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RUB: volatile session


Oil and the FOMC meeting meant that RUB was jittery yesterday. RUB opened flat, but Brent slipping below USD 49.5/bbl spoiled risk sentiment, triggering profit-taking on the Russian FX market. Throughout the Moscow session, RUB was on a downward trajectory, ignoring Brent’s attempts to recover. In the evening, the pressure on oil mounted, sending Brent as low as USD 48.3/bbl and RUB to 66.20 against USD. However, after the non-event FOMC meeting, Brent bounced to USD 49.5/bbl, but failed consolidate there, ending the session at USD 49.1/bbl (-1.4%). Trailing oil, RUB returned to 65.00 against USD for a while, but closed lower at 65.49 (-0.1%). At the same time, the BASKET closed 0.7% weaker, as EUR rose to 1.144 against USD.

n the run-up to the FOMC meeting, risk appetite on the EM markets was subdued. However, in the morning, EM currencies slipped into the red, although they managed to pare some intra-day losses after the Fed’s decision to leave the fed funds rate target unchanged at 0.0-0.25%. BRL underperformed again, falling 1.7%, ZAR was down 0.7%, while TRY weakened 0.5%.

Maxim Korovin, Tatyana Chernyavskaya
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, oil

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