Rosstat has published its weekly CPI estimate with headline growth back to 0.1% WoW after the tariff-fuelled spike of 0.7% WoW the previous week. Average daily inflation is still elevated at 0.064%, but is set to come down later in the month.
Our baseline hypothesis that Rosstat has accounted for tariff indexation in a more front-loaded manner than was typical for 2013-14, when the spike in tariffs would take 3-4 weeks to trickle down fully into the headline figure, proved correct. As we have argued, tariffs’ contribution this week has come down faster than the previous year would suggest.
The coming weeks will likely see price growth sticking to near zero levels with 0.0-0.1% WoW the most likely range. This will bring inflation lower to 15.4% YoY for full July.