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Money market: NDF/XCCY rates up again

 
01.09.2015

Yesterday, the overnight FX swap continued to decline, falling to 10.25% by the close. The weighted average rate nudged below the key rate level, decreasing to 10.92% (-10bp). In the meantime, we highlight that on Friday the FX swap-RUONIA basis turned slightly negative (-10bp), but still remained within the normal historical range. The tax period is over, with corporate tax payments passing almost unnoticed for the system. The volume of correspondent accounts increased further to RUB 1.13bn, while the volume of sight deposits remained above RUB 200bn. Today, the CBR is holding a one-week repo auction, likely cutting the offer as it used to do after the previous tax periods. The Treasury is also tendering RUB 150bn in two-week deposits, while banks need to refinance RUB 90bn of maturing funds. Demand for the CBR’s standing facilities remained subdued, with banks securing only RUB 16bn in overnight repo operations. Regarding the near term, we believe that the bid for liquidity will gradually fade until the end of the averaging period, pushing money market rates further down.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Chernyavskaya
VTB Capital analysts

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