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CBR

  • 23
    APR15
    Money market: FX swap nudged down below the CBR’s offer level

    Yesterday, liquidity inflows from the settlement of one-week repo and Treasury auctions helped to cool demand for the CBR’s overnight facilities. Hence, banks borrowed only RUB 40bn from the regulator in fixed-rate repo operations, leaving the FX swap facility untapped. The overnight FX swap rate closed at 14.51% (-18bp), while the weighted-average rate moved down ...

  • 21
    APR15
    Money market: CBR holds ad hoc repo auction

    The CBR conducted a two-day repo auction for RUB 230bn. Banks secured the whole size amid RUB 371bn of demand at an average rate of 14.37%. In light of this, banks reduced the volume of overnight repo to RUB 14bn. However, fresh liquidity from the CBR was ...

  • 17
    APR15
    CBR: foreign debt redemption schedule

    Yesterday, the CBR published an update on the debt redemption schedule for 2015. Overall, the regulator estimates that over 4Q14, short-term external debt (i.e. due in next 12 months) of banks declined by USD 4.1bn to USD 40.4bn; for corporates it decreased to USD 77....

  • 16
    APR15
    Money market: FX swap rate holds near CBR offer

    The overnight FX swap yesterday returned to the CBR’s offer level, hitting 15.09% at the close. The weighted-average rate gained 13bp to 14.88%. Hence, the regulator provided RUB 147bn via FX swaps and RUB 55bn via the overnight repo. VEB reported that it had allocated RUB 75.6bn of one-week deposits ...

  • 13
    APR15
    RUB: correction; another rate hike on CBR FX repo

    On Friday, trading activity increased, with the MICEX reporting USD 7.1bn in turnover. We think the retail selling flow in the morning was the main catalyst of USDRUB’s sharp dip to 50.40. However later, risk sentiment reversed: in particular, the CBR's decision to hike rates on FX repo triggered some profit taking on long positions in RUB ahead of the weekend. At the end of the day, RUB lost near 3.0% against USD, closing at 53.58. Meanwhile, Brent rose 2.7% to USD 57.3/bbl. The average EM FX ...

  • 27
    MAR15
    CBR conducts fine-tuning repo auction

    Liquidity visibly tightened yesterday amid continued tax payments. Hence, banks’ current accounts declined RUB 161bn to RUB 1.25tn on Thursday morning. Meanwhile, CBR statistics show that on 25 March, VAT and MET erased near RUB 510bn of banking liquidity. Nevertheless, we estimate that the consolidated budget is still running a moderate deficit so far in March. In the wake of this, the CBR announced an ad hoc ...

  • 25
    MAR15
    CBR increases one-week repo limit once again

    Yesterday, the CBR conducted a one-week repo auction, increasing the limit RUB 120bn to RUB 1.57tn, which we think will support banking liquidity during the tax week. The funds were taken in full, amid RUB 1.7tn of demand; and the average rate printed at 14.37%. At ...

  • 20
    MAR15
    CBR conducts ad hoc repo auction

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap was down 46bp to 14.57%, while the weighted-average rate remained flat at 14.81%. During the session, the overnight FX swap touched 15.0%, so banks borrowed RUB 15bn from the regulator in the FX swap window. The CBR provided RUB 170bn at an ad hoc overnight repo auction. Total demand printed at RUB 422bn and the average rate was set at 14.50%. This helped to ease tensions in the money market. Subsequently, banks reduced the volume of fixed rate repo to RUB 25bn ...

  • 19
    MAR15
    Money market: demand for CBR’s FX swap persists

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap closed little changed at 15.0%, while the weighted-average rate ended at 14.85% (+23bp). Hence, banks secured RUB 80bn from the CBR in FX swap operations and near RUB 127bn in the overnight repo window, even though the volume of one-week repo increased RUB 100bn. However, the latter was offset by a RUB 100bn outflow from Treasury deposits. Front-end NDF rates settled higher, with ...

  • 18
    MAR15
    Money market: CBR increases one-week repo limit

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap closed at 15.1% and the weighted-average rate printed 14.62% (+45bp). Subsequently, banks secured RUB 37.1bn from the CBR in the FX swap window, simultaneously borrowing RUB 106bn in overnight repo operations. Yesterday, the CBR increased the limit on one-week repo by RUB 100bn. Thus, the regulator provided RUB 1.45tn at a 14.43% average rate, amid total demand of RUB ...

