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Macro week ahead – Rosstat to show declining CPI growth in June


In Russia, Rosstat is to publish two CPI reports: its weekly CPI estimate and the full data for June, while the AEB is to present June car sales data and the Ministry of Finance is to release the budget execution numbers for last month. In addition, the 2Q15 BoP report is likely to be published.

In Russia, car sales are likely to show a further modest recovery driven by the low base effects and supported by the government’s programmes. The rouble strengthening effects in 2Q15 might become clearer, with the first estimate of the balance of payments; we expect to see the current account at USD 13bn. On the inflation front, the first week of July is critical, as it provides an estimate of the effects of tariff hikes (regulated tariffs rise on average 8.3% on 1 July). On our calculations, this print will see a one-off increase in the headline to 15.4-15.5% YoY. For the June monthly print, we estimate 15.3% YoY as we factor in the break in the non-food items trend (the Bloomberg consensus view is 15.4%).

Petr Grishin, Alexander Isakov
VTB Capital analysts

CPI, Rosstat

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