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RUB: propelled by oil



Yesterday, RUB advanced greatly, boosted by oil’s stellar performance. Oil kicked off on a stronger footing from the morning, easily moving above USD 44/bbl. The sawtooth upward trend in crude prices underpinned risk appetite on the Russian FX market, so RUB opened with a gap, touching 68.00 against USD in the first trading minutes. By the middle of the session, Brent crossed USD 45/bbl, while RUB reached 67.00, gaining an additional impulse from export selling ahead of CIT payments. Meantime, oil was only half way up at that moment, continuing to enjoy a decent bid in the evening. By the close, Brent surged to USD 47.6/bbl, gaining 10.3% over the day. RUB also continued to move forward, stopping at 65.89 (+4.6%) against USD and going far ahead of peers. Commodity-based currencies bounced 0.4-1.0%, with NOK outperforming. In the EM FX universe, BRL hiked 1.2%, followed by TRY and MXN, which rose 0.7-0.8%. In the meantime, Asian currencies closed little changed.


Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Chernyavskaya
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, oil

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