The sequential rate of price growth slowed to 0.05% WoW. Average daily price growth in the three weeks of June is stable at 0.007%. Fruits and vegetables continue to be a drag on the headline figure.
Our estimate of the two-digit sequential growth edged slightly to 0.049% WoW after 0.057% in the previous week, bringing the headline figure still lower to 15.56%. Seasonal pressures are likely to intensify in July and disinflation could well accelerate, as the high base effects of the 2014 ban on select food imports kicks in from August.
Policy-wise, the deceleration in the run rate is dovish and supports further easing at the CBR’s Board of Directors meeting in July.