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  • 18
    Azeri natural gas to Europe gets go-ahead

    ... members of the Shah Deniz consortium (BP, SOCAR, Statoil, Total, NICO and TPAO) have, as widely expected, reached a final investment decision (FID) over the development of Shah Deniz Stage 2, which would ultimately see Azeri natural gas delivered to Europe. The project will involve the expansion of the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) in Azerbaijan and Georgia and the construction of the Trans Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP) across Turkey and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) through Greece, Albania ...

  • 2
    European Gas Market Outlook

    Despite significant reductions to our forecast for European gas demand, we also expect the supply of LNG to Europe to drop sharply and are increasing our estimate for the European call on Russian gas in 2013 by 16bcm to 160bcm. We expect future demand for Russian gas to be robust. Although we are cutting ...

  • 26
    Low European gas storage levels

    European gas storage levels have been building since the trough in April but remain significantly short of normal storage levels. Gas in storage crept above the 30bcm mark in June but is below the bottom of the seasonal range and nearly 30% below the ...

  • 3
    European gas: Unusually cold weather continues

    European hub gas prices climbed above the USD 400/kcm (USD 11.5/mmbtu) mark in late March, the highest since late 2008, before adjusting lower at the start of April on the switch to the May contract. The recent high European gas prices likely reflect ...

  • 27
    Now European forward gas starts to rally

    With potentially record breaking cold weather set to continue in Europe and storage levels drained, it is perhaps no wonder that month-ahead gas prices are starting to rise. Day-ahead prices have been strengthening since mid/late February and spiked in March where they have traded above our estimate for the raw oil-linked ...

  • 7
    European spot gas price rising

    European hub gas prices, especially those in the UK, have continued to rise quite sharply over the last couple of weeks with NBP now a whisker below the USD 400/kcm (USD 11.3/mmbtu) mark. As a result, the discount to our estimate for the generic oil-linked ...

  • 17
    European spot gas price increasing

    Spot gas prices have been rising. The US Henry Hub gas price is only just off its high for the year at USD 121/kcm (USD 3.42/mmbtu), up almost 80% from its late April low. Although somewhat less remarked on, European hub gas prices have also been rising. Since the dip to USD 292kcm (USD 8.27/mmbtu) toward the end of July, European prices have risen more than 20% to around USD 360/kcm (USD 10.2/mmbtu) before winter has even got properly started. Not only ...

  • 5
    European gas prices and the EU

    European spot gas prices have risen sharply since late July, increasing 17% to USD 339/kcm (USD 9.6/mmbtu). While that is still some 15% below reported boarder prices for oil-linked gas it is certainly closer than it has been for much of the summer. ...

  • 22
    Japanese LNG demand tightening European gas supply

    Although European spot gas prices have fallen 14% since the beginning of May to USD 297/kcm (USD 8.42/mmbtu) it is worth remembering that LNG markets are tightening quite sharply, so far as Europe is concerned. Japan’s last operating reactor was shut on 5 May ...

  • 25
    Shale gas is not about to transform the European gas market

    The collapse of US gas prices to less than USD 2/mmbtu (USD 71/kcm) and recent newspaper articles touting shale gas production in Europe and large scale export of US gas has increased concern that the pricing and sales volume of Russian gas to Europe are under renewed threat. They are not, in our view. European markets are currently challenging as a result of a lack of demand, not ...

  • 2
    Macro week ahead

    ... the end of 3Q14. At the same time, given tangible risks of deflation (and an entrenched period of below-target CPI growth) we might see more dovish rhetoric and even an extension of its policy guidance. In Russia, as opposed to deflation scenarios in Europe, inflation is gathering pace, fuelled by food shocks and the FX pass-through impact on core items. We expect a 0.9-1.0% MoM increase in CPI, implying 7.6-7.7% in YoY terms. Looking beyond May, sharp and persistent shocks on the pork/meat market ...

