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RUB: it’s all about oil


The uptick in in crude prices was short lived, and yesterday oil resumed its correction, dragging down the Russian FX market. RUB opened weaker, but Brent’s spike to USD 51.0/bbl gave an impression for an instant that a bounce was about to happen. However, from then until the end of the session, Brent was moving south, finally edging down to USD 49.2/bbl (-2.4%). With no support from the oil market, RUB started to surrender its previous gains amid fairly decent trading flow (MICEX turnover amounted to USD 5.4bn). By the close, RUB lost 2.1%, ending the session at 64.27 against USD. Commodity-based currencies also came under pressure, with AUD falling 1.5% and NOK decreasing 1.0%. Risk sentiment in the EM space was weak too, likely spoiled by China’s 2.0% yuan depreciation. Asian currencies underperformed, with KRW and SGD losing 1.4%. BRL declined 1.1%, accompanied by ZAR and MXN, which weakened 1.0%.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, oil, FX market

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