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RUB: flirting with exporters


Yesterday, RUB surrendered another 0.4%, weakening to 54.70 against USD. The oil market provided no supportive backdrop, trading in the red for most of the day and going to USD 62.0/bbl (-0.1%) just before the close. During the session, USDRUB tried to break through 54.80 several times, but it seems that the export offer re-emerged at this level, providing strong resistance. On Monday, companies are due to pay CIT, so the presence of exporters might be visible at some levels today. However, in the near term, we still believe that RUB dynamics will be shaped by intensifying capital outflows. Trading activity slowed down a bit, with the MICEX reporting USD 3.5bn turnover.

The EM markets were marking time, with the EM FX index closing flat to the previous day. Among outliers, we highlight TRY, which hiked 0.9%, while BRL and ILS fell 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively. Despite a softer performance from oil, commodity-based currencies were trading in the black: NZD rose 0.3%, while AUD and NOK added 0.4-0.6%.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, oil

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