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Macro week ahead – May car sales, trade balance and budget data in Russia

 
08.06.2015

This week, Hungary and the Czech Republic are due to publish CPI numbers for May. Meanwhile, Rosstat is to post its regular CPI estimate on 10 June for the week ending 8 June. Otherwise, in Russia the AEB is to present May car sales data and the Ministry of Finance is to release budget execution numbers for last month, while the Customs service is due to provide statistics on external trade activity in the last spring month.

In Russia, the shorter week (Friday is a national holiday), cooling consumer demand and tight credit conditions are not supportive for car sales. In the meantime, the weekly estimate of inflation is likely to stay qualitatively the same, showing a continued correction in the fruit and vegetables category with some products already seeing increased local seasonal competition with imports (i.e. cucumbers). Additionally, the indexation of transportation costs, which made a positive contribution to the previous week's print, is likely to dissipate, pushing the run rate of inflation lower. As a result, the headline CPI is set to decrease further, to 15.6-15.7% YoY.

Otherwise, the CPI in Hungary and the Czech Republic is probably going to stay close to zero: we see the interval of expected values at 0.1-0.2% YoY for the former and 0.5-0.6% YoY for the latter. The limited increase in both growth rates is underpinned by common factors – a moderate increase in oil and food prices. Output in 1Q15 is set to dive below 2.0% YoY on the back of the high base effects.

Alexander Isakov, Petr Grishin
VTB Capital analysts

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