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RUB: behind peers


Yesterday, the Russian exchange market remained under pressure. USDRUB opened higher right from the morning and moved up to 51.94 by the end of the day, so RUB weakened 2.1% against USD. During the day, there were a couple of attempts to break the 52.0 level, but so far it has remained a strong resistance. The further decline in crude (Brent closed 2.2% in the red at USD 61.1/bbl) supported bids for USDRUB. Meanwhile, trading activity was rather high: the MICEX reported USD 5.6bn in turnover and the average daily volumes so far this year are USD 3.0-3.5bn.

RUB underperformed peers yesterday. In particular, the EM FX index firmed gradually (0.1-0.2%) against USD, while commodity-based currencies were mostly flat. Risk sentiment recovered thanks to reports that a deal could be concluded between Greece and its official creditors by the weekend.

Nevertheless, we think that unless Brent bounces back up to USD 65-70/bbl, RUB might continue underperforming EM peers, given the subsiding export-selling flow as the tax period approaches its end. In addition, capital outflows in the coming month could pick up on the back of external deleveraging and dividend payments.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, FX market

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