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Macro week ahead – weekly inflation in Russia


After the release of the top tier data for April last week, Rosstat is taking a break with only the regular weekly CPI numbers to be published this week. Elsewhere in CEMEEA, members of the MPC will meet in Hungary to decide on rates, while the 1Q15 GDP first estimate is to be published in South Africa.

In terms of statistical data in Russia, the coming week is to be rather quiet. The only number of interest is weekly inflation, scheduled for 27 May. We expect Rosstat to report another print of 0.7-0.8% WoW, which would bring the headline inflation to 15.9-16.0% YoY and increase the chances of full-May CPI reaching our projected range of 15.8-9% YoY. Thus, the CBR will have two hard numbers (16.4% YoY for April and the expected 15.8.-15.9% for May) supporting the thesis that disinflation has indeed taken hold and is set to accelerate by the end of summer on the back of the high base effect. He inflation statistics could well provide more arguments in favour of normalising the monetary policy stance further at the CBR board meeting in mid-June.

Petr Grishin, Alexander Isakov
VTB Capital analysts


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