  • 17
    MAR15
    Money market: NDF adjusts to CBR decision

    Yesterday, the overnight swap continued declining, with the average rate down 14bp to 14.17%. Yet, in the end, the rate spiked, touching the CBR’s offer level. As a result, banks borrowed RUB 76.5bn in the FX swap window from the regulator and increased the volume of overnight repo to RUB 76.6bn. Today, the Treasury is offering RUB 100bn for two-week deposits, but this would not be enough ...

  • 16
    MAR15
    Money market: CBR cut rates; dull reaction in NDF rates

    The CBR's monetary policy decision was in focus on Friday. The CBR cut rates 100bp, bringing the key rate down to 14% (for details see CBR Monetary Policy Decision – Cautious step; more to follow of 13 March). The market had priced in a rate cut of 100-150bp ...

  • 16
    MAR15
    Local sovereign debt: OFZ react negatively to CBR's decision

    The OFZ curve opened stronger on Friday, but the price action reversed after the CBR's monetary policy meeting. We estimate that the OFZ curve priced in about a 200bp rate cut, so the 100bp decision spurred a wave of profit-taking. However, we highlight that trading flows were relatively subdued. Nevertheless, the curve moved up 20-25bp ...

  • 13
    MAR15
    Money market: all eyes on the CBR

    The key event today is the CBR’s monetary policy meeting: the market is looking for a rate cut and only its size is under debate. In particular, front-end NDF rates have rallied this week, so a 100bp rate cut could even be a disappointment now. Yesterday, 1M NDF picked up 11bp ...

  • 12
    MAR15
    Money market: waiting for the CBR

    ... declined 200bp to 14.0% yesterday, yet the weighted-average rate for the whole session printed at 15.11% (-10bp). The liquidity situation improved on the back of continued fiscal spending, which allowed the banks cutting down the overnight repo debt to CBR to RUB 54bn (-RUB 219bn). Meanwhile, the Treasury announced an additional deposit auction for RUB 50bn for today, but it would still not be enough to cover this week’s maturities in full. Front-end NDF rates moved up 20-30bp yesterday, with 1M closing ...

  • 11
    MAR15
    Money market: CBR keeps liquidity tight

    The situation in the interbank market improved yesterday, as the total volume of banks’ correspondent accounts in the CBR surged RUB 165bn to RUB 1.2tn thanks to the injections of liquidity from the fiscal side. Still, the overnight FX swap closed near 16.0%, while the weighted-average rate for the whole session printed at 15.2% (+20bp) as the CBR decided to keep a relatively ...

  • 10
    MAR15
    Macro week ahead – CBR monetary policy meeting

    ... is to present February car sales data and the Ministry of Finance is to release budget execution numbers for last month. Data on external trade in January are due for most of our CEEMEA universe (Russia, Turkey, Hungary and the Czech Republic). The CBR is to hold its monetary policy meeting on 13 March. The main focus this week is on the CBR monetary policy meeting. Recent dataflow has seen further evidence of fast normalisation in the sequential inflation run rate, which slowed to 1.9% MoM SA in ...

  • 10
    MAR15
    RUB: consolidation ahead of CBR’s policy meeting

    ... behind RUB's appreciation. Equally important, in our view, was the normalisation of the spread between the overnight FX swap rate and RUONIA, which has remained slightly above the zero mark since mid-February, thanks to USD liquidity injections by the CBR.

  • 6
    MAR15
    CBR officials on monetary policy reaction function

    Yesterday, CBR First Deputy Governor Dmitry Tulin, who took office in January and assumed responsibility for monetary policy from Ksenia Yudaeva, made some comments on monetary policy in an interview with Reuters. First, he said that monetary policy is tight, if ...

  • 25
    FEB15
    Money market: CBR surprises with low offer at one-week repo

    Yesterday, the CBR announced just RUB 1.43tn in one-week repo, down RUB 20bn from last week. However, rouble liquidity is to be in greater demand this week amid the tax payments. Hence, the CBR allocated the whole lot at an average rate of 15.74% amid RUB 1.7tn of demand....

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