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China
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22MAR13
VTB Bank signs cooperation agreement with China Construction Bank
On 22 March 2013 VTB Bank and China Construction Bank signed a cooperation agreement in the presence of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin and Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China Wang Yang. The agreement was signed by VTB Bank President and Chairman of the Management...
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11MAR13
China: Low crude oil imports might be skewed by lunar new year
China’s crude oil imports dropped to 5.4mmb/d in February, in preliminary numbers published by the National Bureau of Statistics. That is 9% down on January’s imports and 9% down YoY. Following last month’s customs data release, which had China’s crude...
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22JAN13
China: Record refinery throughput
Refinery throughput in China reached record levels in the month of December, according to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. China processed 43.12mte of crude in December or 10.1mmb/d, up 0.3% MoM and nearly 10.0% YoY. Refinery throughput has risen 4.0%...
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11JAN13
China: Robust end to 2012 crude imports
Oil prices rallied as markets reacted positively to strong Chinese import and export data. Specifically on oil, preliminary data published by China’s General Administration of Customs has crude oil imports for December at 23.67mmte or 5.5mmb/d (-0.1mmb/d MoM). That would make it the third highest monthly crude import on available records in tonnes (sixth highest in terms of barrels per day)...
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6DEC12
VTB Bank signs cooperation agreement with China Merchants Bank
On December 6, 2012, during a working visit of VTB Bank President and Chairman of the Management Board Andrey Kostin to China, a cooperation framework agreement between VTB and China Merchants Bank was signed. Under the agreement the two parties plan to enhance mutually beneficial cooperation and facilitate the development of bilateral trade and investment solutions between...
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11SEP12
Preliminary China oil data – lowest crude imports in almost two years
Preliminary data released yesterday shows China’s crude oil imports for August sharply down 0.8mmb/d MoM (-16%) to just 4.3mmb/d – their lowest level in nearly two years. This might imply sharply weaker demand for crude in August per the crude side calculation methodology (net crude and product...
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25JUL12
China: Demand down
China’s demand for oil in June was down MoM on either measure of implied demand. Under the crude side methodology, which typically yields a higher implied demand and is calculated as domestic production plus net crude and product imports, implied demand...
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13JUL12
China mends sentiment this morning; EPFR data indicates inflow into Russia
... raise more pronounced questions about the necessity of additional support from regulators. This could take centre stage ahead of the US presidential campaign and the remaining risks attached to the US «fiscal cliff». Meanwhile, today’s macro data from China, where 7.6% GDP growth for 2Q12 came just in line with expectations, confirmed the ‘soft landing’ pattern which has been aired for several consecutive quarters. And while the figure was broadly expected by the market, it suggests that the state...
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2JUL12
China waiver completes defenestration of new Iran sanctions
On 28 June, the US Administration issued «significant reduction» waivers to China and Singapore. That was the last possible date on which it could have done so, and the two countries were the last remaining significant importers of Iranian petroleum that did not already have them. In our view, the US has now substantially lessened...
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22JUN12
China: Strong growth in crude oil imports, including Iranian oil
China’s crude imports rose to a record high 5.96mmb/d in May (up 11% MoM), reversing the trend of recent months. That was an 18% YoY rise and on a YTD basis, crude imports are up 10% YoY. This led to a sharp rise in crude side implied demand, up 6.3%...
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17APR12
VTB Bank Branch in Shanghai holds conference VTB Group: Synergy of the Bank and Business in China
VTB Bank Branch in Shanghai held an international conference VTB Group : Synergy of the Bank and Business in China, during which the participants discussed latest changes in the policy of the People's Republic of China on using payments denominated in national currencies and new opportunities of trade financing between Russia and China. Over 100 representatives...
