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Macro week ahead – extension of sanctions and counter-sanctions


On Monday, the EU is likely to extend sanctions against Russia for another six months. On the data front, after the release of the top tier data for May last week, Rosstat is taking a break with only the regular weekly CPI numbers to be published. Elsewhere in CEMEEA, members of the MPC are to meet in Turkey, Hungary and the Czech Republic to decide on rates.

The week starts with the widely expected extension of sanctions against Russia at the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. According to comments from Russian officials, it is highly likely that the response would be a symmetrical extension of the existing trade restrictions but would not include further tightening or additional restrictions which could put further pressure on already squeezed consumers. The shortening of the sanctions timeline is positive and is indicative of a certain progress that is likely to mean that sanctions could be lifted altogether sooner rather than later.

In terms of data for Russia, the regular CPI print is due on Wednesday. We expect the weekly print to come near zero, or slightly negative, as seasonal pressure brings down the whole food part of the basket leading to another correction in the headline inflation to 15.4-15.5% YoY.

Alexander Isakov, Petr Grishin
VTB Capital analysts

CPI, Russia, Rosstat

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