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RUB: at a crossroads


Yesterday, USDRUB spiked at 64.0 during the first trading hour. Later, RUB touched 64.40 against USD, which turned out to be the lowest point of the entire day. However, except for the morning's volatility, the rest of the session was range bound, trading in the 64.00-64.20 range amid fairly modest flows. Overall, MICEX reported near USD 4.1bn in USDRUB turnover. EM was of no guidance: on average EM FX ended slightly in the black. However, the underlying performance was very mixed: BRL lost 1.4% having been offset by KRW (+0.7%), while ZAR and TRY moved up 0.4-0.5% and others slipped around 0.1% or closed flat. Brent traded marginally in the red during the day, but broke through USD 49/bbl in the evening and recovered to USD 49.5/bbl in the end (-0.1%). In the light of this, RUB closed at 64.03 vs. USD (-0.9%). In our view, RUB is currently trading on the assumption that its underlying fundamental variables would deteriorate further: either Brent will soon slip to USD 45/bbl or the capital outflow will intensify markedly.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, oil

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