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RUB: oil supports the market

 
10.06.2015

Yesterday, volatility on the Russian FX market calmed down, while RUB got solid support due to the 4.5% uptick in the oil prices (Brent closed at USD 64.2/bbl yesterday). RUB opened a bit softer, having scratched the 56.10 level, but in the afternoon the oil factor started to play a major role, so RUB settled on a rising trend, ending the session at 55.55 (+0.8%) against USD. Trading activity slightly decreased, with MICEX turnover volumes printing USD 3.6bn. In the meantime, according to the latest data, the CBR conducted no interventions on the open market on Friday, for the first time since 13 May, when it started hard currency purchases. The regulator explained its decision by increased market volatility, so there have likely been no interventions this week either. Separately, the one-week FX repo auction was cancelled due to the absence of bids, so today banks’ debt to the regulator on FX repo operations is to decline to USD 33.4bn.

EM currencies looked much better yesterday, with most names trading in the black. The EM FX index rose 0.3%, driven by IDR (+0.6%), BRL (+0.5%) and ILS (+0.5%). TRY ignored the general trend, closing 0.1% in the red. Despite the rebound in oil prices, only NOK added 0.4% during the day; AUD and NZD weakened 0.2%.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

Tags:
oil, ruble

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