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CBR

  • 6
    NOV14
    FX policy - CBR dirty floats RUB, fine tunes FX refinancing facility

    Yesterday, the CBR effectively shifted to a dirty float FX regime and made the terms of FX repo more attractive. Changes to the intervention mechanism The CBR commits to sell (purchase) USD 350mn per day once the value of the bi-currency basket reaches or goes beyond ...

  • 6
    NOV14
    RUB: negative reaction to CBR’s policy changes

    Yesterday, RUB weakened near 2.6% against USD (44.87) and surrendered around 2.4% vs. BASKET (48.90). Overall, during the day USDRUB traded as high as 45.00. This was in reaction to the news of the CBR’s changes to the FX policy. Meanwhile, the EM FX index lost near 0.6-0.7% vs. USD with ZAR and TRY trading down near 1.0%. Overall, we think the pressure on RUB is now driven first and foremost by domestic clients’ flow, especially, household ...

  • 5
    NOV14
    Macro week ahead – CBR's reaction to re-intensifying pressures on RUB

    Re-intensifying pressures on RUB require additional policy action on top of the rate hike last Friday to stabilise the situation on the FX market, but it remains to be seen whether the CBR is prepared to act quickly. Apart from the CBR's potential reaction, we await monetary policy decisions in Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as a fresh CPI report for October from Rosstat. Pressure on RUB intensified again late last Friday ...

  • 5
    NOV14
    CBR raised rates 150bp last Friday

    The CBR raised policy rates 150bp last Friday, but ruled to leave the intervention mechanism and FX refinancing facilities unchanged. The CBR’s decision last Friday was a bold move to calm the FX market and address concerns over rising inflation expectations....

  • 30
    OCT14
    Local sovereign debt: weaker ahead of CBR meeting

    ... terms, with RFLB 28 closing up 8bp at a yield of 10.05%. Meanwhile, on the belly of the curve, the yields moved up 10-15bp, with the bulk of bonds traded at yields of 10.20-10.25%. Hence, the curve has become visibly inverted now in anticipation of CBR tightening.

  • 27
    OCT14
    Money market: all eyes on the CBR this week

    ... liquidity to rise, given the sizeable volume of Friday’s FX interventions and MET payment to the budget. Hence, it is no surprise that the regulator decided to conduct a RUB 330bn two-day repo auction today. Meanwhile, the key event this week is the CBR’s MPC on Friday. The CBR is facing an unenviable task this week. It is terms of trade shock, rather than the short-term spike in inflation that is of greater concern, and the shape of adjustment to this shock and, consequently, the CBR’s policy ...

  • 13
    OCT14
    Macro week ahead – eyes on RUB and CBR comments

    .... Otherwise, GUS is to present September CPI reports It is the behaviour of the rouble, rather than the publication of statistical data, that is likely to remain in focus this week. In this regards, there are two critical questions: when will the CBR draw the line and why are households still so tolerant towards persistent devaluation? These questions are obviously interconnected, but we shall try to address them separately. First, the current conditions on the local FX market very much resemble ...

  • 3
    OCT14
    Money market: overnight FX swap falls to CBR’s bid again

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap rate closed at 5.69%, i.e. hitting the CBR’s bid. Banks secured USD 473mn from the regulator. Meanwhile, NDF rates did not chase that move. In contrast, 1M NDF closed 2bp higher at 7.45% and 3M NDF widened to 7.78% (+6bp). Longer dated NDFs picked up 10-15bp, with 12M closing at 8.21%. XCCY ...

  • 26
    SEP14
    Money market: CBR reveals terms for the October 312-P auction

    ... morning banks had near RUB 1.36tn on correspondent accounts in total, while we think they need a maximum of RUB 1.0tn in order to meet the regulation for minimum reserve requirements and run clients’ day-to-day operations smoothly. Meanwhile, the CBR has announced the terms for the next 312-P refinancing auction, which is to take place on 13 October (settlement T+2). The regulator is going to offer RUB 600bn for three months. We highlight that about RUB 564bn of outstanding 312-P debt matures ...

