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Macro week ahead – uneventful week before CBR meeting in Russia


This week is light on the data front, with only the weekly CPI report from Rosstat. Otherwise, in CEMEEA, Hungary opens the week with its MPC meeting on Tuesday, which is followed by those in South Africa and Turkey on Thursday.

As we write in our Russia Output & Demand – June; the trough is only months away, published this morning, weak demand continues to produce disinflationary pressure which, combined with the favourable seasonality in food items, is likely to bring 0.0-0.1% WoW price growth this and next week.

Otherwise, the Bloomberg-reported consensus expects a 0.1pp cut from Magyar Nemzeti Bank, a 0.25pp cut from SARB and rates left on hold from the CBRT.

Alexander Isakov, Petr Grishin
VTB Capital analysts


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