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RUB: a step backward


The beginning of the session looked promising yesterday, with RUB easily moving below 64.00 against USD at the opening. Oil was flirting with USD 50.3/bbl, providing a supportive background for the Russian FX market. However, the 64.00 mark turned out to be a strong resistance level for RUB, which rolled back to 64.20 by noon. The downward revision of EIA forecasts spoiled the sentiment on the oil market, so Brent lost ground, crashing to USD 49.2/bbl (-0.9%). Given the relatively thin liquidity on the market (MICEX turnover amounted to USD 4.2bn), RUB immediately kicked off weakening, slipping to 64.70 (-0.7%) against USD by the close. Commodity-based currencies followed oil’s dip, with NOK and NZD sliding 0.8% and AUD declining 0.3%. In contrast, Asian currencies bounced 0.2-0.3%, while KRW outperformed, rising 1.4%. ZAR refreshed all-time lows, losing 0.4% during the day, TRY fell 1.5%, and BRL dropped 1.0%.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, FX market

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