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RUB: export flows miss expectations

 
28.07.2015

Yesterday, the Russian FX market moved deeper into the red amid decent trading activity. MICEX turnover increased to USD 5.7bn, but export selling flows, such as they were, were dampened by a counter-flow of USDRUB buyers. From the opening, RUB surrendered the 59.00 level, bottoming at 59.85 at noon. A second wave of pressure came late in the evening, when oil finally lost ground, falling as low as USD 53.5/bbl (-2.1%). Hence, RUB weakened to 59.65 against USD, thus losing 1.8% during the day. Meanwhile, trading in the EM FX universe was mixed: ILS outperformed, rising 1.3%, and ZAR bounced 0.4%, while TRY dropped 1.2%, dragged down by the tense situation on the Syrian border. Commodity-based currencies showed remarkable resistance to the fall on the crude market: NOK and NZD rose 0.7%, while AUD corrected down 0.2%. 

Yesterday, banks took the full limit of USD 2.4bn in the 28-day FX repo operations, which almost covered the funds maturing this week. Not taking into account today’s one-week repo auction, the volume of banks’ debt to the regulator is to decline to USD 32.7bn (-USD 64mn).

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

Tags:
ruble, FX market

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