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RUB: contained price action


On Friday, RUB ended little changed, while the session as a whole saw fairly low volatility. At the end of the day, RUB weakened only 0.05% against US, closing at 50.00. Meanwhile, RUB firmed 0.9% vs. EUR, as EURUSD dropped below 1.10 yet again: EUR had one of its biggest one-day falls in four years after moving to a three-month high of 1.1467 against USD. The ECB’s Benoit Couere said the ECB would step up its bond purchases in the next few weeks before scaling back in the summer when liquidity is thin. We think export continued selling hard currency in preparation for today's tax payments (MET combined with VAT), although trading flows were moderate: specifically, MICEX reported only USD 3.4bn in USDRUB turnover for Friday. At the same time, the performance of crude oil and general EM FX sentiment were not encouraging. Brent weakened 1.0% on Friday and finished the week at USD 64.8/bbl. The EM FX index closed 0.5-0.7% in the red vs. USD, with ZAR and TRY trading down 0.4-0.6%, while BRL lost 1.8%. In addition, NOK slipped 1.0%, while both AUD and NZD saw marked pressure as well. Today, the US and UK markets are closed for the public holidays, so the session is likely to be rather dull.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, FX market

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