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RUB: behind the EM universe


Yesterday, RUB had a weak session, settling on a downward trajectory right from the morning. Trading activity was modest: MICEX reported only USD 3.1bn of turnover. Oil’s dynamics pressured RUB the most, with Brent falling 2.6% during the day. In addition, the market was looking to Janet Yellen's monetary policy testimony for hints at the timing of the fed funds rate hike. As a result, RUB slipped 0.9% against USD, edging down at 56.95.

Meanwhile, Janet Yellen’s speech contained few surprises. According to the Fed’s projections, the US economic recovery is to strengthen, allowing the Fed to implement an increase in the fed funds rate target range, perhaps as soon as the September FOMC meeting.

The fall in oil prices pushed NZD down 1.8%, while NOK and AUD slid 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively. EM currencies were also trading on a softer footing, with the EM FX index surrendering 0.4% against USD. TRY corrected down 0.6%, followed by MXN and ZAR, which slid 0.8%. At the same time, Asian currencies were resilient, closing generally flat to Tuesday’s levels.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, FX market

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