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RUB: consolidation


Yesterday, Brent recovered 4.6% to USD 56.8/bbl, on the back of political tensions in Yemen. However, it appears that many investors so far see the surge in crude oil as temporary. Hence, as in the previous sessions, RUB started strong, scratching 56.50 in the morning. However, as we expected, at this point the bid strengthened, pushing USDRUB quickly back up towards the opening levels. Exporters continued to sell, but volumes moderated as the peak of the tax period passed. Overall, RUB closed at 57.33 (+0.2%), despite the upturn in oil prices, while MICEX turnover declined to USD 4.7bn. Military strikes on Yemen weighed on risk sentiment across the FX universe: the EM FX index slid 0.3%, with MNX and ZAR losing 1.0-1.2%, whilst NOK slipped 0.9% against USD. Concerns regarding Saudi involvement in Yemen might provide additional support to oil prices in the near term, but are unlikely to feed into the Russian FX market, in particular, since we do not expect the political shock to have any long-lasting effect on the oil market.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, oil

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