  • 17
    SEP14
    RUB: in the black thanks to the CBR

    ... Regarding the latter, we highlight that exporters are to be selling FX already next week to meet the MET payment. Therefore, tactically and technically, RUB looks undervalued right now. However, late in the evening USDRUB slipped to 38.27 on the back of the CBR’s announcement of FX swap sell/buy operations. Hence, at the end of the day RUB firmed 0.15% against USD.

  • 17
    SEP14
    CBR – launches new sell/buy FX swap facility

    Yesterday, after the market closed, the CBR launched a new USDRUB sell/buy overnight swap facility to provide dollar liquidity. The implied yield would be around 5.50%, which is lower than the actual money market level. In line with our expectations (see our RUSSIA – CBR Monetary Policy ...

  • 17
    SEP14
    Money market: CBR subtracts liquidity; record rate at Treasury auction

    Yesterday, the CBR provided RUB 2.15tn at the one-week repo auction against RUB 2.56tn of demand. The average rate printed at 8.12%, up from 8.09% at the previous seven auctions. Hence, the volume of outstanding repo is to decline RUB 100bn today. Meanwhile, the State ...

  • 12
    SEP14
    Rates: CBR meeting is the main event

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap remained near the lower bound of the interest rate corridor at 7%, while the interbank rates and RUONIA were at 7.5-8.0%. Meanwhile, the NDF/XCCY rates adjusted upwards on the back of weaker RUB and possible reaction of the CBR to inflationary risks. The 3-month NDF rate closed at 8.35% and 2-year XCCY rate closed at 8.46%. Moreover, the CBR settled the 3-month 312-P auction and the volume of asset loans moved up to RUB 2.8tn, thus, about 60% of banks’ refinancing is done ...

  • 11
    SEP14
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview – Credibility vs. reason

    The CBR is to meet on 12 September to discuss monetary policy. Yesterday we published a preview. The front page is provided below. Although we continue to see little fundamental reason for additional tightening, ‘credibility rationale’ might prevail,...

  • 8
    SEP14
    Macro week ahead – CBR caught between a rock and a hard place

    The CBR meets this Friday to discuss monetary policy. This week also offers a blend of economic data reports, among which we highlight the CPI reports for August in Hungary and the Czech Republic, as well as the first estimate of economic growth for 2Q14 ...

  • 19
    AUG14
    CBR increases RUB flexibility – One step away from float

    Effective yesterday, the CBR amended the parameters of its intervention mechanism to further increase RUB flexibility, in particular: The floating operational band was symmetrically widened from RUB 7 to RUB 9; Interventions in sub bands were effectively eliminated, and thus ...

  • 31
    JUL14
    MinEconomy – pushes to dilute CBR independence

    ... Interfax, the Ministry for the Economy has sent a proposal to President Vladimir Putin, outlining several modifications to the current inflation-targeting regime. Among other things, they envisage: a special mechanism, involving cooperation between the CBR, MinEconomy and the Ministry of Finance when defining the inflation target; the possibility to tweak the inflation target, even after approval; and widening the inflation target band (currently 3pp) to accommodate for one-off shocks. As we have ...

  • 28
    JUL14
    CBR Monetary Policy Decision - Praiseworthy, but premature and risky

    In a surprise move, the CBR raised its key policy rate 50bp to 8.00% last Friday. The regulator seems to be sending this strong message in an effort to affect policy decisions outside its direct control. However, while praiseworthy, we think communication might have been a ...

  • 25
    JUL14
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview - When talk is better than walk

    The CBR is set to meet today to discuss monetary policy. Although the macroeconomic picture has not altered materially enough since the last meeting to push the CBR out of its wait-and-see stance, the reescalation of geopolitical tensions has raised concerns ...

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