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Money market: CBR substantially tightens one-week repo limit, no pressure on rates


At yesterday’s auction, the CBR offered only RUB 730bn, reducing the limit as much as RUB 0.5tn. However, the overnight FX swap market was not overcrowded with bids yesterday, with the FX swap continuing to migrate to the lower bound of the CBR’s policy rate band. Hence, the weighted average rate declined to 10.56% (-35bp), closing at 9.90%. On the back of a tighter one-week repo limit, banks increased the volume of fixed-rate repo operations with the CBR to RUB 87bn. The Treasury deposit auction also garnered solid demand of RUB 242bn, so the RUB 150bn offer was placed in full at an average rate of 10.63%. Given that, we think that the RUONIA - overnight FX swap basis moved substantially deeper into the negative territory, having been at -12bp on Monday. Hence, if RUONIA remained near the level of key rate, the said basis could have widened to -50bp already, which would be of concern for the USD interbank and FX spot markets judging by last year’s experience.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Chernyavskaya
VTB Capital analysts

money market, CBR

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