Yesterday, the Russian FX market had a strong session, visibly outperforming peers, despite the meltdown in oil prices. RUB kicked off stronger right from the morning, touching 67.80 against USD at the opening. In the second half of the session, RUB gained more support and even flirted with 67.20 at one point. However, drying liquidity coupled with crude’s negative dynamics trimmed some of RUB’s intraday gains, so RUB closed at 67.53 for a rise of 0.7% against USD. Trading activity was moderate: MICEX turnover printed only USD 3.6bn. The EM FX space traded on average 0.2% stronger, though TRY remained under pressure, falling 0.4% yesterday. At the same time, BRL bounced, gaining 1.5%. Commodity-based currencies were mixed: AUD rose 0.7% and NZD inched up 0.2%, while NOK fell 0.3%.
Unlike RUB, oil posted another heavy session, losing 3.7% over the day. In the morning, Brent quotes moved below USD 48/bbl and ended the session at USD 46.4/bbl. Nevertheless, recent oil market statistics provide signs of fragile stabilisation, which means that from a fundamental point of view RUB has room for upside, if Brent consolidates near USD 50/bbl.