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RUB: resisting pressure

 
14.09.2015

RUB ended the week on a softer footing, finding no support on the oil market. Brent slipped into the red right from the morning, testing USD 47.2/bbl in the middle of the day. With the opening of the US markets, oil bottomed out, but failed to close above the waterline: Brent stopped at USD 48.1/bbl, surrendering 1.5% over the session.

Oil’s correction shaped the dynamics on the Russian FX market, though this time RUB looked much more resilient than in the recent days. At the opening, USDRUB hit 68.00, then hovered near 68.20 for most of the session. The CBR’s decision to keep the monetary stance on hold was in line with our expectations and the market consensus, so RUB’s reaction was rather contained. In the evening, RUB got a boost on the back of the oil’s attempt to recover, but also remained in the red, closing at 68.00 (-0.4%) against USD.

The EM FX continued to trade mixed: TRY sagged 0.8%, accompanied by BRL (-0.6%) and MXN (-0.4%). On the other hand, KRW jumped 0.8%, ZAR and ILS gained 0.6%. Commodity-based peers closed 0.3-0.4% stronger.

Maxim Korovin, Tatina Chernyavskaya
VTB Capital analysts

Tags:
ruble, oil

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