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Macro week ahead – weekly CPI in Russia


The monetary policy meeting in Turkey is likely to be making the headlines this week. On the statistical front, the incoming data is scarce: among the numbers due to be released we note the regular weekly CPI print from Rosstat, March CPI in South Africa and retail sales in Poland.

In Russia, the general disinflation trend remains in place with the headline inflation estimate edging lower to 16.8% last week on contracting demand and a strong RUB. We expect the weekly estimates of inflation to stay below 0.2% WoW. Additionally, we believe the situation is fluid in the sense that the behaviour of the weekly prints and FX in the coming two weeks will contribute to the extent to which the CBR is ready to scale back the emergency tightening.

Vladimir Kolychev, Zlexander Isakov
VTB Capital analysts


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