, global demand has been cut 0.1mmb/d, due to lower OECD demand estimates, to 90.1mmb/d, while a similar cut for 2014 results in average global demand of 91.5mmb/d. Non-OPEC production was raised 0.1mmb/d. The EIA had recently pushed back its anticipated restart of South Sudan production to the second ...

  • 21
    IEA Data - January Report

    ... for 2012 and 2013 were raised 0.1mmb/d. The ‘call on OPEC crude’ was therefore raised a net 0.1mmb/d in both years, to 30.3mmb/d for 2012 and 30.0mmb/d for 2013, falling 0.3mmb/d YoY. Two consecutive months of inventory draws have lowered total OECD inventory in November, almost in line with the seasonal average. Preliminary data for December indicates another inventory draw. However, considering the weakness in OECD demand, inventory levels, and particularly crude inventory, appear comfortable....

  • 7
    EIA data – hit by a hurricane

    ... production amounting to some 13mmbbl, we estimate or about 4 hours of global daily liquids production. Nevertheless, September is statistically the most active month for storms, so there remains the potential for more hurricane disruption at a time when OECD production maintenance is high. As that production returns, markets are likely to look even more over-supplied. Meanwhile, we believe the US has made its opposition to any precipitate Israeli action against Iran clear and with the cancellation of ...

  • 13
    IEA August Report

    ... demand forecasts for 2012 and 2013: down 0.3mmb/d and 0.4mmb/d respectively to 89.6mmb/ and 90.5mmb/d. These were a result of baseline revisions as well as weaker economic growth assumptions. Non-OPEC crude supply was flat MoM after a 0.2mmb/d rise in OECD production net off against a 0.1mmb/d fall in Non-OECD production and an equivalent drop in biofuels supply. With no change in the outlook for OPEC NGLs, that left the fall in demand to filter through as a reduction in the call on OPEC crude for ...

  • 1
    Missing barrels

    ... according to our calculations global inventory has built on average 1.7mmb/d or just over 300mmbbl for 1H12. However, at present it is just about possible to account for around 80% of that, leaving some 60mmbl unaccounted for, equivalent to over 300kb/d. OECD inventory, which is currently available to May, shows a total build in crude of around 89mmbbl while total hydrocarbon inventory has risen 71mmbbl. China does not publish oil demand or inventory data, but the unusually wide discrepancy between the ...

  • 22
    Japanese LNG demand tightening European gas supply

    ... USD 632/kcm (USD 17.91/mmbtu) it is bid at in Asia. European LNG imports weakened in the second half of last year and are down 29% YoY for the year to February, equivalent to 5bcm. Overall gas demand in Europe dropped sharply in 2011, falling 9% for OECD Europe to 509bcm, largely due to the warmer winter but also because of weak industrial conditions. For the year to February, gas demand is up 0.8% YoY or by 1bcm. OECD European production has increased 0.6bcm YoY for the year to February but mainly ...

  • 14
    IEA May OMR

    ... that OPEC crude production increased 0.4mmb/d MoM. That was the fourth MoM increase in a row and took production to 31.9mmb/d, outpacing the growth in the call on OPEC crude. Current production stands 1.6mmb/d above the call on OPEC crude for 2012. OECD oil inventory rose 13.5mmbbl in March, in contrast to the typical 10.2mmbl draw. That took inventory to 2,649mmbbl, above the five-year average for the first time since May 2011. Days forward cover (DFC) increased to 60.3 days, 3.0 days above the ...

  • 13
    IEA April OMR

    ... crude was left unchanged at 30.1mmb/d. However, OPEC production in March increased a further 0.1mmb/d to 31.4mmb/d leaving the market oversupplied by well over 1mmb/d prospectively. Were OPEC production to remain flat at March levels, we calculate that OECD days forward cover could end the year at almost 62 days, the highest since 2Q95 and probably not consistent with Brent above USD 100/bbl. We view this data set as further confirmation that the market is transitioning from a two-year period of under-supply ...

  • 20
    Increasing oil price forecast – but only to USD 105/bbl

    ... crude production, the market is transitioning from two years of under-supply to a substantial over-supply position of some 1.3mmb/d for 2012. While current inventory levels are comparatively low, reflecting the prior undersupply, we calculate that OECD days forward cover could rise to 62 by year end, the highest since 2Q95 and not consistent with even USD 100/bbl Brent, given the current level of over-supply. We believe that there are three principal concerns around Iran: that it will attempt ...

  • 5
    Yuri Soloviev: Bulgaria Is Perfect for Starting Operations in the Balkans

    ... think Russia will first want to get closer to the former Soviet Union countries. You know there is a customs union between Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, and Ukraine is thinking about joining or not joining. As a country, Russia would like to join the OECD, and I think that after the entry into the WTO a main task for the Russian government will definitely be the achieving of OECD membership. And we would like to linked much closer with the European Union. This goes all the way from visa restrictions ...

  • 19
    IEA cuts demand forecast in it’s january report

    ... current 2012 forecast puts the call on OPEC crude at 30.0mmbd while it pegged OPEC crude production in December at 30.9mmbd, with indications that OPEC supply is increasing in January. On current IEA projections and assuming OPEC production remains flat, OECD days forward cover (DFC) could reach 61.5 days by the end of 2012, we calculate, higher even than 1H09. With demand 1.1mmbd lower, OECD DFC could reach 66 days. We do not believe that the level of DFC would be consistent with USD 100+/bbl oil.

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