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  • 22
    IEA data – OECD demand upgraded

    In its latest forecast, the IEA has upgraded global demand 0.1mmb/d for 2014 to 92.5mmb/d, on the back of stronger OECD demand, representing YoY growth of 1.3mmb/d (+1.4%). OECD oil inventory levels dropped sharply in November, down 53.6mmbbl MoM for the steepest monthly decline ...

  • 12
    IEA Data - Nothing to threaten Brent price, yet

    While the IEA’s latest forecast continues to imply a softening in supply/demand balances for 1Q14, it has raised its demand forecasts again. Product inventories look particularly tight, despite apparent excess oil supply of 0.4mmb/d for 2013, and OPEC production ...

  • 13
    IEA September OMR – Oil market tightness set to ease into 4Q13

    There were minor changes in the IEA’s forecasts in its September Oil Market Report, the most notable of which was a 0.2mmb/d cut in the call on OPEC crude for 2014. The report confirms a MoM reduction in OPEC output following the collapse in Libyan production. However, it also notes ...

  • 12
    IEA Data - April report

    In its April Oil Market Report (OMR), the IEA has global oil demand in 2013 growing 795kb/d (0.9%) YoY to 90.6mmb/d, a slight reduction to the previous OMR’s 820kb/d YoY growth estimate but leaving the 2013 demand estimate unchanged. The IEA notes several ‘bright spots’ for non-OPEC supply ...

  • 21
    IEA Data - January Report

    In its January Oil Market Report, the IEA increased its 2012 global oil demand estimate to 89.8mmbbl/d and its 2013 forecast to 90.8mmb/d, both up 0.2mmbbl/d from the December report. The increments come on the back of stronger than expected 4Q12 data, as demand for the quarter was hiked ...

  • 11
    IEA special report on Iraq

    The IEA published its Iraq Energy Outlook special report yesterday, with projections to 2035. Under the 'Central Scenario', the key highlights for the world’s third largest oil exporter are: Production doubles to 6.1mmb/d by 2020 and reaches 8.3mmb/d by ...

  • 12
    EIA forecasts 2012 oil deficit; IEA reports today

    Yesterday, OPEC published its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) and the EIA published its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The IEA, which is generally regarded as the most authoritative of the major public supply/demand forecasters, publishes its Oil Market Report today. There was little change to OPEC’s projections which continue to suggest that oil markets will be in significant ...

  • 13
    Ежемесячный отчет IEAснижение спроса на нефть ОПЕК

    Управление энергетической информации Минэнерго США (IEA) опубликовало ежемесячный обзор ситуации на рынке нефти, в рамках которого прогноз мирового спроса на нефть в 2012 и 2013 г. понижен на 0.3 и 0....

  • 13
    IEA August Report

    The IEA published its August Oil Market Report with revisions for its global oil demand forecasts for 2012 and 2013: down 0.3mmb/d and 0.4mmb/d respectively to 89.6mmb/ and 90.5mmb/d. These were a result of baseline revisions as well as weaker economic growth ...

  • 13
    IEA July Report – first look at 2013

    The IEA has published its first projections for 2013 in its July Oil Market Report. This envisions a modest acceleration in global liquids demand growth to 1.0mmb/d, entirely offset by rising non-OPEC liquids and OPEC NGL production, leaving the call on OPEC ...

  • 8
    IEA ‘Golden Rules’ report confirms EU gas import growth

    The IEA recently published a special report on unconventional gas, ‘Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas’, which recommends principles that regulators and companies should adopt to enable full development of unconventional gas to take place. From the ...

  • 14
    IEA May OMR

    In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA has increased its 2012 global growth forecast 0.1mmb/d to 90.0mmb/d; YoY demand growth is unchanged at 0.8mmb/d. The non-OPEC supply growth forecast has been reduced 0.1mmb/d, but non-OPEC supply is still expected to grow 0.6mmb/d to 53.3mmb/d. The ...

  • 13
    IEA April OMR

    In the April edition of its Oil Market Report, the IEA left its 2012 forecasts for demand, non-OPEC liquid supply and OPEC NGLs unchanged. As a result, the call on OPEC crude was left unchanged at 30.1mmb/d. However, OPEC production in March increased a further 0.1mmb/d to 31.4mmb/d leaving the market ...

  • 19
    IEA cuts demand forecast in it’s january report

    In its first report of 2012, the IEA cut its 2012 oil demand forecast 0.2mmbd to 1.1mmbd. The principal reason for the cut was a YoY drop in 4Q11 demand, the first YoY quarterly drop in demand since the tail-end of the credit crunch. The IEA bases its demand forecast on IMF growth projections,...

  • 14
    Sharp drop in OECD oil inventory

    OECD commercial oil inventory dropped to its lowest level since 2008 after a stronger than usual 56.8mmbbl stock draw in December, according to yesterday’s IEA Oil Market Report (OMR), and saw inventory levels more than 100mmbbl below the seasonal average. It also makes the draw in 4Q13 the steepest quarterly decline since 1999, while preliminary data points towards a smaller than usual inventory build in ...

  • 24
    EIA data – Winter warmer

    ... expectations). Total US oil inventory has now fallen to the bottom of the seasonal range, having been at the top for much of the year before. Preliminary data implies OECD oil stocks at the end of 2013 dropped below the bottom of the seasonal range (see IEA Data – OECD demand upgraded, of 22 January) and this data set continues to suggest inventories are tight. We expect low oil inventories to be supportive for oil prices, in line with our view of a firmer start to the year for Brent. The US EIA data ...

  • 19
    EIA data – Demand spike

    In the US EIA data for the week to 13 December, implied all-product demand jumped 2.4mmb/d (+13.2%) WoW in what is one of the largest WoW movements on record, to reach a five-year high of 21.0mmb/d. Implied demand rose in every product category bar jet kerosene, which was flat WoW. Demand for gasoline, distillates and the ‘other oil products’ category, which combined comprise 84% of total demand, increased 0.7mmb/d (+8.0%), 0.8mmb/d (+23.8%) and 0.9mmb/d (+24.1%) WoW, respectively. Distillate and...

  • 10
    Jump in Chinese crude imports

    ....0mmb/d (+11%) MoM to 10.1mmb/d in November (-1% YoY), assuming domestic crude production remains at October’s production level. Implied demand under this methodology has averaged 9.9mmb/d YTD, up just 2% YoY, and half the 4% YoY growth forecast by the IEA for 2013. However, we believe 2012 was marked by significant stock building relative to 2013 which would drag the apparent YoY growth lower. Net managed money futures and options positions on the ICE in Brent, regarded as the most directionally driven ...

  • 9
    OPEC production fell in June

    ... inventory levels continue to build, we believe. While that holds true, we see the price risk as lying to the downside. The EIA publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlook today and OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market report is scheduled for publication tomorrow. The IEA, which is generally regarded as the most authoritative of the major public forecasters, is expected to release the July Oil Market Report on Thursday. That report will contain projection through to end-2014 . Net managed money futures and options ...

  • 13
    EIA data – Demand disappoints

    ... WoW to 7.2mmb/d. The growth rate since the beginning of the year implies full year average crude production at around 7.3mmb/d, or a 0.8mmb/d (+13%) YoY increase. That is in line with the EIA’s estimates per the latest Short Term Energy Outlook. The IEA published its June edition of the Oil Market Report (OMR) yesterday. It has revised its ‘call on OPEC crude’ in 2013 down 0.1mmb/d to 29.5mmb/d following downward adjustments to baseline non-OECD demand. However, OPEC crude production has risen ...

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