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RUB: along the 57.00 line

 
17.07.2015

Yesterday’s session was quite uneventful, with USDRUB trading near the 57.00 mark most of the day. Interestingly, the morning recovery in oil prices went practically unnoticed by the Russian market, while the evening correction contributed to RUB’s slide back to 56.95 after a short-lived bounce to 56.6 vs. USD. Hence, RUB ended the session flat, while Brent finally closed at USD 56.5/bbl, gaining only 0.3%. Meanwhile, we highlight that speculative funds continue to short sell commodities, against a backdrop of the long-awaited Iranian nuclear deal, strongly rising OPEC production, record Chinese steel and aluminium semis exports, and weak demand data for 1H15. Therefore, it seems that the pressure on oil prices is likely to persist on the medium-term horizon.

The EM universe traded weak yesterday: BRL and KRW fell 0.5%, while TRY lost 0.4% against USD. The only bright spot was ZAR, which picked up 0.2%. Commodity-based currencies also diverged: NZD slipped another 1.2%, while AUD recovered 0.4%.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

Tags:
ruble, oil

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