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13APR12
Commodities are holding the line on China’s credit expansion
The markets are trying to switch into risk on mode after China’s upbeat March lending data, which has shown a rapid expansion of credit: 1Q12 new loan totalled RMB 2.46tn (up 9% YoY from the RMB 2.26tn in 1Q11) and paving the way back to being on track to meet full-year the target of RMB 8tn. Meanwhile, today’s...
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29MAR12
VTB Bank Shanghai Branch gets award of China Foreign Exchange Trade System
In the course of grand annual meeting China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS)presented awards to the banks operating on China’s foreign exchange market for their achievements in the previous year. VTB Bank Branch in Shanghai was recognized as a participant which had demonstrated the...
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13DEC11
China contracts more LNG
... to be supplied to Sinopec. If the Heads of Agreement is firmed up, that would take Sinopec’s total LNG purchase commitments from APLNG to 10.3bcmpa (7.6mmtepa). As part of the deal, Sinopec is to increase its equity position in APLNG from 15% to 25%. China has been increasing its contracted LNG purchase commitments and these now stand at 51.4bcmpa (37.8mmtepa) by 2015 rising to 54.1bcmpa (39.8mmtep) by 2017, according to our estimates. The increase in contracted supply is rapidly closing the gap on...
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12APR13
IEA Data - April report
... growth estimate but leaving the 2013 demand estimate unchanged. The IEA notes several ‘bright spots’ for non-OPEC supply in 2013; namely the reported restart of South Sudan production and the restarts of Elgin/Franklin in the North Sea, Peng Lai in China and Frade in Brazil. The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply to grow by over 1mmb/d in 2Q13 and 3Q13. Even so, downside risks remain and non-OPEC supply in 2013 has been adjusted downwards by 20kb/d to 54.4mmb/d (previously 54.5mmb/d). OPEC production...
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6FEB13
VTB leads rouble-yuan transactions in Shanghai
VTB’s Shanghai branch continues to be one of the leading rouble-yuan market makers on the China Foreign Exchange Trade System and to promote national currencies for Russian-Chinese transactions. In 2012 the bank’s total value of its rouble-yuan transactions topped that of the other three market makers and had the greatest number of trading...
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21JAN13
IEA Data - January Report
... 2013 forecast to 90.8mmb/d, both up 0.2mmbbl/d from the December report. The increments come on the back of stronger than expected 4Q12 data, as demand for the quarter was hiked 0.7mmb/d. The IEA also factored in additional infrastructure spending in China in 2013, expected to bump up demand by 0.1mmb/d. Non-OPEC supply figures for 2012 and 2013 were raised 0.1mmb/d. The ‘call on OPEC crude’ was therefore raised a net 0.1mmb/d in both years, to 30.3mmb/d for 2012 and 30.0mmb/d for 2013, falling 0...
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14JAN13
Back to April highs
Global markets have made a firm positive move since the start of the year on the back of the deal on the US fiscal cliff (although temporary), coupled with eased tensions in the Eurozone and improved macro data flow out of China (its FY12 GDP growth is due to be released this Friday). Across the globe, equity indices have advanced 3% YTD, with the MSCI DM trading around a multi-month high, just a hair below the last peak at end-April 2011 (after which the market retreated...
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12DEC12
Call on OPEC
... the IEA report will also reflect that emphasis. In our view, the Brent price remains comparatively robust despite over-supply and rising inventory. Although there is arguably a slightly better current tone to global economic news, and recent robust China oil demand figures might have raised expectations that global oil demand will prove stronger than currently forecast for 2013, it looks unlikely to us that this will prove sufficient to alter the current dynamics. Without such a change, we continue...
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5DEC12
OPEC meeting heads-up
... surprise that inventories are building where we can see them and are now above the top of the range for crude in the OECD. The mismatch in crude and refinery side calculations for Chinese demand also strongly suggests that inventories have built in China by at least 50mmbbl and most likely have also increased elsewhere, given the apparent scale of the oversupply. OPEC looks likely to leave its current quota unchanged when it next meets in a week’s time on 12 December. That would also be broadly...
