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RUB: oil spoils track record


The beginning of yesterday’s session was quite encouraging. At the opening, USDRUB dived to 62.60 amid a fragile bounce on the oil market, consolidating a bit higher in the afternoon. For most of the session, Brent was trading in a narrow range, providing a similar trading pattern for RUB. However, just a few minutes before the end of the Moscow session, oil lost ground, plunging to USD 49.2/bbl. This move immediately translated into the Russian FX market, with USDRUB jumping to 63.70. By the close, Brent managed to recover a tad, ending the session at USD 49.6/bbl (-0.8%), while RUB closed at 63.48 (-0.6%) against USD, remaining behind the EM universe yesterday. The EM FX index declined 0.3%, dragged down by KRW (-0.7%), MXN (-0.5%) and BRL (-0.4%). Commodity-based currencies were down 0.3-0.4%, though NOK found support, gaining 0.4%.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, oil

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