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RUB: global risk-off and slump in oil shape Russian FX performance


The oil market did not provide any relief for RUB on Friday. In the morning, RUB slipped to 68.20 against USD as Brent scratched USD 46/bbl. However, export hard currency selling provided some support for the market, and so USDRUB traded in a narrow range of 68.15-68.25 until mid-day as exporters faded every spike. Tomorrow, VAT and MET are due, so export selling will likely intensify today, but it would not offset the oil factor, as Brent slipped to USD 44.3/bbl this morning.

Meanwhile, on Friday, export support started to abate in the afternoon, whilst the pressure on the oil market mounted, pushing crude prices down to USD 45.5/bbl (-2.5%) by the close. In the light of this, RUB lost 1.6%, edging down to 69.18 against USD.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, oil

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