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CBR

  • 13
    OCT14
    Macro week ahead – eyes on RUB and CBR comments

    .... Otherwise, GUS is to present September CPI reports It is the behaviour of the rouble, rather than the publication of statistical data, that is likely to remain in focus this week. In this regards, there are two critical questions: when will the CBR draw the line and why are households still so tolerant towards persistent devaluation? These questions are obviously interconnected, but we shall try to address them separately. First, the current conditions on the local FX market very much resemble ...

  • 3
    OCT14
    Money market: overnight FX swap falls to CBR’s bid again

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap rate closed at 5.69%, i.e. hitting the CBR’s bid. Banks secured USD 473mn from the regulator. Meanwhile, NDF rates did not chase that move. In contrast, 1M NDF closed 2bp higher at 7.45% and 3M NDF widened to 7.78% (+6bp). Longer dated NDFs picked up 10-15bp, with 12M closing at 8.21%. XCCY ...

  • 26
    SEP14
    Money market: CBR reveals terms for the October 312-P auction

    ... morning banks had near RUB 1.36tn on correspondent accounts in total, while we think they need a maximum of RUB 1.0tn in order to meet the regulation for minimum reserve requirements and run clients’ day-to-day operations smoothly. Meanwhile, the CBR has announced the terms for the next 312-P refinancing auction, which is to take place on 13 October (settlement T+2). The regulator is going to offer RUB 600bn for three months. We highlight that about RUB 564bn of outstanding 312-P debt matures ...

  • 17
    SEP14
    RUB: in the black thanks to the CBR

    ... Regarding the latter, we highlight that exporters are to be selling FX already next week to meet the MET payment. Therefore, tactically and technically, RUB looks undervalued right now. However, late in the evening USDRUB slipped to 38.27 on the back of the CBR’s announcement of FX swap sell/buy operations. Hence, at the end of the day RUB firmed 0.15% against USD.

  • 17
    SEP14
    CBR – launches new sell/buy FX swap facility

    Yesterday, after the market closed, the CBR launched a new USDRUB sell/buy overnight swap facility to provide dollar liquidity. The implied yield would be around 5.50%, which is lower than the actual money market level. In line with our expectations (see our RUSSIA – CBR Monetary Policy ...

  • 17
    SEP14
    Money market: CBR subtracts liquidity; record rate at Treasury auction

    Yesterday, the CBR provided RUB 2.15tn at the one-week repo auction against RUB 2.56tn of demand. The average rate printed at 8.12%, up from 8.09% at the previous seven auctions. Hence, the volume of outstanding repo is to decline RUB 100bn today. Meanwhile, the State ...

  • 12
    SEP14
    Rates: CBR meeting is the main event

    Yesterday, the overnight FX swap remained near the lower bound of the interest rate corridor at 7%, while the interbank rates and RUONIA were at 7.5-8.0%. Meanwhile, the NDF/XCCY rates adjusted upwards on the back of weaker RUB and possible reaction of the CBR to inflationary risks. The 3-month NDF rate closed at 8.35% and 2-year XCCY rate closed at 8.46%. Moreover, the CBR settled the 3-month 312-P auction and the volume of asset loans moved up to RUB 2.8tn, thus, about 60% of banks’ refinancing is done ...

  • 11
    SEP14
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview – Credibility vs. reason

    The CBR is to meet on 12 September to discuss monetary policy. Yesterday we published a preview. The front page is provided below. Although we continue to see little fundamental reason for additional tightening, ‘credibility rationale’ might prevail,...

  • 8
    SEP14
    Macro week ahead – CBR caught between a rock and a hard place

    The CBR meets this Friday to discuss monetary policy. This week also offers a blend of economic data reports, among which we highlight the CPI reports for August in Hungary and the Czech Republic, as well as the first estimate of economic growth for 2Q14 ...

