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CBR
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16MAY13
CBR is not ready for a bolder step
Yesterday, the CBR left short-term repo rates unchanged, but cut the rates on medium-term refinancing tools 25bp (including the minimum 3- and 12-month auction lombard and repo rates, one-year fixed repo rate, as well as rates for loans backed by non-market assets (312-P)...
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13MAY13
Key events are CBR monetary policy meeting and economic policy meeting
This week, the CBR holds its regular monthly meeting on monetary policy and by 15 May Igor Shuvalov and Elvira Nabiullina are to propose changes to economic policy that will be discussed at the meeting with President Vladimir Putin. Also, the week is to contain a number...
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11APR13
CBR announces preliminary banking stats for March
Yesterday, the CBR announced preliminary banking statistics for March. The MoM growth of the corporate loan book accelerated to 0.9%, from 0.4% in February, and while retail rose to 2.2%, from 1.7%. However, this was still below respective MoM increases of 1.9% and...
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4APR13
CBR still threatens inflation risks but expects they to abate
CBR Head Sergey Ignatiev commented on monetary policy at the XXIV meeting of the Russian Banks Association. The key takeaways are as follows. The regulator is still concerned about inflation risks. Headline CPI is likely to return to the CBR’s 5-6%...
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3APR13
CBR gently launches easing cycle
Yesterday, the CBR left short-term repo rates unchanged, but cut the rates on medium-term refinancing tools 25bp (including the minimum 3- and 12-month auction lombard and repo rates, one-year fixed repo rate, as well as rates for loans backed by non-market assets...
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1APR13
Key events are CBR’s monetary policy decision
This week starts with the regular meeting of the CBR’s Board of Directors on monetary policy (2 April) and the final estimate of GDP growth in FY12 and 4Q12 (2–3 April). The CBR is due to publish its preliminary estimate of the BoP in 1Q13 (2–3 April). On Wednesday, the State Duma Committee on the Financial...
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21MAR13
CBR posts retail deposit rates
The CBR has published the statistics for the average maximum retail deposit rate at the ten largest retail deposit taking banks. For 11–20 March, the rate of 9.71% was down 27bp from the 1–10 March level and coming off from close to record levels of around...
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18MAR13
CBR becomes more dovish
Last Friday, the CBR left all key interest rates unchanged: the central policy rate (minimum auction repo rate) remained at 5.50%. Overall, the tone of the statement was a bit more dovish, with a slightly greater focus on economic risks. Importantly, the CBR dropped...
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13MAR13
CBR posts preliminary banking sector statistics for February
The CBR has announced preliminary banking sector statistics for February. The corporate loan book grew 0.4% MoM (vs. -0.2% in January) and the retail portfolio increased 1.7% MoM (0.8%). YoY growth accelerated in the corporate segment to 15% YoY (from 13...
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11MAR13
Key event is CBR’s monetary policy decision
This week includes the regular meeting of the CBR’s Board of Directors on monetary policy (15 March). We also expect the February statistics on non-CIS imports (customs, likely at the beginning of this week), on the sales of new passenger cars (AEB, 11-12 March) and on the federal budget balance...
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11MAR13
Putin comments on new CBR head
Answering journalists’ questions on the next governor of the CBR, President Vladimir Putin said that he had a suggestion which was “unexpected, but you will like it.” We now see increased uncertainty over the next CBR governor: not only has the probability of a new candidate increased significantly (such a candidate...
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21FEB13
CBR posts interest rate statistics for January
The CBR has published interest rate statistics for January for up-to-one-year corporate loans and retail deposits, excluding Sberbank. Corporate lending rates declined sharply 40bp MoM to 10.0%, while retail customer account rates fell 20bp MoM to 7.0% (retail...
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14FEB13
CBR posts preliminary stats for January
The CBR has published preliminary banking sector statistics for January. The corporate loan book declined 0.2% MoM, although its YoY growth accelerated to 13.6% from 12.7% in December. The retail portfolio was up 0.8% MoM (39.7% YoY or broadly flat vs December)...
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13FEB13
CBR Monetary Policy Decision
Yesterday, the CBR left all key interest rates unchanged: the central policy rate remained at 5.50% and the unified required reserve ratio was set at 4.25% by lifting it on residents’ liabilities from 4.00% and decreasing the ratio on non-residents’ liabilities from...
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11FEB13
Key event is CBR policy meeting on Tuesday
This week includes January’s statistics on the federal budget (12-13 February) and the CBR releasing the external trade balance for December (11 February). In addition, on Wednesday Rosstat is due to release its regular weekly CPI data (for 5-11 February). However, heading the list is the CBR’s policy meeting, scheduled for 12 February...
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6FEB13
CBR publishes first monetary policy report
The CBR has published its first monetary policy report, giving a detailed view on the current macroeconomic situation and monetary policy. We welcome the publication and believe that the CBR will continue to improve its communication policy. The report...
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4FEB13
Key events are the CBR’s monetary policy decision and CPI for January
The main event coming up is the CBR’s regular Board of Directors monthly meeting on monetary policy (scheduled for the first half of February). We are also set to see the release of the full-month report on CPI growth in January (due 5-6 February). On Tuesday services PMI for the first...
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31JAN13
CBR stats suggest decline in retail deposit rates
The CBR has published the maximum retail deposit rates for the top 10 largest retail deposit taking banks. At the end of January, the rate declined 12bp to 9.88% from the mid-month level. We assume that, in the near term, the seasonal decline in lending...
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23JAN13
CBR posts January stats for maximum retail deposit interest rates
The CBR has posted statistics for the maximum retail deposit rates at the top ten largest retail deposit taking banks for 11-20 January. The rate increased 35bp to 10.0% from the 9.65% posted throughout December and the first ten days in January. The unusual...
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22JAN13
Shuvalov says that CBR should opt for rate cut
Yesterday, Bloomberg printed an interview with First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov concerning monetary policy and other issues. The key takeaways are as follows: In order to stimulate growth, the CBR should opt for a cut in base rates of up to 100bp. Low and stable inflation is a key priority for the government. Shuvalov said that current CBR Chairman Sergey Ignatiev had performed monetary policy independently, based on the Central Bank law and...