  • 12
    Trade surplus

    ... greatly based on a USD 2.4bn increase in exports (especially in oil and oil products as well as still strong gas exports), fully offsetting a simultaneous advance in imports (on machinery). Given that the abnormally warm November will likely contain Europe’s demand for Russian gas, we would treat October’s improvement in trade surplus as temporary, but contracted imports (according to preliminary non-CIS imports data) might help. Hence, we suggest that September’s tick up in trade surplus is ...

  • 16
    IP – growth ticked up to 0.3% YoY in September

    ... additional working day this year. Another argument for the temporary nature of the IP tick-up is that WDA YoY growth dipped below zero with a 0.1% drop, mainly owing to a faster decline in manufacturing (-1.3% vs. -0.4%). We believe that heavy demand from Europe for Russian gas will persist in the near term, underpinning IP growth amid bleak local demand and fragile emerging growth in metals. Hence, while acknowledging some downside risks, we retain our FY13 forecast of 0.6% YoY. As far as policy implications ...

  • 14
    Macro week ahead

    ... and the full-pack of economic statistics for September. We and consensus forecast no change in key policy rates today, while September’s statistics will likely show a technical recovery in investment activity growth. On the production front, strong European demand for gas as well as the positive calendar factor provide grounds for a recovery in IP growth, despite a slightly faster decline in rail cargo volumes and the fact that a rebound in electricity output can mainly be explained by the colder ...

  • 2
    GDP – estimate for 2Q13 by expenditures

    ... looking deeper into the details we would tend to treat it as a one-off . While imports decelerated owing to weaker local demand, exports benefited from the favourable base effect anda weather-related pickup in gas exports (the abnormally cold spring in Europe). We expect to see full-year real GDP growth at 1.7% YoY in 2013 as we still expect technical drivers (better harvest, beneficial base effect for investment activity, spike in Europe’s demand for Russian gas, stronger disinflation, etc.) to ...

  • 14
    Russia has largest shale oil resource

    ... was negligible outside North America. Since shale exploration outside North America remains in its infancy, the estimates in the EIA study are subject to significant revision. This is most evident in the equivalent estimates for shale gas potential in Europe between the 2011 study and the current study. For the EU countries and Norway, included in the 2011 survey, estimated total shale gas resources fell 29% to 11.3tcm (398tcf) from 15.9tcm (563tcf), with significant reductions in resource estimates ...

  • 11
    Trade surplus started declining in February

    ... facilitated the narrower surplus. Exports of the major items contracted both YoY and MoM (being seasonally adjusted). This can partly be explained by the YoY decline in oil prices (Urals was down 3.6% YoY in February) as well as the warmer weather in Europe (which was a significant drag on gas exports, which were down a quarter). The February data on the external balance is likely to mark the beginning of a gradual moderation in Russia’s trade surplus, as we do not see any possibility for it to ...

  • 8
    Key events are non-CIS imports and car sales for March

    ... 1.0tn (from RUB 1.1tn in February), bringing the monthly federal budget balance into the black. External trade balance for February. The YoY contraction in exports (owing to a YoY drop in Urals prices and weak gas exports due to the warm weather in Europe) in combination with rather strong growth in imports (2% YoY, according to the preliminary customs reading) might result in a lower trade balance surplus and a greater decline in annual terms. Rosstat’s consumer confidence index for 1Q13. The ...

  • 4
    Energy prices update

    ... new policy, we incorporate actuals for March and a minor re-profiling of our forecast to allow for a 1Q13 PE price outcome some USD 3/bbl above our forecast and are increasing our FY13 Brent forecast USD 1/bbl to USD 106/bbl. We are also revising our European gas price forecasts to reflect the updated Brent forecast and amending our WTI forecast for the actual 1Q13 outcome, together with the change in shape of the Brent-WTI futures spread. The supply/demand data continues to suggest that the market ...

  • 22
    Government discusses Strategy for Developing the Russian Far East and Baikal region

    ... capacity on the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway would facilitate tighter economic integration, both within the region and between it and central Russia. It would also enhance Russia’s role as a transport link between Asia and Europe. However, Russia probably cannot afford RUB 10tn. First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov suggested treating the document as a long list of desired projects, and then refining it by the end-2013 to differentiate between the mandatory and optional ...

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