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RUB: on its own way


Yesterday, RUB continued to move forward, paying little attention to oil’s unsuccessful attempts to recover. Trading activity moderated, with MICEX trading turnover going down to USD 3.8bn. The opening was strong, with RUB easily reaching the 54.0 level, although that proved to be a rather strong resistance level. A few minutes before the end of the Moscow session, RUB got a new impulse, firming to 53.79 (+1.4%) against USD by the close. Meantime, Brent surrendered 0.3%, edging down to USD 62.1/bbl. The EM FX index bounced 0.3% against USD yesterday, though overall dynamics were mixed in the EM space. Asian currencies weakened 0.1%, while BRL enjoyed a strong bid, adding 1.2% during the day. Commodity-based currencies followed oil, slipping 0.1-0.2% yesterday.

Another one-week FX repo auction was cancelled, as the CBR found no bids even for a tiny USD 100mn. Hence, today the total FX repo debt to the CBR is to decline to USD 33.0bn

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts


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