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RUB: lacking export support


On Friday, the Russian FX market saw a more active session, with MICEX trading turnover increasing to USD 4.5bn. Despite the looming key tax dates, the balance on the market remained skewed towards hard currency buyers. At the opening, USDRUB easily broke through the 58.00 to peak at 58.70 in the middle of the day. The oil market also failed to find a stronger footing, with Brent dipping to USD 53.8/bbl, losing 1.4% during the session. In the evening, RUB even started to regain positions, but at the close it lost the ground, slipping to 58.59 (-1.2%). The EM universe traded 0.2-0.3% in the red, though ZAR and BRL came under heavy pressure, falling 1.7% and 2.1%, respectively. Commodity-based currencies followed the general trend: AUD dropped 1.0%, while NOK and NZD closed 0.3-0.5% weaker. This week, the CBR policy meeting will be in focus, but we believe that the outcome will be neutral for the FX market, as the monetary easing cycle is likely to decelerate, keeping RUB as the currency with one of the highest carries in the EM space.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts


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