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RUB: 56.0 proves a strong resistance level


The price action in the Russian exchange market kicked off with a quick spike in USDRUB to 56.0. However, it only scratched (but failed to break) the mark, as many market participants started taking profits on long USDRUB positions here. Thus, in a couple of hours after the opening, USDRUB retreated down to 55.60 before settling around 55.80. Later, the oil market revived with the price of nearest Brent futures soaring 2.6% to USD 63.6/bbl, as reports continue to highlight problems in the negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries trying to finalise the long-awaited nuclear deal. Hot on crude’s heels, RUB firmed to 55.34 against USD (+0.7% on the day). However, we expect initial reports of Saudi and OPEC production in June to show another record output month, which is likely to limit the potential bounce in the oil market.

Greece continues to dominate the headlines following yesterday’s missed payment of EUR 1.5bn to the IMF and the expiry of the second bail-out programme. At the time of writing, press reports suggested the possibility of a last second deal, with Greece apparently requesting a two-year bailout programme that contains debt relief. In the absence of any deal, the focus will be on the ECB’s review today of assistance for Greek banks after having decided to freeze the level of liquidity support last Sunday.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, CBR, ECB

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