  • 19
    AUG14
    CBR increases RUB flexibility – One step away from float

    Effective yesterday, the CBR amended the parameters of its intervention mechanism to further increase RUB flexibility, in particular: The floating operational band was symmetrically widened from RUB 7 to RUB 9; Interventions in sub bands were effectively eliminated, and thus ...

  • 31
    JUL14
    MinEconomy – pushes to dilute CBR independence

    ... Interfax, the Ministry for the Economy has sent a proposal to President Vladimir Putin, outlining several modifications to the current inflation-targeting regime. Among other things, they envisage: a special mechanism, involving cooperation between the CBR, MinEconomy and the Ministry of Finance when defining the inflation target; the possibility to tweak the inflation target, even after approval; and widening the inflation target band (currently 3pp) to accommodate for one-off shocks. As we have ...

  • 28
    JUL14
    CBR Monetary Policy Decision - Praiseworthy, but premature and risky

    In a surprise move, the CBR raised its key policy rate 50bp to 8.00% last Friday. The regulator seems to be sending this strong message in an effort to affect policy decisions outside its direct control. However, while praiseworthy, we think communication might have been a ...

  • 25
    JUL14
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview - When talk is better than walk

    The CBR is set to meet today to discuss monetary policy. Although the macroeconomic picture has not altered materially enough since the last meeting to push the CBR out of its wait-and-see stance, the reescalation of geopolitical tensions has raised concerns ...

  • 23
    JUL14
    Money market: banks source additional liquidity from the CBR

    ... provided at the one-week auction. In both cases, the average rate printed at 7.57%. Separately, banks got RUB 50bn from the Treasury on one-month deposits at an average rate of 8.10% amid RUB 80bn of demand. Separately, banks secured RUB 133bn in the CBR’s FX swap window. Thus, banks are preparing for the heavy taxes ahead, while also boosting the average balance of correspondent accounts in order to comply with the averaging regulation. Thanks to the liquidity injection at the one-day auction, ...

  • 21
    JUL14
    Macro week ahead – hawkish CBR on hold – NBH tempted to ease further

    Central bankers' meetings in Russia and Hungary are in focus this week, while the statistical agenda is rather light, with the June CPI report from South Africa and the weekly CPI in Russia of most interest. The CBR is likely to stay on hold, according to consensus, although hawkish rhetoric is here to stay, especially in light of still elevated food inflation. Renewed pressure on RUB, following the recent escalation in geopolitical tensions once again, complicates ...

  • 18
    JUN14
    CBR tweaks intervention mechanism

    Yesterday, the CBR announced further changes to its FX intervention mechanism. The no intervention zone was widened to 37.35-42.45 (from RUB 3.1 to RUB 5.1) and the area with the $100mn interventions was eliminated. The amount of daily target interventions in the remaining ...

  • 16
    JUN14
    Macro week ahead – CBR decision: hike possible, but not probable

    The dominant theme this week is the CBR monetary policy decision today. Also in Russia, Rosstat is due to release its monthly package of economic statistics for May, starting with data on IP and then proceeding with statistics on internal demand and the labour market. On Wednesday, the ...

  • 28
    APR14
    CBR Monetary Policy Decision - Sledge-hammer credibility?

    On Friday, the CBR announced an unexpected 50bp hike in all rates, with the key rate at 7.50% from 25 April, as a response to elevated inflation and risks for its FY14 target. Respectively, FX swap now costs 8.50%, while the deposit rate is 6.50%. On a separate note,...

  • 25
    APR14
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview - No surprises ahead of the holidays

    Today, the CBR policymakers are to decide on the benchmark rate. The regulator explicitly signalled last time that no cut was possible until at least June. On the opposite side of the policy reaction spectrum, rate hikes are only possible if there is significant ...

  • 14
    MAR14
    CBR Monetary Policy Preview - Sitting this one out

    Today, the CBR is due to take its first monetary policy decision after the emergency 150bp rate hike in early March. We see no grounds for policy rate changes at the current stage. On the one hand, uncertainty related to geopolitical tensions remains too high ...

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