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Local sovereign debt: catching the wave


Yesterday, the OFZ market saw busy trading, enjoying a healthy appetite from both local and foreign accounts. The curve opened 0.2-0.3pp stronger, gaining momentum during the day. Long-dated bonds outperformed, ending the session 0.8-1.0pp in the black. The belly moved up 0.5-0.7pp in price, while short tenors closed 0.2- 0.4pp higher. Among the top performers, we highlight RFLB 28 (YTM 10.36%) and RFLB 22 (YTM 10.52%), which hiked 1.0pp in price. As a result, the yields tightened 20bp, with the belly approaching 10.5% and the long end scratching 10.3%. Overall, the curve is pricing a near 200bp rate cut in June, which we think is a bit aggressive.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts


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